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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/17/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Also, money!
JT
9:28
Do you think the impossible standards for starting pitchers to make the hall will be relaxed? Right now, the only pitcher whose peak will take place during the 2010’s who has a realistic shot is Kershaw. Verlander is likely going to end up 2nd in WAR from 2010-2020 and people are already saying he’s a borderline guy. Can we really go an entire decade and only point one pitcher in?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
They'll be relaxed; I assume this'll prove to be kind of cyclical. But then, we've also entered an era of starters having their lightest-ever workloads, so we'll have to re-define what makes a pitcher great in the first place. It's not 1957 anymore
Ronnie
9:30
Singles are more valuable than walks because they offer more opportunity for runner advancement, but walks are more predictable from year to year. Does this added degree of certainty lead to walks actually being valued slightly higher?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
I don't think you'll ever see a team considering a player because of the number of his singles. Teams care about overall offense, which means they care about wRC+ and contact and exit velocity. Walks tend to be at least in part a consequence of the other stuff, and plate discipline is just a part of the evaluative package
Jeff in T.O.
9:31
Which happens first (& when), the Sens win the Stanley Cup or the Mariners win the World Series? Thanks Jeff!
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
I'd guess the Mariners. Just saying that makes me sad. 10 years from now? Sure, why not
PF
9:32
Can Tulo still be a 3-4 WAR player?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
If you look at DRS instead of UZR, he was a 3+ WAR player as recently as last season
He's still pretty good
Mcmadbat
9:33
what are the chances otani actually comes over next year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
uhhhhhhhhhhh 25%?
PF
9:35
What's your take on dalton Pompey
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Modestly troubled by his blend of mediocre contact and mediocre power. There's a good player in there somewhere, build upon his defensive skills, but for the moment he's a backup until he proves otherwise
bl27
9:37
ROY in 2017 NL ? AL ?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Benintendi is eligible, right? It's Benintendi
9:38
And then I'll guess, I don't know, JP Crawford? I assume he'll be really good really soon
Marc
9:39
Pretty much 100% guarantee that TB forces De Leon to AAA for 1-2 months to start the year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
For sure. Archer/Cobb/Odorizzi/Snell/Andriese. De Leon will come up when there's an injury or a trade
Kiermaier's Engaged Green Eyes
9:41
The Rays made Wieters and offer, and he's easily better than Casali/Maile/Sucre to hold down C while Ramos rehabs. But why do I keep hearing talk about him taking DH reps when this team has players like Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza? Wieters has an 88 wRC+...
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Maybe it's just a matter of trying to think about how he'd fit if and when Ramos makes his return. Specifically because of Ramos, it's hard for me to envision Wieters going to TB, because he's going to want to have a career behind the plate after 2017
PF
9:42
Edwin Diaz or Roberto Osuna?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
I trust Osuna a little more. I think they'll both be great, but certain things about Diaz give me the willies
Mariners101
9:44
Two offseasons ago, Dave had the Nelson Cruz signing as the 4th worst. Was it because of the age and we're you skeptical as well?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Cruz was 34, and although he had just been worth 3.7 WAR, his combined WAR from the three years before that was also 3.7. Mariners gave him four years and also coughed up a draft pick. I was extremely skeptical, and yet Cruz has already been worth more than his overall guarantee
9:46
We totally missed the boat on that one. Cruz has done an unbelievable job of keeping himself fit and together and productive as he approaches his later 30s
PF
9:46
When do you realistically think MLB will expand?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Five years or so
Jason
9:47
Whos is the greatest PTNBL in baseball history?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
September 13, 1996: the Seattle Mariners sent David Ortiz to the Minnesota Twins to complete an earlier deal made on August 29, 1996. August 29, 1996: The Seattle Mariners sent a player to be named later to the Minnesota Twins for Dave Hollins.
Johnny5Alive
9:47
You think familia loses his job during suspension?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
He'll get it back
Stuafoo
9:48
At what point does increased fastball velocity start producing diminishing returns? For fun, let's assume there's no upper limit.
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
I mean, the returns probably *start* diminishing around the mid or upper 90s. But around the upper Chapman levels, you probably start seeing very little difference as you gain an additional tick. Moving from 104 to 105 will accomplish very little
Outta my way, Gyorkass
9:49
In what order do the following events happen?
Universal DH, 32 team MLB, (WS title for any one of CHW, MIN, MIL, CIN, SD, or ATL) Schilling HOF induction, heat death of universe?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Schilling, 32 teams, universal DH, the World Series title one, heat death
9:52
Schilling's already had five years on the ballot, and two years ago he finished at 52%. I think this was the year for writers to make their collective statement, but they'll get that out of their systems, and he'll end up in Cooperstown, because he deserves it
He also deserves to be booed at his induction
Jim Lonborg
9:53
The NCAA recently gathered together a bunch of respected analytics people to try to make their lousy tournament selection process less lousy. If MLB did something similar for the pace of play issue with you and Dave and some of the people from BP, 538, etc., what do you think the recommendations might be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Some form of pitch-time enforcement, tighter restrictions on challenges/replay reviews, raising the bottom of the strike zone, and then I bet we'd propose something about limiting pitching changes that wouldn't get past the approval stage
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