Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/17/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Yes, absolutely. That forecast is crazy optimistic
Guest
10:15
We think of building through pitchers being higher risk. And, in most other circumstances, we think of higher risk being associated with higher reward. But is that the case in baseball? Are there any excess returns to be had for those willing to invest in riskier assets?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Sometimes, but not close to all of the times. With a guy like, say, Buxton, sure. But take Sean Newcomb. He's a risky pitching prospect. But does he *really* come with unusually high upside? I doubt it. Risky pitchers are overrated, and "safe" pitchers are underrated
Pennsy
10:17
I'm on the team that believes people would be more patient sitting through a 3-hour game if they knew more of the players actually involved. We don't need to shorten the game by fifteen minutes, we need to publicize the talent in the League so that people are comfortable investing time to watch the players.
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I think this is one of the reasons so many teams have been shooting quirky, clever commercials. Or you see those mid-inning segments on the scoreboard where players talk about their favorite subjects in school or whatever. The league wants fans to know the players better. They just don't do a good enough job of it
Jim Lonborg
10:18
There seems to be a wishful theory floating around in Boston that Hanley will hit better as a DH because he won't have the distraction of working his ass off just to be a below-average 1st baseman. Anything to that? The DH penalty usually goes the other way, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Yes, although general rules don't apply to every individual player. I could see it potentially being true for Hanley. But then, he just had a 127 wRC+. He was really good! Tough to complain.
diderot
10:19
Mistake or not: Astros not paying the price for Quintana?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Right now, I don't think they need him. I think their rotation is okay, and the bullpen is really deep
Jon D
10:19
With everything tracked so well now, how long do you think until we get sensors in the balls or whatnot that will call fair/foul or home run or not which will, consequently, put an end to slow video reviews? Seems not that hard to do.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Five years? I'd love to see it
CJC
10:21
Do Danny Salazar's 2016 batted ball velos concern you? What are your expectations for him this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
They don't, really. I can buy him as a guy who allows slightly harder contact, but I don't think he's easy to hit or anything, specifically because he's so *hard* to hit. I think he'll be a perfectly fine and inefficient No. 2 or 3
J
10:22
Do you feel better about certain players' declines? Everyone mentions speed players but power seems to decline as well but might be masked by pulling/fly balls as well as arm, range, etc. Most seem to feel contact hitters with a good eye and control pitchers age best.
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
I think we tend to dramatically overstate our ability to predict how players and player types will decline. To call back to an earlier example, look at Nelson Cruz. We whiffed on that one bad (so far). We similarly whiffed, in the other direction, with Chone Figgins
10:24
I think the best predictor is player commitment, or drive. Related to that, a player's ability to adapt on the fly. From the outside, we don't get to know a whole lot about those things
Chris
10:24
the player who will outperform their projected wRC+ by the widest margin in 2017 is ____________
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Keon Broxton!!
JR
10:24
Am I insane for not caring about speeding up games? I like baseball. I like baseball games. I like watching them. I don't care if they are shorter because they are fun to watch. Why am I in the minority?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I'm not convinced you are in the minority. I think we all agree there are certain things about baseball that could be faster, but at the end of the day, we're all still here, and baseball is still one of the most successful industries on the continent.
Wasted time is bad for everyone, but it hasn't ruined the game. The game is still the game
IWB
10:26
Jurickson Profar. Enough to headline a deal for 1 year of JD Martinez? Not many contenders with a COF/DH need.
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
The Rangers wouldn't do that
Mario
10:26
Thoughts on Matt Wieters? What team is going to land him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Feels like he should just sign with the White Sox or something
Maybe the Angels for a year
Noah
10:27
Are you surprised by the Twins lack of moves this offseason, considering the regime change? Is this a result of Falvey and Levine not knowing what they have in terms of assets?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
I think they would've liked to move Dozier, but outside of that, there are already a lot of internal pieces that need some more time. The team wasn't in position to shake things up too much. I was surprised by the Park move, but I do get it
Chaps
10:29
Suppose a pitcher is called up from the minors, and from his first day in the majors until the end of that regular season, he only throws perfect games (assume the manager doesn't know what pitch counts are and just keeps letting him pitch). When would he need to be called up (and ostensibly, how many games will he have pitched) for him to win the Rookie of the year, Cy Young, and MVP awards?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Called up in the middle of August, for RoY. Called up around the ASB or the start of July for the Cy Young. Probably somewhere in June for the MVP
Matt Wieters
10:30
I've heard that the market for me was depressed because I am not good at pitch-framing, but my agent says that when I was a catcher for the Orioles the staff ERA was a run less than with any other catcher. Other than ERA not being a great stat, where is the disconnect?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Over the past few years, instead of just this one year, the Orioles' staff ERA was actually a good deal worse with Wieters behind the plate
E
10:32
http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/16/the-improbable-prospect-list-rise-of-robert-gsellman/ Don't mean this in a negative way at all- just think it could do you some good to read this or watch some more MLB level tape of him
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I think it's fair to find Gsellman somewhat interesting while also pointing out that, over three levels last year, he ran average strike rates and average contact rates
10:33
The end result is that he looks like an average pitcher. Which is fine, but it doesn't excite me
Robin
10:33
How do you think the M's struggles over the past decade or so has affected your fandom for there? Do you think had they been better it would have taken you longer to transfer from a full time M's blogger to a member of FG? While this year has promise, the years of disappoint are catching up to the point it's harder to be cautiously optimistic
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
I found it a lot more enjoyable to write about a bad team than a good team
10:34
When a team is good, all anyone cares about is winning more games, winning the most important games. You start to take shit too seriously. When the team sucks, and management sucks, that's when you get to be creative
JC
10:37
Was Edgar Martinez a better hitter than Wade Boggs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
At their peaks, they were about the same, but Edgar had the better offensive career. Boggs, of course, was better at hitting the baseball, but Edgar was better at hitting it hard
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