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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/24/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Some of this, of course, is just random chance, but I bet there's a link to middle infielders being smaller on average, and more athletic, and those are players who, for a long time, would've been instructed to maximize their balls in play
9:57
In other words, they'd be more aggressive in an effort to avoid deep counts
Chris
9:57
Is Delino Deshields simply a 4th outfielder or can he be a MLB regular, possible high OBP 10 home runs and 40 steals kinda guy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
At present he strikes out too much for someone without much power. Michael Bourn made a career out of this skillset, but Bourn, for a time, looked like an elite-level defender. DeShields hasn't shown that yet
J
9:59
I've been thinking about how much is speed really worth especially for outfielders since it seems it's more involved in their range. We kinda know the spread between the best and worst baserunners and range between fielders but how much of those things are from pure speed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
A lot of it is pure speed. Of course some players have better instincts and some players get better first steps, but the differences there are so small. Speed makes up much of the rest. Speed is why Billy Hamilton is so amazing in CF despite limited experience
2-D
10:01
Two people in Nicaragua fell 1500 ft into an active volcano and only suffered dehydration. What would be the baseball equivalent to this story?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Every time a team faces Mike Trout and he goes 1-for-4 with a single
Ross
10:02
Percent chance Diaz is the best closer in the AL this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
10%? He'd need some awful things to happen to Chapman and Britton
Mike
10:02
Who will have more of an impact this year for the M's, Haninger or O'Neill?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Haniger is going to be a regular in the majors and O'Neill is going to be a regular in the minors
James
10:02
Eddie Butlers role in 2017? Can Bosio get his stuff back?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Don't place any bets
Erik
10:04
Are roster spots more or less entirely pre-determined before spring training starts based on service time and 40-man roster concerns, or is there at least a nominal chance that a guy like JP Crawford could play his way onto the opening day roster, despite the fact that that would start his arb clock and force the Phillies to waive someone?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Sometimes you do see players stick right away. Trevor Story started for the Rockies last opening day. Michael Pineda broke camp with the Mariners one time. Ditto Jose Fernandez with the Marlins. Some teams are willing to overlook those service-time issues if a player really forces their hand
But just generally speaking, much of the roster is already known, and the "battles" are just about bench or bullpen depth. Teams know what they'd prefer, barring injury, and they typically get their way
Jerry DiPoto
10:06
I think you could make an argument the Mariners should sign Pedro Alvarez, Joe Blanton and one of Coco Crisp/Angel Pagan.. Which signing of those would make the most sense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Blanton, probably, although I see the argument for Alvarez
Tyson in Oklahoma
10:07
Kyle Schwarber 2017 WAR: over/under 3.5
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Under
10:08
Bryce Harper was a 3.5 WAR outfielder last season
Schwarber would either need to hit an absolute ton, or he'd need to be surprisingly effective in the field and on the bases
Miky
10:09
Hey Jeff, do you believe in Matt Harvey, 2017 and beyond? Can he be an ace again?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
We still don't have that big a record of guys pitching after surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, but I can totally buy it was a problem, and the procedure was restorative. For me there's no question that Harvey could get back to being an ace-level SP
libre
10:10
What do you do on weekends in the PNW when it's cold and rainy?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Complain
And then usually force some kind of hike somewhere anyway
10:11
If you have the right gear then being out in the rain isn't so bad
Alfalfa
10:11
Where do you stand on Cotton v. Gsellman? Bigger impact in 2017, and beyond?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
I am pro-Cotton
I feel like Gsellman comes up in every single chat
And every single time I point to his weak competition and his mediocre numbers in the minors
10:12
I get it! He's interesting! He's not *that* interesting
TampaRay
10:12
Jeff, thank you and Fangraphs for your fun polling project. Would you do it again during the season? Also, what numerical values did you use for each category?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
I rounded off to -6, -3, 0, +3, and +6. Should work well enough
10:13
Don't plan to do it again during the season. Not sure how that would work.
Ross
10:13
What are you looking for this spring out of Felix? What is the road map to a 5 WAR season out of him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
All I'd be looking for in spring is velocity. Nothing else right now worth measuring
10:14
Come April, then I'll be interested in his strike rate and general command indicators
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