Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/24/17
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Raindog
10:14
Odds on the Royals going fire sale with Hosmer, Cain, Moustakas, Escobar? And how much good would that do the franchise?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
If they made a bunch of midseason trades, they're not getting much back for those guys. Escobar and Hosmer, at this point, aren't very good. Moustakas is interesting but a question mark. Cain would get the biggest return. But I imagine the Royals want to re-sign at least a couple of these guys
Connor
10:15
This might just be me, but I personally don't see a pace of play issue in baseball right now. Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Even if you don't see an issue right now, you can't deny the trends. There are fewer balls in play than ever, and the games are lasting longer and longer. If the trends continued without intervention, you'd see a problem at some point. Baseball doesn't want to let things get that far
Dan
10:16
What are your thoughts on the Mariners’ bullpen in 2017? MLB Network was talking about all the arms the M’s have in the Pen that can hit 100+ MPH (Diaz, Altavilla, etc.). So it seems to have great potential. But it also lacks some experience. How do you think it will play out?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
It's almost entirely about health. If they can get 150+ innings from Cishek, Scribner, and Zych, it could be dominant. But all those guys have issues. I don't know who will or won't hold up
Q-Ball
10:19
OK Jeff, please settle this once and for all. For NL teams, should the pitcher bat 8th, or 9th? What do the computers at Fangraphs HQ say?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
I *think* The Book found an advantage of like 1 or 2 runs batting the pitcher 8th. Which is to say, it effectively makes zero difference, so it'll mostly depend on the quality of the pitcher as a hitter. OK!
Salary Dump
10:21
Who looks like the most likely August salary dump trade candidate?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
You mean like a total giveaway? Someone like Brandon Phillips or Melky Cabrera
Brewers Fan
10:22
What do you think the chances Braun is traded at some point this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
40%?
Brewers could end up with a crowded outfield picture but he's not the easiest guy to deal, especially with his 10/5 protection about due
Doyouphilzme
10:23
The phils farm has gone from one of the best to a tad underwhelming. Is the rebuild stagnating or have other teams just rebuilt quicker?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
They already have a lot of potential depth at the major-league level, so that's part of it. But 2016 wasn't so friendly a year for the prospects. A breakthrough for Crawford would make everything okay
libre
10:24
The talk of the MLBPA vs Owners problems make it sound like the next CBA is going to result in a lockout or strike. How bad are things? Does unilaterally forcing rule changes while calling out the MLBPA as non-cooperative make things worse? How much worse?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I don't think anything will be done unilaterally. That would make too many people upset. I think Manfred just wanted to signal the seriousness of the issues. The more he beats this drum, the more change momentum he could generate
Darth Vader
10:25
HowdyDo you think the Rangers can extend Odor, Darvish, AND Lucroy? I would imagine the first half of the season might have bearings on whether or not they try to do that or trade Darvish and/or Lucroy for assets
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
They can definitely extend Odor but I don't see them keeping both Darvish and Lucroy long-term
libre
10:26
Does the next Dellin Betances sign an extension a la McCutchen, Bumgarner, et al?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I'm not convinced teams would feel that motivated to reach a long-term extension with a reliever
tengopreguntas
10:29
If the cubs wanted to extend kris bryant right now for 3 free agent years, what would that look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Start with the Christian Yelich terms, and then make them a lot higher
10:30
You would, of course, be talking about setting a new record
10:31
Yelich was signed after a 4.5-win season. Bryant is coming off an 8.4-win season
10:32
I can't find any record of a Scott Boras client signing an extension with so little service time
Zack
10:33
What would have to happen for Tim Tebow to make it up to the MLB this year? What's the probability of that happening?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
What's the probability of some kind of clubhouse-wide viral outbreak?
I know that teams sometimes go through the flu, but I mean something longer-term
It is closer to 0% than it is to 1%
Joel
10:34
Jonah Keri has the M's at #8 in his first "the 30" rankings. How say you, a little optimistic? Or totally fair if most things go their way...
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
A little optimistic, if only because they're not as good as the Giants or Mets, probably
But it's not far off
libre
10:36
The Mets are playing Yoenis Cespedes in CF. Are the Mets dumb or blind?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
The Mets played a lot of Cespedes in center field in 2015 and 2016 and they were good
It's far from the optimal situation, but it might be what's optimal given their actual roster at the moment
romorr
10:36
Crazy to think that signing Machado might not be in the Orioles best interest. With an aging roster, bad farm, can they really afford to surround him with the proper talent to compete? Orioles were bargain shoppers this year as they were right up against their budget.
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
That feels like the Orioles almost every offseason
The Angels get too much attention with the trade-Trout question, and the Orioles don't get nearly enough with the trade-Machado question
Bork
10:38
Marcus Stroman has said he believes the Jays have the best rotation in the league. This has to be true, right?
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