Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/24/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Last year the Blue Jays rotation led the AL in WAR and in RA9-WAR. Of course, since last year, the Red Sox have added the league's best starting pitcher, but Stroman isn't totally crazy
Baseball Randy
10:38
Will you be surprised when the Yankees are contenders this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
I'd be surprised if they contended for the division. I would not be surprised if they contended for the wild card
libre
10:39
Who plays the most innings at 1B for the Dodgers this year? 2B?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Very boringly, Gonzalez and Forsythe
Perennial Injury
10:39
Will Michael Brantley be relevant this season or is he the next Grady Sizemore/Rocco Baldelli?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Genuinely don't know right now. It's great to see him back to baseball action but I've heard some bad things about how that shoulder looks
HappyFunBall
10:40
Of the six teams that everyone seems to think are going to win 90+ games this season, which one do you think is most likely to crash and burn, and how will it happen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
A major pitching injury might be enough to drop the Astros or Nationals back to the pack. And Scherzer already has that nagging finger thing
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
10:41
So Eno brought up ads on jerseys yesterday. How do you think the public would handle medium sized ads on jerseys if it eliminated commercials?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Impossible premise. The ads would be in addition to having commercials
Marcus
10:41
In the last chat, you mentioned you were skeptical of Gsellman because you believed his fastball gains were ephemeral and he couldn't be a mid rotation starter or better with a 'cutter' as his second best pitch. Does the fact that Degrom, Matz and Syndergaard saw similar velocity gains not do anything to appease your doubts about sustaining that velocity? Second, that 'cutter' is also known as the Wharthen slider and has been a very valuable and effective pitch for many Met pitchers
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
I don't remember making any of those arguments
10:42
It certainly doesn't sound like me
So I don't know who you're thinking of!
10:43
So one more time, just last year in the minor leagues, Gsellman threw an average number of strikes and missed an average number of bats. Same thing happened with the Mets!
The velocity and grounders give him some staying power but I need to see a lot more to be convinced
Yankees
10:44
Let's say Gary Sanchez was really close to his 2016 as a true talent level. What are the odds he can sustain that over a full season as a catcher (i.e., fatigue, injuries, etc), and at that point do the Yankees *have* to move him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Move him?
Like, trade him, or move his position?
10:45
I don't think you'd have to worry too much about his numbers dropping off, given enough rest. Buster Posey, as one example, has been just as good in the second half as he has been in the first
libre
10:45
Will Chase Utley or Ian Kinsler get into the HoF?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
No
Uniforms
10:47
Which MLB uniforms would you most like to change [let's make it a little more difficult--besides the Diamondbacks]? How would you redesign the brand?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
I think the Padres just need to re-incorporate their old selves a little more
10:48
They shouldn't go all the way back to the puke years, but even the 1998 uniforms were more interesting
Jeffrey
10:48
Which team do you foresee having the best defense this year behind their pitching staff?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
Gotta be the Cubs until proven otherwise
Ross
10:48
What realistic 3 Mariners having career years gives them the best chance of a World Series?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Felix, Paxton, Zunino
Bored
10:49
What are you thoughts on Jake Lamb? Closer to his first half or second half?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
I assume it's too much of a cop-out to compromise
10:50
But we're talking about a 151 wRC+ vs. a 68 wRC+
I guess...closer to the first one?
The midpoint here is 109.5
Dylan
10:50
Mets and Red Sox are playing each other today. Who's rotation do your prefer?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Red Sox, easily
J
10:51
Why don't the projected standings align with the projected WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Appelman knows the more detailed answer but there are team-specific interactions that cause little differences
Plus the WAR numbers are based on projections and the standings are based on simulations
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