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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/9/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I don't blame teams for not budging if they've offered Eric Hosmer seven years and he's holding out for nine
9:21
There are still plenty of teams looking to spend money. They're just less willing than ever to spend too much of it
The Dodgers and Yankees are a real factor, as they try to stay under the tax. Scott Boras is no less of a factor
Travis
9:22
For all of the BSOML/putting on 20 pounds of muscle/blah blah blah stories, how much can a player really improve his game through offseason weight training? Seems like everyone talks about it but do we have any solid success stories?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
The noise overwhelms the signal. In certain cases I'm sure it can be meaningful, and, like, we'll see what happens with Kyle Schwarber. But conditioning is seldom the main reason why a player under-performs. It's usually talent. And these players are typically in pretty good shape to begin with
9:24
It's also worth considering that it's hard to maintain premium shape as the regular season wears on. So even if you show up to camp looking better than ever, your body will try to find its level in the months to follow, unless you are *very* committed
KP
9:24
Who would you rather have playing centre field for you for one season? Kevin Pillar or Mike Trout but his daily morning routine involves of half an hour of trampolining
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Trout. He could miss half the season on the disabled list and still be a great deal more valuable
capconstrained
9:27
Theoretically given the great defensive metrics for the Red Sox for their outfield, Pedroia, Bogaerts and their catchers, their team ERA should be well below FIP. It is not.

So where does all this great defense go? How does it actually effect the game? Now the easiest way to solve this is to say FIP is not a useful statistic but if FIP has any value whatsoever than the defensive statistics are really poor at measuring value.
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Over the past two years, the Red Sox rank No. 2 in baseball in road BABIP allowed. They're third in road difference between ERA and FIP. I'm guessing it's Fenway that complicates this, because it allows more hits than the average ballpark, which FIP doesn't understand
9:30
To put it another way: the Red Sox have posted an 87 ERA-, and a 92 FIP-, and those numbers are park-adjusted
Brett W
9:32
On the graph from your Franchy Cordero article, who is the player at 82/23? He is one of the slowest players in baseball and also has way-below-average power.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
I believe that would be Juan Graterol
Unsurprisingly, his big-league OPS is .493
Birddog
9:33
Would the Orioles pursuing Lynn then a Lackey/Dickey combo be a decent proposal?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
It's all about what Lance Lynn thinks he's entitled to get. All three pitchers could help the Orioles right now but they don't need to give Lynn like ninety million dollars
David lawrence
9:34
Since you climb mountains and such you might be able to give a good opinion on this question. At what elevation would baseball playing stop being an interesting show of how thin the areas and how far the ball flies and turn into something like "these people are having heart attacks and dying? "
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
The easy answer would be to point to the Death Zone around 26,000 feet
9:36
FIFA did temporarily ban soccer games played above 2500 meters, citing health concerns
"According to FIFA, the Hernando Siles is the world's second highest stadium. The highest, 4,380 metres up in the Peruvian Andes, is home to second division Union Minas in the mining town of Cerro de Pasco."
9:38
At particularly extreme elevations, you could see massive home-field advantages for acclimatized rosters
That's one of the reasons it's not surprising that the Rockies have always played so well at home
9:39
Mexico City is more than 7,000 feet above sea level. Even aside from all the other considerations, that's a huge reason why it's interesting that MLB is thinking about expanding there
Dr Johnny Fever
9:40
Is there an opportunity for a team to make a big free agent splash while everyone else is pouting about making markets?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
In theory, no; if prices are driven low enough, then a whole bunch of teams will get re-involved
But I think this is why you shouldn't count out the Phillies for Darvish or Arrieta. They have a *lot* of money to spend and they could use the help
Steve
9:41
Do the Fangraphs projected standings factor in strength of schedule?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Not yet, but they will, when we launch our Playoff Odds page
We'll have a post about it in time
David
9:41
How do you see the Dodgers allocating Catcher innings this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Barnes a little more than half, Grandal a little less than half
Birddog
9:41
Is anyone actually shocked that nobody wants to sign the next albatross contract?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
I think the only real surprise is that Darvish hasn't signed yet, given how many similar offers he's received. Probably still just waiting on the Dodgers to clear room, if they ever do it
Russell Wilson
9:42
Should I just keep asking to have my MLB rights traded until I’ve shown up at spring training to take some grounders and give motivational speeches for all 30 teams?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Just do what Will Ferrell did and show up everywhere anyway
Alec Asher Wojciechowski
9:44
George Springer signed an interesting deal to avoid arbitration that pays him the same rate for the next two year. Has any other player bought out multiple arbitration years for the same rate before, and how will that effect his final arbitration year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
It's uncommon but I don't think it means very much. Come Springer's final year, he'll be compared against other final-year arb players. Of course, this structure doesn't make a difference as far as the competitive-balance tax is concerned
9:47
Springer, for 2018, will get paid well above the would-be arbitration midpoint. In 2019, he'll get less than he probably should. It's just moving a little money around, and for the team it's not a terrible idea since they're flush with World Series revenue
Midway
9:47
Will Arrieta's contract be worth closer to Cobb's or Darvish's?
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