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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/9/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:47
I'll say Darvish but I have fairly low confidence of that
9:48
It's just that I still somewhat trust in Scott Boras' ability to persuade an owner
Birddog
9:49
Why don't the Orioles want to consider RA Dickey? He has to be better than any of the potential backend starters they have and won't cost them more than 3-4MM...
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Probably because it's still not clear whether he intends to play this season
Hack Wilson
9:49
It feels like the longer the Darvish situation drags on the slighter the Twins chances get. Does this feel accurate to you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
That's my feeling. I think -- I *think* -- the only reason he's still out there unsigned is because he's waiting for the Dodgers to trade Matt Kemp
Erik
9:51
What do you think of Rougned Odor? He was absolutely awful last year in every way except power, but he's still just 24. Is he more likely to end up out of the league or as an above-average regular?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Strikes me as an early-peak player. Bad approach and extreme batted-ball profile that requires him to max out his power. He should bounce back and be fine this season, but there's not much more he can do unless he pulls off some kind of dramatic advancement
9:53
Whole lot of pop-ups, he pulls his grounders, and he never draws a walk. It doesn't help that his second-base defense is mediocre
Birddog
9:54
Chances that we have one of the top free agents sit out the WHOLE season and become the next Curt Flood?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
0 - 1%
Arjun
9:54
Which 30 HR, sub .250 BABIP hitter last year has a more palatable outlook/profile this season? Kyle Schwarber or Rougned Odor?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Schwarber
Schwarber actually has some understanding of the strike zone
Yanks fan
9:55
Thanks for chatting Jeff - Where do you think moustakas ends up and for how much?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Pure guesses here: Yankees on a short contract if Hosmer stays in KC, and Royals on a longer contract if Hosmer goes to San Diego
Victor
9:57
Is Chris Archer to the Brewers the most obvious trade right now? They’re the kind of small market team that desperately needs premier talent on that kind of contract (I’m skeptical they can give $80 million to Cain and $100+ million to Darvish or Arrieta in the same offseason), and while the Rays still seem uninterested in moving him unless they’re blown away, the Brewers seem like the team that could have both the motivation to acquire him and the available talented young outfielders and prospects to put together a package for him
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I think that, in theory, the Brewers would be a *great* destination for Archer
9:58
But at the same time, Archer is tremendously valuable, and the Brewers' farm was significantly weakened by the Yelich trade. So if the Rays aren't, say, in love with Brett Phillips, it might not be so easy to find an agreement
10:00
On the trade market, therefore, the Brewers might be aiming lower. And on the free-agent market, they do still have a lot of money to spend. Current payroll is only about $91 million. Longer-term, Ryan Braun departing would free up more space
I have the Brewers as a real Arrieta possibility if he can't find the years he wants
Tyler
10:01
Do you like websites?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
not many of them
Endy Chavez
10:01
Are you surprised by the overwhelming acceptance of Vlad as a HOF? Fun player and great hitter, but his career numbers (esp. WAR) don't scream HOF
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Every single person aware of Major League Baseball loved Vladimir Guerrero, so no one wants to be a wet blanket
10:03
Additionally, Vlad possessed a unique set of skills. I think he should get some credit for that, provided you don't just think of it as a Hall of Career Wins Above Replacement
Ionni
10:04
The reason the Yankees won't make the playoffs in 2018 is ______
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
If you're looking for me to say the Yankees won't make the playoffs, I won't say it, because they probably will
10:06
If it doesn't happen, however, it's probably because Judge regresses and maybe Severino gets hurt. The Red Sox win the division, the Angels get one of the wild cards, and then one other team slightly over-achieves, keeping the Yankees just outside of the picture
A big dumb idiot
10:06
Do you know when ZiPS is going to be integrated onto the player pages/depth chart projections?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
I don't, exactly, but the last couple years it's been at the start of March. I think this year we're on a somewhat faster timeline
So, fairly soon
diadem
10:07
Might we see more one year "pillow  contracts" this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
I think the idea of a pillow contract is to take a year to re-establish value. Like when Adrian Beltre was coming off an 81 wRC+. The good free agents out there don't need to re-establish value. They just need markets
Maybe I'm being too semantic. Wouldn't surprise me to see a few one-year deals pretty soon
Snid
10:09
Likelihood the Yankees trade Frazier? Do you think he would play in MLB or minors?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Short-term, I don't see it
Anthony
10:11
I know you don't often see teams trade for players they've recently traded away, but Corey Dickerson to the Rockies makes sense, no? Price tag a bit high for Tampa, Colorado has needs in the corner OF, cost shouldn't be prohibitive...
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Yeah, Dickerson would make sense there, but I wonder if there are just too many half-decent players available for cheap on the market
10:12
Like, maybe you just sign Jon Jay for $5 million or something
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