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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/9/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Give Tapia and Dahl a little more of a chance
Nick
10:13
Doesn't it kind of feel like the Cubs aren't that good?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
They're very good
10:14
I don't think they're the best team in the National League, and they've lost a little bit of the shine from the championship, but they're exceptionally strong, and they're almost certain to make another major addition in the coming weeks
Ned
10:15
Should a hit tool be included for NL pitching prospects? A handful of pitchers put up >1 WAR from hitting last year. Seems like it should be more of a factor.
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
No one is going to ever care about it enough. And most of pitcher-hitting is randomness, anyway. Madison Bumgarner aside, pretty much all of them suck
John Luther
10:16
does baseball still exist? I can't tell.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Not only does baseball still exist -- beginning next week, there will be one more spring-training camp than usual!
Expansion!
45blowzbillygoats
10:16
Thoughts on Dee Gordon making a successful transition to CF?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
I think his odds are very good. He's one of the fastest players in baseball, and he's already shown that he's adaptive
I'd be shocked if Gordon were a major liability in the field
Nick
10:18
Are you buying Schwarber stock right now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I've always believed he's going to hit, but he's not going to be suddenly fast
gump
10:19
Which team projection changes the most in the next two weeks (signs FA, other team signs FA, etc)? How much bigger are the error bars than usual given the guys left in FA
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Cubs'll do something, and that'll pad their lead in the NL Central. But I also expect the Brewers to add a starter of their own
Mr Miyagi
10:21
How rare is Aroldis Chapman's raw velocity going forward? Do we someone else who can hit 105 in, say, the next 5 years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
In 2016 Mauricio Cabrera was allegedly topping out around 103 - 104
10:22
Chapman is clearly at or around the human body's physical limit. He's like five standard deviations separated from the mean. But someone else will get there, within 10 years or so
JoshSox
10:22
Is JDM gonna go to the sox soon? Or is it more likely that he goes to the dBacks again
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
It remains hard for me to see how the Diamondbacks actually compete with the Red Sox' offer. I know the rumors are out there that the teams have similar offers on the table, but the Diamondbacks have been talking about limited financial flexibility all offseason long. I think he goes to Boston
Erik
10:23
You need to project to about 81 wins to consider yourself a legitimate wild card contender, right? PECOTA sees the Phillies as a 78-win team--one Yu Darvish away from at least being in the hunt. With so much money to spend, would you recommend they make a move like that?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
I think of the Phillies as a dark-horse, for sure. If they add one impact pitcher or maybe two lower-profile pitchers, I could see them pushing
Nate (Seattle)
10:25
If Yu is signing with the Dodgers, what prospects would they have to give up in order to move Kemp's contract? Could they pay all of 2019's salary to entice teams and still be considered under the tax for this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
The biggest issue right now is that Kemp's on-field value is almost zero
He's an adequate hitter who can't do anything else
10:28
The name I personally keep thinking about is Wilmer Font, but I don't know how much money the Dodgers would have to attach to him, if any. I know I might be the high guy on Font
10:29
What's holding this all up is that the Dodgers don't want to package a good young player with Kemp, because they like young players a whole bunch. So they're trying to get away with offering lower value. It's that Tampa Bay mindset that can make them frustrating to deal with
If the Dodgers relent and package a better young player than they've been willing to, then Kemp is off the books, and they can re-sign Darvish tomorrow if they want
10:30
I'm not actually totally clear on what the tax implications would be if the Dodgers covered only Kemp's 2019 salary. I *think* that would work?
Anthony
10:31
You and Mike Petriello have written about how the A's are targeting fly-ball pitchers, but they also led the league in fly-ball rate and launch angle offensively last year. Is there some sort of inconsistency there?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
The A's have hitters who can hit fly balls hard. But not all fly balls are hit hard. In other words, the A's have pitchers who can generate weak or moderate flies. They have hitters who can generate moderate or hard flies
Now, I'm not sure this reflects an actual strategy of theirs, pitching-wise. Hard to ignore the three names they've added to the bullpen, but it could be coincidental
Birddog
10:33
Do you think that what is going on with this years market is a "trial run" for next year and the hope that teams may drive down Harper/Machados contract range?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Won't happen. Those players are far, far too valuable
S
10:33
Why does PECOTA project Matt Chapman to be as good as Nolan Arenado and better than Machado?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
I can't speak to PECOTA but Chapman just led all third basemen in UZR and DRS even though he played a half-season in the majors
He's really good
45blowzbillygoats
10:34
Scott Boras....good or bad for baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
He's historically been an extremely effective agent. Players need effective agents. He's just also kind of annoying
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