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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/16/18
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Scott
10:05
Did you see Dee Gordon's comments about his sprint speed? He knows that 4th fastest is still fast, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I took it as a joke
Ken
10:05
What's Mike Trout's biggest flaw?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
He's the best person in the world at baseball instead of the best person in the world at diplomacy
Moltar
10:06
My baseball fantasy is Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw on the Mets, with the Wilpons shot out of a cannon in to outer space. Can you discuss this fantasy of baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
One day in the not-so-distant future we might all want to have escaped to outer space
Mike
10:07
Are the A’s closer to postseason baseball in the future or the past?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
In other words, will they make the playoffs within the next three seasons? They won't be as good as the Astros within the next three seasons, I don't think, but I still like their trajectory. Making the playoffs is sort of arbitrary. They could win 85 games as soon as this coming season
Brandon Nimmo
10:10
What is my upside? Not just this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Ultimate upside of, I don't know, Andrew McCutchen? Obviously, the likelihood is that Nimmo falls well short of that, and he doesn't have jaw-dropping power. But with discipline, speed, and bat-to-ball skills, the ceiling is high
Yandy's Biceps
10:12
Over/Under 400 PAs for these bad boys
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Under
Billy Beane
10:12
Jharel Cotton has a UCL injury :( That beautiful, beautiful change-up will probably be missing this year.
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Last season that very same changeup was a negative-run-value pitch!
10:13
Which doesn't mean this isn't shitty news
Gest
10:15
I know it's assumed pitchers adjusted to Hoskins at the end of 2017, but is there any ostensible change in the way pitchers were handling him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Maybe a little more pounding him inside, as well as fewer fastballs in hitter-friendly counts. But I wouldn't worry about it all that much; all in all, Hoskins still had a very productive month of September
Joseph
10:16
Rangers fan here.  What is your opinion of Odor?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Narrow path to being even an average player. His approach is so bad
mmddyyyy
10:17
If there were going to be a 2 team expansion with a realignment of divisions, how much notice would teams get? Seems like it might inform the contention efforts of some of the borderline teams
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
The Diamondbacks were announced as an expansion team three years before their first game
10:20
Now, in the NHL, the Vegas Golden Knights more or less became official with only one year of notice
10:21
But by that point rumors had circulated for two years. No one was surprised that the NHL was adding a 31st team
aw
10:21
Hey Jeff, any update on when the 2018 postseason odds will be launched?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
Next week!
Adam
10:21
Luiz Gohara is he the young pitcher with the highest upside amongst the prospect arms?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
Probably not. Actual upside is unknowable, and Gohara is one pitcher out of hundreds
Ben
10:22
I often wondered if Tulo's injury history was some what to blame on the thin air in Colorado and fatigue etc. However Toronto hasn't been much better to him. Is it fair to say Tulo's contract will make it extremely unlikely the jays extend Donaldson? It seems like it might be the worst contract over the next few year...
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Any potential Donaldson extension would have just two years of overlap with the Tulowitzki contract, and the second of those years goes down to $14 million. Also, the Jays feel like they're about to get an infusion of league-minimum talent
So I don't think an extension here is out of the question
Come 2020, the Jays have only $17 million currently on the books
Billy Beane
10:25
Long question: So I heard an A's coaching staff member in an interview talking about how Jharel Cotton (UCL RIP) looked good in all his Spring starts and had been 'keeping his stuff down' but he has a high spin rate fastball. Should I be concerned about that? Because you know and I know that a high spin rate fastball should be up in the zone, not down. Now I am concerned that the A's pitching staff doesn't know that.
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Cotton has a rising four-seamer, and in the past he's elevated it. But he also has a two-seamer, which he's thrown pretty often, and that should be lower. And you almost always want a changeup to be more low than high
The A's know about high fastballs. Everyone does
mmddyyyy
10:28
What numbers would you look at to quantify the toughest division for pitchers?
Jeff Sullivan
Projected runs scored per game
Here are some quick calculations:
10:29
AL East: 4.94 runs/game
AL West: 4.91
AL Central: 4.66
NL Central: 4.64
NL West: 4.61
NL East: 4.43
Now, that doesn't consider, say, the Arizona humidor, but whatever
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