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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/16/18
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DJ
10:30
You can ask a GM one thing and get a complete and honest answer: What is it
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Do you like your job
THe law
10:30
Projections all show the 50th percentile, right? With that being said, because all of Giancarlo's projections have him hitting ~55 HRs, is there a legitimate chance he could beat 73 this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
You'd need a pretty low threshold for "legitimate"
10:31
He hit 59 while playing almost every single game last year
Now he's in a tougher division in a tougher league
And he just had a career-high HR/FB%
vince clortho
10:32
How about Swihart to improve the Nats catching situation? He's out of options, and can start as a backup while getting some PAs in the outfield too. I doubt he'd cost much
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Not at all clear Swihart would improve the Nats' catching situation
Matt Klentak
10:33
With Eno & Dave leaving you have solidified your spot @ #1 Fangraphs chats. Congratulations.
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Can't wait for the ceremony
Scott
10:34
I was surprised to hear on the Dbacks preview podcast that their 2017 pitching staff had one of the best seasons of all time by ERA+ (I think that was the stat, at least). Would you project them to be a top 5-10 pitching staff this season, or was it fluky?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I think they're good! But I'm troubled by the lack of SP and RP depth. Good high-level talent, not a lot behind it
10:35
Something like 10th feels about right
J. Peterman
10:36
Let's say the Rays' 4-man + bullpen game rotation yields strong results and they want to adopt it long term. What implications does that have on roster makeup? More starters proven to go late in games? More long relievers over situational guys? More pitchers and fewer hitters on the 25 man?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
I don't think it actually changes that much; you basically just have a fifth starter who doesn't go deep. But you'd see an extra multi-inning reliever or two on the roster, and there might be extra emphasis on collecting bullpen arms with options so that you can pull off a lot of Triple-A/MLB shuffling
GM
10:37
Have you ever seen anything like the Mets' bad luck with injuries in the last few years? It looked like with Harvey, DeGrom, Thor, Matz, Wheeler, they'd have a contender for years to come. Has any team ever had a rash of injuries to such star players/prospects for such an extended period of time?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
The Mets
Mike
10:38
I would guess that learning to pitch with the same command and similar pitch behavior w/ less than full strength is really tough in terms of keeping delivery in sync, etc.
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Agreed. The key is to take something off of your fastball without just slowing your arm down. It's not easy!
MambaBlack
10:39
Hey Jeff, wanted to know you’re opinion on Ronald Acuña. Do you think he can sustain the pace he’s set in the minors?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
He's extremely good, and he's the probable NL Rookie of the Year, but I'd look for a wRC+ more in the 110-120 range than 140-150
mmddyyyy
10:39
Would moving the mound back an inch for 1 season benefit pitchers or hitters more?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Hitters
mmddyyyy
10:40
When owners save money, does it trickle down to anybody?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Every situation is different. Sometimes money gets reinvested in scouting, or tech. Sometimes money is saved for a future season when the team is competitive. Sometimes teams structure contracts to pay off signing bonuses or whatever in a low-payroll season. And sometimes the money just stays in the pockets of billionaires
Guest
10:41
Out of curiosity, is there a managing editor of fangraphs now? Will there be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Carson!
Chicks Dig The Long Ball
10:41
Do you avoid using the Burnside Bridge because of how it would essentially be obliterated in an earthquake? I know you are more of a volcano guy but fangraphs doesn't have a specific earthquake guy.
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
I mean, almost everything in Portland is subject to earthquake-related obliteration
10:42
Nowhere is safe. The upside of the big one, though, is that I'd probably get a lot of time off
Matt
10:42
When we look back on this offseason, will the slow free agency be the start of a trend? Or an aberration?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Free agency has definitely changed. I think we've finally gotten to a place where the market is no longer linear. I don't know how long it might stay that way, but free agency will continue to be kind to stars. It will be tougher on everyone else
Joe
10:43
What impact (if any) will the late signing of Arrieta and Lynn have on their 2018 season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
They'll be fine
It's Cobb who's running out of time
mmddyyyy
10:44
Which comes first: Pitch clock or NL DH?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Pitch clock, without question
GSon
10:47
We (a group on an Indians forum) had a discussion regarding the final starting spot. The feeling is, merritt and tomlin just aren't good enough, so something needs to be down. The argument arose when someone suggested the Rays sign Alex Cobb to a one year pillow deal, then trade him to the Indians for Ryan Merritt or Josh Tomlin, thus avoiding the loss of that coveted draft pick.  Some stated that was not allowed. While others said just have Cobb plus the Competitive Balance Lottery pick be part of the deal.  Who is right?.
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