Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/18/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Crawford
Erik
9:54
What would count as proof that certain teams (such as the Cardinals) have figured out things about player development that others have not? Do we know it's a skill yet, or could it be luck?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
We don't *know* much of anything because it's so difficult to study. But in theory, you could run a bunch of math to calculate "expected" system output based on drafting positions and scouting reports. And then you'd just have to calculate the difference between actual output and expected output. My guess is the Cardinals would show a strongly positive difference. Matt Carpenter is a great example of why
9:56
These narratives end up being driven by the fates of small numbers of players, and that's an issue. But I really do feel good about the Cardinals on this subject
Jaack
9:56
Thoughts on Barry Bonds beating Giancarlo Stanton in a home run contest? On the one hand its probably spring training fluff. On the other hand, I'd like to believe that Barry could step in and hit 20 dingers this year.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I think Stanton came out and disputed that the next day but I'd be lying if I said I didn't love the original story
9:57
Definitely got me wondering about Bonds yesterday afternoon. I wonder what a realistic aging curve would look like. How would Bonds hit at his current age, given how rested he probably is, health-wise, since the last time he played?
Is it stupid to think Bonds could at least be a functional pinch-hitter? Is it not stupid? I have genuinely no idea
Jake
9:58
Is Brandon Crawford reaching 20 HR again this year out of the realm of possibility?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
No. I like him a lot
People talk about Correa as the best shortstop in baseball right now but on a single-season basis, for 2016, Crawford has to be pretty close, to me
Outta my way, Gyorkass
9:59
Who will be the worst defender in the major leagues this year among "everyday" position players?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Matt Kemp or Mark Trumbo
Guest
10:00
your angels article got me thinking..... that team really isnt very good. do you see a 75 win season as probable rather than possible at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
I don't think it's *probable*, but if this Andrelton Simmons arm problem is a bigger deal than they're letting on, then down, down the team slides. Weaver might not be able to help. Wilson might not be able to help. Pujols can't stay totally healthy. This could be the worst team in the division without too much bad luck
Chris
10:01
If Kershaw gets injured for a significant period of time, is the Dodgers season over?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Nah. They'd still be at least as good as the Diamondbacks
Mike
10:02
Should Ray Searage, I don't know, open a school or something? Seems like he has a lot more to offer all of baseball. Are we being short changed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
What's cool about this, for Pittsburgh, is how the reputation has developed and spread. So now instead of the Pirates just collecting interesting arms, troubled pitchers are actively seeking out the Pirates
Players see Pittsburgh as a place where they can get their careers turned around. That's a real advantage for them
10:03
Granted, it's a real advantage in acquiring pitchers who have most recently been not very good
Daniel Carroll
10:03
On a scale of 1 to Stanley Cup Playoffs, how good of an event is the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
In fairness, I don't pay attention to it, but from what I recall from when I *did* pay attention to it, it's a lot of fun but then it fades quickly once the first few rounds are over. Nowhere close to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Don't @ me
Buff
10:04
Does Matt Kemp finish the season as a Padre?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I don't know who would want him
Phillies113
10:05
There's DEFINITELY more to the "Chris Sale is upset re: LaRoche's son" story than Chris Sale being upset about LaRoche's son, right? It doesn't make sense that Sale would be so upset unless there was more behind-the-scenes drama we don't know about.
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I can't pretend to know a quarter of what's going on in this story, but if I had to guess, Sale's main problem is less about Drake LaRoche, and more about Williams seemingly trying to make demands of a clubhouse he spends very little time in
10:06
Now, if Williams was just taking the bullet for other rostered players, so be it. But Sale probably thinks it should be a team issue, or at least a team + coaching staff issue. Doubt many players like the idea of getting clubhouse orders from the suits upstairs
Guest
10:07
do you agree with dave that the dodgers have a top 3 rotation in baseball? seems ridiculous to me but he speaks with conviction
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
The complicating factor is that when people talk about the best rotations, they like depth and they like pitcher consistency. Dave is talking about straight cumulative WAR, which would be coming from Kershaw and a collection of like a dozen other guys
10:09
The Mets, for example, look great, and they have five or six guys they're counting on. The Dodgers can't match that lineup pitcher for pitcher, but they have so much depth, and Kershaw gives them a huge leg up. I do side more with Dave on this
10:10
I just ran the numbers and the Angels are projected, slightly, to have the best outfield in baseball. 12.3 WAR, to the Pirates' 12.1, and the Marlins' 11.5. This is similar to me. For the Angels, it's almost all about Trout. That's a lot of value to be tied up in one player. But why shouldn't it count? Value is value, right?
Matt
10:10
How long should the Braves hold Swanson, Albies, and Mallex Smith down? They were excellent in camp.
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
No reason at all to rush them, especially with Aybar around. Room gets opened up if Aybar moves in July. And while Smith is close, the Braves can at least wait to see if Olivera hits
Erik
10:11
What skill set ages better: Pederson's power and patience, but low contact, or Franco's contact and power, but low patience?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
I want to say Franco
mtsw
10:12
Do you feel that there are marginal, AAAA type players who would eventually become average MLB players if they had the opportunity to see major league pitching consistently for several years? Always felt many guys in that category never have the same opportunity as guys who got called up younger with more potential?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Baseball kind of works against the less exciting, lower-upside types. Everyone everywhere tries to evaluate players by their ceilings, and if a player's ceiling is maybe being a 2-3 WAR corner outfielder, that guy is going to have a tougher time breaking through, compared to a raw, toolsy player who could be an All-Star
Right now my brain is saying to me "Steve Pearce!"
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