You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/2/18
powered byJotCast
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
9:05
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Dan
9:05
Do you see new signee Danny Valencia getting playing time in Baltimore?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Surprisingly yes. Wouldn't be shocked to see him open as a platoon partner for Colby Rasmus
In the outfield
In the major leagues
F. Rodney
9:06
How long do you think I can keep my job!
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
My hunch is that Rodney keeps the job all season, with maybe a week or two spent "figuring it out" in a low-leverage role. To Rodney's credit, he still throws super hard, and although he's wild he's never been easy to hit
I hate the experience of watching Fernando Rodney close, but the results aren't so bad from a distance!
Jimmy
9:08
How about those Blue Jays?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Is this a reference to spring training standings
Is this a reference to spring training standings after seven games
A big dumb idiot
9:08
Like you, I was a curious how the horrible AL Central would impact the Twins projection. So, using depth charts projections and accounting for strength of schedule (weighted records of all opponents) here are the projected win totals for AL WC contenders: Jays: 86.2 Twins: 83.8 Angels: 82.2
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Feels about right. As soon as we launch our 2018 playoff-odds page, I'll have a post up that uses our own schedule-adjustment math
GP
9:11
On EW the other day you mentioned that Byron Buxton had started to figure things out over the second half but didn't seem that impressed with Jorge Polanco. Looking at his splits, he had virtually the same wRC+ (1st half, 2nd half and overall) as Buxton but with better plate discipline. He was also batting third pretty consistently in the second half. Should we be talking about Polanco more as a breakout candidate, at least offensively?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Sorry for that delay. Allow me to share with you an incredible split
9:13
Polanco, first three months: .280 wOBA
Polanco, last three months: .339 wOBA
Polanco, first three months: .276 expected wOBA
Polanco, last three months: .279 expected wOBA
9:14
I don't mean to suggest we should always get all tied up in xwOBA over all else, but I don't actually see meaningful evidence of improvement in here
9:15
For the sake of comparison, over the same time spans, Byron Buxton went from .254 to .300
JTT
9:15
I understand the argument that opt-outs are bad for teams, but why do smart teams keep giving them out? Especially in this market when teams have more leverage than usual.
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Opt-outs are player-friendly by themselves, but in real life, opt-outs come at a cost. When a team includes an opt-out clause for a player, the total dollar commitment is reduced (by approximately the value of the opt-out clause)
9:17
It's a way for teams to provide value that doesn't count so much against payroll and the competitive-balance tax
Bob Dobalina
9:17
Jeff, what's your favorite cheese? Are you a muenster guy? I bet you're a muenster guy.
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
goat
Nelson
9:17
Can we stop saying that Hosmer cost 135 million more than Duda or Logan Morrison? The Twins and Royals will most likely have salaries to pay a first baseman for the 7 years after 2018 also. Its apples and oranges, Jeff!
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Well, no, that is apples and apples
9:19
It would be apples and oranges to say that Hosmer cost $135 million more than the Twins and Royals' first-base situations
But that's not how anyone talks
THE Average Sports Fan
9:20
If signing a starter makes sense for a team like the Phillies, why not the Reds?  Position players and bullpen is pretty good.  1 good starter to secure the rotation allows the many options they have to have to fit 4 not 5 spots.
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
The Reds could use a starter too -- obviously -- but I think the argument mostly comes down to resources. The Phillies can afford to spend a lot more than the Reds, or the Brewers, and the Phillies' current payroll is incredibly low
9:22
Like, if you're the Reds, you could sign Alex Cobb for three years or something, but that's, say, $48 million over three years, which meaningfully impacts future flexibility. The Phillies' flexibility would be impacted far less, because they have almost zero commitments, and they can maintain a top-5 payroll if they wanted
Hendrik
9:22
Is there an MLB franchise with a future outlook as bleak as the Senators? And in a Canadian market ffs.
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
:(
Nap
9:24
Callaway has mentioned Lindor multiple times when discussing Rosario in the past few weeks. Think Rosario can be a poor man's Mr.Smile?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
As I compare the two, I'm pretty sure that Francisco Lindor is better at everything
Rosario is faster, but that's about it
9:26
Rosario last year had an average exit velocity of 84.7. Lindor's low point was 87.0, in 2015
9:27
Rosario's EV last season topped out at 105.5. Lindor has topped out at 112.1
Perfectly reasonable to say that Amed Rosario can become good, but Lindor is one of the most valuable players in the game
Load More Messages
Connecting…