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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/2/18
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Erik
10:18
Let's say you could start an expansion team in 2018 using the All-Star roster from some previous All-Star team. How far back could you go for that team to still be a playoff team? How far back for them to at least not be the worst team in the league?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Let's see. the 2013 NL All-Stars had Harper, Votto, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Molina, Carpenter, Posey, Kershaw, Kimbrel, Chapman...
I don't know what you'd do with all three first basemen. Trade one!
10:20
The AL All-Stars the same year had Sale, Verlander, Trout, Cano, Darvish, Machado, Perez, Encarnacion, Scherzer...
You could do well with 2013
KilleBrews
10:21
Whats your best guess as to what Yankees do with 2B/3B to start season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
Still feeling Wade/Drury, but with neither of them feeling particularly comfortable about their job security
A friend
10:22
Willie Calhoun gets +\- 500abs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
How about 500 PA? I'll give him the over. He's not really being pushed by many other guys
brad
10:23
are the O's going to hold Hays down to get another year out of him or let him play to give the fans hope for the team's future?  Is he the next O's star player?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Hays has played basically one half-season above A-ball. They're not going to rush him
But he does look quite good. If the Orioles are going to avoid plummeting to the depths post-Machado, Hays'll be a reason why
Scooter
10:24
Who do you want to see rent Machado at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Whoever is good and needs him most
I don't know who that'll be!
10:26
For the ultimate twist, I'll say Rays
toki
10:26
Is Schwarber a legitimate threat to steal now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
No
10:27
I mean, Daniel Murphy stole a bunch of bases that one time despite not being fast, so you never know what might be possible if Schwarber decides to dedicate himself to moving up. But losing weight doesn't make a guy much better at sprinting
10:28
Thinner Schwarber almost certainly isn't much faster, and he's still going to swing and miss. This should just have him in better condition, so he doesn't wear down or fatigue as quickly. Also keeps some pressure off of his knees
Q-Ball
10:29
What is the last date that Lynn, Cobb, or Arrieta can sign and be ready to start the first week of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Kyle Lohse signed with the Brewers on March 25, 2013. He started the fourth game of the season, going six innings
10:31
Ervin Santana signed with the Braves on March 12, 2014. He started the eighth game of the season, going eight innings
Jason N
10:32
Hi Jeff.  A couple of teams have very deep farm systems.  As competitive windows open, I’ve read that it’s likely these teams (like the Padres) will probably use that depth to trade for some high-end MLB talent.  But why not trade some of that prospect depth for more prospects?  If a team with limited spending dollars can take a good prospect that’s blocked at the major league level, you could trade for a bunch of good back-field talent and extend the competitive window by creating more waves of prospects.  What’s the flaw in my thinking?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Basically that teams want to get good in the majors. That's the whole point. And you very rarely end up in a situation where a very good prospect is actually blocked
Derek
10:34
Last week you talked about five consecutive quality first round draft picks by an organization. The Nats had: Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, Giolito, (no pick), and Fedde. The first three have each recorded a season at 5.5 WAR or better. I wonder how many other teams have three (or five) first round pick sequences that good. Interesting idea for an article...
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
How many other teams have gotten to draft first, first, and sixth?
10:35
Rays went Longoria/Price/Beckham at one point. Beckham is working out at last!
Fireface
10:36
If a team wants a player to wear his cap straight on his head, the player can just keep his head cocked to the side. No big deal, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Seems like an agreeable compromise
Scott
10:36
Are Moustakas/Cobb/Lynn waiting for someone to get injured at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I wouldn't say that's exactly correct, but none of them would shed a tear in such an event
andy
10:37
if the former minor-league players win the pending wage and hour suit and teams have to start paying minimum wage, that's been estimated to cost teams an extra $10M or so a year. do you think teams would respond by shrinking the minors?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Teams definitely wouldn't shrink the minors, but in the short-term, if a few teams were really unhappy about it, they'd just take it out on their major-league payroll
10:38
Within a few years, everyone would just get on board, since every team can afford an extra $10 million
Murray Chats
10:38
So, not sure who controls this, but I have an opinion about the chat schedule. Love all the new chatters, but is it possible to break up the prospect chats a little bit? Right now there's double plain baseball chats monday and thursday, but tuesday and wednesday are just prospect guys who won't really be talking about the games. IMO that's a long time to wait until thursday if you have a question about a game from monday night. All the same, I wouldn't be positing this if I didn't enjoy and respect all of your chatters. Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
I will ask!
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
10:39
So the dust has settled and Honeywell got his surgery already. Timeline for recovery is about a year, followed by a rehab assignment. He loses no team control for now and was going to miss half a season anyway for service clock shenanigans. Am I reading the situation correctly in that the situation could just be Honeywell in mid-2019 instead of mid-2018? (Plus, of course, the chance he doesn't recover or and the increased injury risk in the future. Wonder how many guys have had to re-learn a screwball after TJS.)
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Your read is basically correct. Honeywell has simply been shifted back by a year. It's bad for him for obvious reasons, and it's tough for the Rays because their hopes for 2018 contention hinged on him to some extent
10:40
Now, I think the Rays are more focused on 2019 anyway, and they can still have enough pitching this season depending on, say, Chirinos. But losing Honeywell right after trading Odorizzi was tough
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