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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/23/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Boy could they ever use a Jonathan Lucroy pitch-framing rebound
THe law
10:46
If the Mariners aren't good this year, should the Yankees make a play for Paxton? Is Frazier, and one of their top pitching prospects (sheffield?) enough?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
If the Mariners aren't good this year, every contender should make a play for Paxton
He would be one of the top starting pitchers on the market
RK
10:47
How do you treat park changes in WAR with regards to park factors?  For example if Zona plays a LOT more pitching friendly, will their pitcher have inflated WAR for this year until the park factors account for it?  Do they get changed retroactively? How do you treat new parks?  Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
Yeah, it'll take a while for our park factors to understand changes to the run environment. So if Chase Field is pitcher-friendly this season, the pitcher and batter WAR numbers will indeed likely be off
I do think the numbers get changed retroactively
But that wouldn't be for some time
The Man With No Name
10:49
Just saw Josh Shepardson use the term "elevate and celebrate approach" in reference to Yonder Alonso.  This is a fantastic phrase and I hope it catches on.
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
It's been around
Baseball players have their own language we're seldom privy to
Sleepy
10:49
Every player is a free agent following their age-26 (or whatever) season.
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Again, then the problem shifts to competitive balance. You'd need to dramatically increase revenue sharing
Monroe
10:51
In 2013, with 2 years left on his existing contract, the Mariners gave King Felix a five year extension for $135 million. In the first 3 years of that deal he's accumulated 4.3 fWAR and it's highly unlikely he'll match that total in his next 2 seasons. Worst contract in Mariners' history?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Chone Figgins and Carlos Silva were straight-up negative assets
But, yeah, this Felix deal, unfortunately, could be a massive clunker
Sad Padre
10:52
This whole minor league pay thing seems fairly open and shut to me:  Players are under contract with the team that drafted them.  They should be given a "living" wage as long as that team asserts that they have control of the player, even if injured.

Not sure how that is controversial.  If the teams want to pay the minor league players as interns, then as interns, they should be able to quit when they want and go where they want.
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
There are various complications, and obviously the baseball industry doesn't see it your way, but I agree with you. You could say that signing bonuses don't get included in these conversations, and the good prospects tend to have received considerable sums up front. But just because a guy is a non-prospect doesn't mean he should have to share an apartment with six other teammates
10:54
Every organization could afford it. In 25 years, I think we'll look back on this as a humiliation
CamdenWarehouse
10:54
Bumgarner sucks as a hitter too
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
No he doesn't. He's below-average, by wRC+, but there are worse position players
Sonny
10:55
What's more valuable, a pitcher who can be a league average hitter or a starting position player who can be a league average pitcher for 2IP at a time?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
The latter
John S
10:56
Service time gamesmanship affects, what, about 5 players a year? let's not lose focus on the real issue, that being that thousands of players aren't making minimum wage, aren't learning a trade that will be beneficial to them, and aren't receiving an education.  where are Peter Angelos's principles on this issue?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
There are many issues. Minor-league pay is one of them. Service-time manipulation is another one of them
You don't have to try to fix everything at once
Justin
10:57
Who do you think has the tools to do so but hasn't done so yet, but could come up with an out of nowhere Judge-like 8 WAR season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
There is a 0.1% chance that Jabari Blash has been a future Hall of Famer all along
Snid
10:57
What would McHugh look like if he goes to the BrewCrew?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
Collin McHugh, in a Brewers uniform
B
10:58
What do you expect out of Lucas Giolito this season? Is he eligible for the rookie of the year award this season? He doesn't seem to be getting the hype, which may be a good thing.
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
No, he burned his rookie eligibility last year. I'm still on the fence until we have real regular-season data, but right now, I'm a lot more optimistic than I was two months ago
Kyle
10:58
What's more likely, Jon Lester puts up a sub-3 ERA a la 2016, or puts up an ERA north of 4.00 last like last?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
north of 4
OddBall Herrera
10:59
Re: the DH, shouldn't the slow death of bat-first players (ex: Bautista can't even get a job) make the NL DH a big priority for the players union?  There are basically 15 roster spots out there that could be used for experienced guys who are otherwise ending up in AAA or retired.
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
Yeah, it's part of the argument. Jobs are jobs
The ghost of Bruce Bochte
10:59
Is it even possible for the Mariner's to cut Ichiro at some point in the season? What if things go better than expected and they're in the hunt and he's hitting sub.200?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
Precisely the dilemma!
11:00
They signed Ichiro, and they hired Edgar Martinez. Can't get rid of either one of them. At least Griffey up and retired of his own volition
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