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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/23/18
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Greg
10:27
Eno talks about how Mazara has a great 2 strike approach, one of the reasons he will breakout. Would you be able to expand on that? I just don't see enough improvement from 2016
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Sounds like you want to talk to Eno, not me
10:28
Mazara didn't take any step forward in 2017 that I saw. The big thing he has on his side is his age. I'm not in love with anything else
Mazara will probably develop into an above-average hitter. That could just about cap it
Hannah Hochevar
10:28
If Colby Rasmus is an mvp candidate come September, does that mean the O's are in the playoff hunt or that the apocalypse is upon us and we should huddle in place?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
No reason it couldn't be both
Tyler
10:29
Which team has a sneaky good offence and which has sneaky good pitching
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Twins/Cardinals
10:30
or A's/Rockies, if you prefer
kevinthecomic
10:30
Regarding the Jays, projections don't just look at how good a team is, they also look at strength of schedule.  The Jays are almost certainly better than the Twins and the Twins almost certainly have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Jays.
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Even on our schedule-adjusted playoff-odds page, the Jays are projected to finish two games better than the Twins https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?lg=lg&date=pre
10:31
The schedule narrows the gap between the two, but it doesn't dissolve it
Shuck Bowalter
10:31
Why even own a baseball team if you are unwilling/unable to roster a full starting pitching staff. The Rays are setting new records for ways to be embarrassing.
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
The Rays traded Odorizzi assuming they'd have Honeywell and De Leon. Now they're down all three
They still have more than five capable starters. I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up using five capable starters. But they also have a number of potential multi-inning relievers, and, really, what's the harm in trying this?
Dodgers Front Office Member
10:33
Am I crazy for thinking Joc Pedersen can still be a regular?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
No?
Career 115 wRC+, and a WAR/600 of 3.0
10:34
Didn't take a step forward last year and he still can't hit lefties, but Pederson is more good than bad
Mr. Freeze
10:34
How do you see the Brewers rotation holding up now that they didn't land a SP in FA and lost Miley? Are you a fan of Suter, Guerra, Woodruff, other bottom of the rotation options they have?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I think they can get by with their current rotation, especially since they've made their bullpen so deep, but they're going to need Nelson to look good when he returns, or else they'll have to trade from depth
Sammy
10:35
If the Mets wanted to blow it up could they have the best minor league system in baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
So the real prizes would be Syndergaard, Conforto, deGrom, and Nimmo
I'd say...definite top 5, maybe top 3. Not sold on top 1
Acuna Mattata
10:36
I have Ian Desmond and Ryan Braun. Should I worry about either or both due to playing time expectations?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Desmond especially on account of last year he sucked
Lunch Angle
10:38
Joey Gallo has only 11 Ks in 53 spring ABs (21%). Can he make a 2017 Stanton-esque adjustment, trading excess power for some contact?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
In 2015, Gallo struck out 22% of the time in the spring
10:39
Gallo doesn't have the same sort of swing that Stanton does. Stanton's always been more of a line-drive guy, able to hit the ball in any part of the zone. Gallo's always going to have that long uppercut, so I don't think his contact ceiling is very high
Vegan Man!
10:39
Thoughts on Maikel Franco this year? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Not enthusiastic, but willing to be patient
Will be interesting if Kingery and Crawford both develop as Hernandez stays playable
Randy
10:41
What would a Correa extension look like? 12 years $250 million with an opt out after year 7?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
At this point in his career, Trout signed for six years and $145 million, buying out three years of free agency
Now, Correa obviously hasn't been Trout-good, but Trout also gave the Angels a bargain
10:44
The Astros just valued Altuve's future FA years at $26 million. He'll be older than Correa. Let's say they'd value Correa's FA years at $30 million
10:45
6/$140 million, maybe with a seventh-year option. Don't think Correa is going to want to sign away the rest of his career
Roadhog
10:45
so uh that A's rotation
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Not good
Thankful that the Puk situation doesn't seem very dire
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