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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/24/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Kind of a similar player to Murphy anyhow, and it would be good for the Rockies' depth, and for Norris' hopes of bouncing back at the plate
Phanatic
9:23
Any chance the phils trade galvis to San Diego or the Yankees before the season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Sure, decent chance. The presence of someone like Nick Ahmed muddies the waters a bit, but there's obviously a small market of teams who could use an immediate SS boost
Hi Jeff
9:24
Over/under 3.50era and 180K for Bundy and the new old cutter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Bundy is going to be much worse than those numbers
9:25
A 3.50 ERA with the Orioles, in their ballpark and division, would reflect borderline ace-hood
Fantasy Qs?
9:25
Jeff, after seeing you demure on fantasy questions, I am curious to know why you don’t play fantasy baseball--tried it and didn’t like it? never tried it? Why?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Have played it, don't play it. When I'm done with baseball work, I don't want to continue to have to think about baseball. I have other interests and a strong desire to be able to close my laptop
Kerry
9:26
Which hitting/pitching statistics are from spring training are predictive in terms of regular season success? Which aren't?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Just as a general rule, you'd be fine if you ignored everything. Literally everything. You wouldn't get left behind. But if you insist on finding an indicator of something, look at strikeout rates. Or, if you have enough info, ball-in-play rates. And obviously, for pitchers, velocity changes matter
cJ
9:28
Is playing in Coors driving Arenado's WAR down somehow? I feel like there's some kind of disconnect between his baseball card stats, defense based on eye test and where he landed on the 2016 WAR rankings.
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
There's a school of thought that we're too harsh on Rockies hitters because we adjust for Coors but don't really adjust for the Coors hangover effect. To be completely honest the whole thing ties my brain into a pretzel and I find it challenging to think around. But Coors is, of course, an extremely hitter-friendly environment, and that much we're certain of
English Bob
9:29
Can Renfroe blossom in to stardom with just a modest improvement to his plate discipline?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Subjective terms in here. You'd have to define "stardom" and "modest." He could be something like Adam Duvall
9:32
Obviously, there's upside beyond that, since Renfroe has good power and going deep is the best way to accumulate value fast
Zock Jr.
9:32
Jeff, have you seen the weirdness that goes down in Eno's chats? It's absolutely glorious and absolutely fills me with existential dread for our species.
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Chats? It's baseball chats that make you worry for our species?
Oh, Zock. There are so many valid reasons to worry for our species.
Brett W
9:35
Who do you prefer: Mike Trout, or a player named Jeff Hy-Bridich who has Christian Yelich's bat, Kevin Kiermaier's defense, and Albert Almora's service time?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Running the numbers, the latter player would be something like a 7 - 7.5 WAR/600 guy with next to zero experience
9:36
The defense would stand to decline, but Yelich's bat, of course, has big upside. So I'd take the second guy, I think
ChiSox2020
9:36
Better contract extension- Tim Anderson or Odubel Herrera?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
They're both team-friendly, like almost all of these are, but I think the Phillies stand a better chance of coming away the most happy. I believe in Herrera more than I believe in Anderson
Bill
9:38
Haniger or Felix better chance to be worth 4+ WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
This might seem crazy but I'll take Haniger? I don't think either one of them will be a 4-win player, but Haniger should contribute in every area, and I believe in his power
John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt
9:40
How big of a blow is the Will Smith injury to the Giants?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Important without being devastating. Their bullpen is still at least three good pitchers deep
Sirras
9:42
From a performance standpoint, a stars-and-scrubs team perform as well as a perfectly balanced team with the same WAR. Aesthetically, do you find one of those teams preferable to watch over the other?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
A stars-and-scrubs team might have certain stars that I absolutely love for additional personality reasons, but ignoring that stuff, I'd rather watch the balanced team, because I hate the feeling of dread that comes with watching a bad hitter or bad pitcher come in for an important situation
Ghost of Greg Maddux Past
9:43
I've been trying to find Spring Training Pitch FX data for Braves and Rays players with no luck, though it does appear to be out there for some pitchers on other teams. What gives?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
There's only a very small number of ballparks with tracking info, and none of them are in the Grapefruit League
Zach
9:44
Re: trade value. I get the surplus value arguments, I really do, but I just don't believe that if Trout, Bryant, Seager, etc. were all on the market, that the latter two would draw bigger offers than a guy who is on track to be one of the best players of all time. Yes, Trout is currently owed more money, but he's still just 25 freaking years old and has been the best player on earth for five years in a row.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Many teams would agree with you. This is not a settled argument
9:45
Trout is, simply, the best. Probably by a win or two. There's additional value in concentrating so many wins in one roster spot. The market works linearly, but it probably shouldn't
TooDamnTall
9:45
Just thinking about Koda Glover and "not being able to handle the 9th inning" narrative. Has any ex-player ever admitted they couldn't deal with the pressure of closing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Plenty have kind of hinted by saying that the 9th inning is a different beast. So there's that
Michael
9:46
Eno told someone an Econ major isn't good for baseball industry. What about having a business admin and possibly MBA?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Code. Just learn to code
Stuart
9:46
Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, Alex Reyes, Steven Matz for the next 3-5 years, rank them please.
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Well Reyes literally just had surgery
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