Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/24/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:47
So by default he's last until we know that he's recovering. Then it goes Urias, Matz, pause, pause, take a breath, get a glass of water, pause, Giolito
Phanatic
9:48
Does the new uncertainty with Kang take the Pirates out of the Quintana bidding until June or July?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
I don't think they were going to get him this month anyway
fresh basil
9:48
Oof. Jung Ho. What are my Bucs to do?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
They haven't been counting on Kang to be a contributor in 2017, not since the bad news first started coming out. They have the depth to survive this
Jeff, my dude!
9:49
Do you believe in the Nova pirates SSS?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I don't think he's going to keep walking just 1% of the batters he faces, but I do believe in his ability to throw strikes, and I think Pittsburgh is far better for his confidence than New York. Fine starter; borderline No. 2
Yellichy and scratchy show
9:50
You make my Friday morning shifts bearable.
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Take that, your boss!
Dr Morris
9:50
What happens to Kazmir if he doesn't break with the team? Disabled list?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Yeah, those are his options. It should never be hard to find a reason to put Scott Kazmir on the DL
Jake
9:51
The NL Wild Card game will be contested between?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
the freakin' Mets and Giants again
The NL right now, in some ways, is kinda boring
Bill
9:51
As you showed the Padres can 'reasonably' reach a wild card, do you think their variance of win projection is greater than for other teams? Any chance fangraphs might develop a metric to measure it for all teams?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
I don't think we could develop something like that and have it actually mean anything worthwhile and verifiable. Maybe we run thousands of season simulations and figure out which teams have the largest win-total standard deviations, but even then, who's to say we're measuring the volatility right?
9:53
What's working for the Padres is they have a bunch of young position players with recent success at some advanced level. Veterans are the boring ones; young players are less predictable, and so you could say they get wider error bars around their projections
Matt
9:54
How do you feel about the giants' bullpen now that news has dropped that Smith will most likely opt to get TJ surgery. He seemed to be one of the few guys who could get both lefties/righties out. Worried for them?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Melancon can do that and Law can do that. Strickland probably can't do that, and they need a lefty now, but they're not toast
Pete
9:55
*cue "Small Sample Size Song"* How much did Lucas Erceg's stock rise for you after his spring performance (24 ABs .417/.481/.708)? As a way too overly positive Brewers fan I'm looking for a left-handed, pabst guzzling, cheese curd eating Kris Bryant in a year or two
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Zero percent, but I'm still rooting for you
Jaxon
9:56
Jacob deGrom or Strasburg, who has the better year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Strasburg
Ryan
9:56
What is the most relevant pitching statistic to evaluate small sample sizes? K%?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Either K% or something related, like Contact%
steve
9:56
Slash lines for Haniger and Yonder Alonso please and thank you.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
something/pretty/good, something/super/boring
Mike
9:59
Think Frieri can make the Yankees opening day roster and be back to his old self?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
His fastball is there and he's always been able to miss a decent number of bats, but I'd be absolutely terrified to have that fly-ball tendency of his in Yankee Stadium in important situations
I can see him as a sixth or seventh reliever
5 Run Homer
10:00
Any minor league relievers I've never heard of that might pop up this year like Edwin Diaz? Jays could sure use one
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
I think that's the Danny Barnes role
Jumanji
10:01
Yonder Alonso o/u 10 HR
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
I'll give him 11
Jeff
10:01
Where do you stand on Gomez? If he leads off and stays relatively healthy, does he get back or close to 2013/14 numbers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
I think he strikes out too much now to get all the way back, but I can't tell you he's not super encouraging again. Extremely volatile, given what we've seen the last two years, and he's not much of a center fielder anymore, but he's electric
Looking at his catch probabilities, he's been about exactly average the last two seasons
Andrew P
10:03
What does J Schoop need to do to make The Leap this year
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Swing so, so much less
Jim
10:03
How does Fangraphs account for injury history when predicting future success? Is it possible to differentiate between someone that has had a lot of freak injuries and someone with, say, chronic arm trouble?
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