Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/25/16
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Erik
9:26
Have front offices improved to the point where we will never see another contract as bad as Ryan Howard's?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
There will be contracts that work out that poorly, but there will not be contracts that look that bad from the get-go
at least, I don't think. It's hard to remember precisely how bad the deal looked at the time it was agreed to because looking at it now would leave us vulnerable to results-based analysis
benj
9:28
Have shortstops gotten worse? It seems like there are 4 or 5 really good SS and then oh no
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Overall, league shortstops have been around the same level for the past 15 or 20 years
Always with an OPS about 5-10% worse than the league average
9:30
I think shortstops are actually arguably improving. Look at the youth today. Correa, Seager, Bogaerts, Lindor, Simmons, Crawford, Russell...
myra
9:30
What (or who) is Story's floor/ceiling for both defense/offense?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
I think he's an adequate defensive player. Offensively, he's always going to hit a ton of fly balls, so he'll be valuable if enough of them get out. If so, he'll offset a low BABIP with power. If not, he'll suck
I like his strikeout gains, but he's going to continue to swing and miss. I imagine he's going to have some massive home/road splits as long as he's on the Rockies
Wiz
9:31
Who has the bigger year, Tulo or Xander? and does Xander have any chance of hitting close to 20 HR?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
I take Xander by a hair, and while he does have the ability to hit 20 homers, I suspect he comes up short
mtsw
9:33
Did you listen to the latest Statcast podcast? They discussed the big correlation between CF positioning and effectiveness (guys who play shallow do worse, guys who play deep do better, Kiermeier is a huge outlier on both measures). How sure are we that the deep/shallow thing isn't a result of the inputs to DRS/UZR rather than actually making OFs more effective?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
It could be that better outfielders just prefer to play deep, while worse outfielders prefer to play more shallow to try to cut down angles. I'm just speculating here but this is an example of an interesting data point for which we don't yet have a strong explanation. Gotta be careful not to assume what we can look and notice is causative
The Ghost of Dayn Perry
9:35
Good morning, Jeff. What kind of music do you enjoy?
Jeff Sullivan
Erik
9:36
How long should a player's past prospect status count for anything? Should we look at Domonic Brown any differently than another 28-year old with negative WAR through almost 500 games?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Brown was a top prospect before 2011. That's a long time ago. At this point I think it's irrelevant
9:37
Prospect status is important before you have a major-league track record. Once you're seeing these guys regularly in the bigs, it doesn't matter nearly so much how they were thought of when they were younger
9:38
Jesus Montero was a top prospect. Great! I've seen him in the major leagues. I'd like to not have to do that anymore
Scott
9:39
What would it take for MLB to shorten spring training? Managers not playing their starters for the first two weeks?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I don't think it is to be shortened. It's way too long for position players, but pitchers kind of need the chance to ramp up at a conservative pace. Don't know what there is to be done about that
9:40
Maybe you could have position players just report later. They don't seem to need the work. But this doesn't seem like a high priority for the league
9:41
And even then it's still ending at the same time
SS
9:43
Reasonable extension for Brandon Belt (if the Giants should even offer him an extension)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Maybe something like 5/$90m?
CamdenWarehouse
9:45
Carson on RF made me happy
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Reading that made me hate my own PPR
I get that maybe some readers would've preferred more analysis, but that was so Carson, so 100% Carson, and I loved it dearly
PJ
9:46
Hi, Jeff. If a bad 3rd base coach sends a runner home and he gets gunned down by 20 feet, does that count against the player's baserunning value, even if he didn't make the decision to go home? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
The numbers don't know better -- they put it all on the player. And over long enough, you'd think it would balance out. But sometimes, yeah, it's just bad coaching, and we can't separate those out automatically
The Ghost of Dayn Perry
9:47
Roberto Osuna recently said he'd prefer to be a reliever instead of a starter. Which would you prefer?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
I always prefer these players get chances as starters, but I can get over it. I got over it with Chapman
Erik
9:47
Which young Phillie is most likely to win an MVP/Cy Young one day: Crawford, Franco, Nola, or Velazquez?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Crawford, no question
Crawford might even have a better Cy Young chance than Velasquez
Zorak
9:48
Rank for this season and beyond: Socrates, Arquimedes, Adonis?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
don't forget coach Euclides Rojas
Scott
9:49
Which Korean player do you think has the highest WAR this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Of the new ones or overall? Overall it's Kang
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