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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/25/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Otherwise, Park by a little bit over Kim
The Ghost of Dayn Perry
9:50
Predict the trade with the biggest impact this season!
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
aw what the hell, let's get Tyson Ross to...the...Astros?
let's get Tyson Ross and Derek Norris to the Astros!
Josh
9:53
What's going on with Jeff Sanardzija? Typical spring caveats or legitimate reason to be concerned?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
his career spring ERA is like 6 so already there's a history here
9:55
It seems to me the stuff is there and that's the greatest concern. The stuff, the release points, they're about normal. Worry in April
Zorak
9:55
How long until the Mets OF goes full platoon to minimize Cespedes' time in center?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
This is the right time for Cespedes to be making his mistakes. He'll probably get his share of defensive replacements, but I think he'll be only a slight negative CF
As for yesterday...I don't know what that was about. That wasn't really a talent mistake. That was a I-don't-want-to-bend-down-for-this mistake.
Would've seemed clever if Bucknor hadn't walked all the way out there to make him look like an idiot
Brett W
9:57
Vintage Pedro or vintage Kershaw?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Peak Pedro is as good a pitcher as there has ever been in the world
10:00
Between 1999 - 2003, Pedro allowed a .537 OPS. In each of the last three years, Kershaw has allowed a .521 OPS. The average AL OPS in those Pedro years was .771. The average NL OPS in those Kershaw years was .703.
Pedro: 70% of average
Kershaw: 74% of average
actually closer than I expected! but Pedro's PEAK peak was absurd
Anthony
10:01
There seems to be a lot of talk w/ young players, if player "X" improves their 25-30% K rate they could be really great. Grichuk and D. Santana are a few recently w/ this lablel. My question is...how often does this actually happen? Are there examples of guys K'ing 30% of their AB's, and suddenly bringing that mark down to 15%?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Players almost never cut strikeouts down by *that* much. But players do improve their plate-discipline numbers to some extent from their rookie seasons. That much is known. Mostly I think you see the biggest gains in the minors -- once a player reaches the majors, he's selected for having been mostly a finished product
One player I was thinking of recently: Adrian Beltre used to strike out at a league-average rate. Now he's at almost half the league average, which is crazy
2-D
10:03
What do you think a peak Cody Anderson season could look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I really do think peak Cody Anderson could look like Matt Harvey. Now, the question is, how close is Cody Anderson to his peak? There are gains yet to be made. As is, I believe in him as a big-league starter
PitchesBrew
10:03
A couple days ago a rumor broke that Lucroy nearly went to Houston in a deal that also involved the Braves. Care to speculate which other players would've been involved?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I don't think anything "nearly" happened. Lucroy has been rumored with the Astros, Rangers, and Nationals, but they've all walked away after hearing the Brewers' ask.
With what Stearns has been looking for, a Lucroy deal just wasn't going to happen.
abestinkin
10:04
tyler white or AJ reed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Reed
Scott
10:05
Does Schwarber play good enough defense at C/LF to get 600 PAs this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Nah
Nick
10:05
Who's the Nationals' starting CF by the end of the year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Still mostly Revere
Guest
10:05
little early to call it but will the Mariners win the carson smith trade?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Odds are more heavy in their favor now than they were a few days ago, yeah
Bruce Bochy
10:06
My hitters are outstanding but how many games need to be lost to cut the cord on Peavy and Cain and going with Heston and Blackburn?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Going to give the veterans the initial shot because if you don't, you're getting into your depth at the start of the season. Which means, then, you don't have any depth left
10:07
The Giants need to preserve their options. Could mean an extra few losses in April if the veterans are awful, but they'll take that chance
JDogg
10:07
follow up on giolito- when do you anticipate he gets called up? Do the Nationals have some sort of Super 2 to wait for?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
They'd love to wait until after the estimated Super 2 deadline, but it won't be a deal-breaker if someone gets hurt, and/or if Giolito is dominating. Expect something like 18-20 big-league starts
Chase Utley
10:08
Fill in the blanks: I need to be average __ WAR over __ years to make the hall of fame.
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
uhhhh...4/4? I'm sorry to say it's not going to happen
Jake
10:10
Suppose both Taylor's amazing hitting and Werth's struggles carry into the regular season. How long until a change is made? As bad as paying Werth $21M to ride the bench would be, isn't it worse to pay him $21M to actively cost you wins?
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