Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/25/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Give it, I don't know, a month and a half. If, at that point, Werth still blows, then Baker will definitely want to give Taylor his opportunity
The money gives Werth the initial advantage but when the season is underway, it's wins that matter the most
mike sixel
10:11
Will Buxton hit much this year? I admit, I am beginning to wonder if Cameron's bearish view of that tool is true.......Off topic, not sure we can afford to live IN Portland, so now looking at Beaverton or Hillboro or something like that. We'll be out there next week, best non-sour heavy brewery to visit (not that I expect only visit one)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Go to Breakside. Breakside Breakside Breakside! And order nachos. Good god, the nachos
10:13
I'm presently unconvinced Buxton's ever really going to hit past .260. That would make him out to be a disappointment. But it would also make him out to be underrated, given his expected running and defense
Seems lined up to be both helpful and frustrating.
2-D
10:13
Any breakthroughs on your theory of "changeup movement emulating fastball movement could equal success" yet?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Haven't pursued it yet beyond eyeballing a few things. I do think that if you have a cutting fastball, you want a cutting changeup, and if you have a tailing fastball, you want a tailing changeup, but right now that's just an idea
Kiner's Disembodied Hands
10:15
Do you see McCutchen's apparent leg injury last year really putting a damper on his defensive numbers, and that we might see at least a modicum of improvement for him there this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
The numbers have never really loved his defense. And now he's coming up on 30.
Crusty Juggler
10:16
Is a big, warm hug the cure to all of life's ills?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Yes, for the duration of the hug
Pretty Tony
10:16
Tigers pitching, which gave up the most runs in baseball last year, is already decimated with injuries (well, not technically because that's not what decimated means but w/e). Is there any hope in a bottom-of-the-rotation featuring two of Boyd, Greene, or Pelfrey?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
I actually don't hate the group but I think I'm higher on each pitcher individually than the consensus. I like what Greene did as a rookie, I like that Pelfrey's stuff played up last year, and I like what Boyd did in the minors. You could ask for better depth, but I'd argue the bigger questions for the Tigers are at the rotation's front
tj
10:19
thoughts on Joc's new swing?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Haven't looked at it yet. Would be a good Farnsworth question. As a rule, no matter what, Joc is always going to swing and miss, in between the dingers
Josh
10:19
Are people expecting a little too much from Carlos Rodon in 2016? He's only 23 and has a ways to go on improving that walk rate.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
People expect too much from pretty much every hard-throwing young prospect. But we all get teased by ceilings, and baseball is more exciting that way
Zorak
10:21
Is starting a top prospect in the bullpen a long-term wast of resources? Hard to top 80 innings or so out of the 'pen, so if they get stretched out the following year, it's gonna be a good number of seasons before they can handle a 200+ inning workload, no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
The Osuna thing, basically. I do think it hurts a starter's development to begin in the bullpen. At least, if he begins in the bullpen exclusively. So then it's a question of trying to balance the long-term for that one player against the short-term for the team. Good argument to be made that, while Osuna might now have a more difficult time starting, it was important for last year's Jays to have him in relief
10:23
For whatever it's worth, if a prospect has a history of starting, and *then* he goes to the bullpen, it might be easier to stretch him back out than it would be for a long-time reliever. So if a guy goes from 140 innings to 70, he might then be able to go to 160 or so, and then 190 or 200
Obviously, it's a case-by-case basis deal
Corb
10:24
What pitcher has the highest watchability/quality ratio? Great looking stuff, average results (probably significantly higher than expected contact rate at least)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Stephen Strasburg when he's bad
10:25
Garrett Richards is a tempting one. His stuff is insane
Kole
10:26
If you ran the Phillies, would you trade every player in your farm system for Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, Noah Syndergaard, and Gerrit Cole (at their current contractual terms), under the condition that you then have to fill all of your minor league roster slots with the very worst NCAA D-III/NAIA players in the country, and can't make a single amateur talent acquisition for five years (once Trout, Harper, Correa, Syndergaard, and Cole all become free agents, unless you extend them somehow)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I'll pass
Andrew Britton
10:26
Do you think a team takes a chance on Mark Buehrle or is his career likely done?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I think he's finished, and happy
mtsw
10:27
A lot of Dylan Bundy optimism going around. Jon Heyman tweeted today that we could see him in the rotation by end of season. Is that realistic, even if Bundy's health holds up and he pitches well, given the paucity of innings he's pitched in the last few years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
It's going to come down to how heavily he's used as a reliever. But if all the indicators are holding up for him into August or so, you could see his appearances extended longer and longer
Derek
10:28
Any update on Gausman?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
I think I saw he's supposed to throw today?
The Ghost of Dayn Perry
10:28
Do you take any special steps to separate work from your home life? A special office area, or you only work from certain hours or in certain places?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
I work almost exclusively in our second bedroom. I don't want to take it anywhere else. The best feeling in the day is when I get to close my laptop, and then, unless I'm expecting something, I can turn my phone notifications off, too
10:30
I used to hate the psychological downside of working from home, but now what I think I hate the most are smartphones
Around-the-clock accessibility is going to kill us
IT'S GOING TO KILL US
mtsw
10:31
Does the fact Aroldis Chapman is a free agent at year's end make his hold on the closer role safer or less safe? Could see it both ways.
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
He's safe. He's Aroldis Chapman.
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