Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/31/17
powered byJotCast
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:05
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friend
Query
9:05
The chat will begin soon!
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
I have good(?) news!
JTT
9:06
Jeff, Brandon Guyer has basically kept his career afloat by learning that he is good at getting hit by baseballs on purpose. He was hit 31 times in only 345PA, basically 9% of his PA. How often would you be willing to get beaned to stay in the big leagues, keeping in mind your 0 years of service time would only earn you league minimum. I realize with no other skills you would need to get hit in essentially every plate appearance to justify a roster spot, but where would you personally draw the line? I would stick it out for 43 days for pension purposes and afterwards pray to god that I got hit hard enough to warrant a long DL stint then call it quits.
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I have a great deal of interest in spending one year making half a million dollars. However I do not have a great deal of interest in going out there and embarrassing myself in front of so many people. And, presumably, I wouldn't get hit in every plate appearance, and so in the other ones I would make automatic outs. That sucks!
Guyer's figured it out for himself. He has real skill and real power, and when he gets drilled, it's usually in the leg. That's not so bad. I love that he exists
TF Fredrik
9:08
Do you think players have aged better or are starting to age better because of how seriously athletes have started paying attention to diet, year round work outs, mental health, less partying & just an overall healthy living mindset? That Sawchik article on Bautista got me thinking about it. I am sure we can or someone has looked into the data about war vs age and if its improving but I don’t think ive seen something like that.
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
It makes all the sense in the world to me that aging curves should drop off more gradually now. Not so much relative to the PED era, since, you know, PEDs, but relative to what's naturally established.
However, while players might be aging better these days, those veterans are still expensive. Far more expensive, every single time, than a comparable player from the farm. So although aging should be more graceful, the trend toward younger employment isn't going to stop until or unless more money gets shifted to the earlier parts of players' careers
merlin
9:10
What do you make of Drew Smyly's "soggy arm"? Do you think this is like a dead arm or something worse, and how much time do you think he will miss?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Shoulder/labrum problems in 2015. This isn't coming out of nowhere. I can't sit here and tell you exactly what the prognosis is, but at this point I'd count on closer to 20 starts than 30
It sucks, too, because the WBC got me pretty excited to watch Smyly in the regular season
TF Fredrik
9:12
For pitching prospects, is there an innings number that once they hit you mentally look at them as this is what they are? Or do you think pitchers skills are fluid enough that you always think someone could possibly have more or just bloom late? Pitchers career trajectories are always a fascinating topic for me.
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
I'm less like that for pitchers than for hitters. I'm kind of a pitcher optimist, but I believe in talent and I believe that small changes can have big effects. I think what I'd want to know more about is a given player's dedication to his craft -- someone more committed and creative would probably be more likely to have it all click at a non-traditional age
Zonk
9:13
I am sad that Muni Kawasaki is heading back to Japan. How awesome was he for baseball? Remember Jeff, a monkey never cramps!
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
A hundred years ago, a number of baseball teams kept what were basically human mascots. Kawasaki was kind of a modern-day human mascot.
9:15
He is, probably, the most likable baseball player of the decade
Steve
9:15
What type of numbers would it take for Machado to win the AL MVP this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
A minimum of like a 140 wRC+, and the Orioles need to make the playoffs
I don't know which is less likely
TF Fredrik
9:17
If some teams really go with a 13 man pitching staff, isn’t this trying to take advantage of 3rd time thru penalty and general effectiveness of fresh relievers we see in post season and try to extract it over the course of a season? Having 13 pitchers seems to be making a choice you value this over flexibility & potential rest for position players by having the short bench.
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
I think the...Marlins...have been thinking about a 13-man pitching staff. Which makes sense for them, because their rotation is bad, and their lineup is a bunch of everyday players, with no platoons. Those position players still will need their rest, and their bench is no good, either, but that's a pitching staff that will require creative use for optimal results
I don't usually recommend a 13-man pitching staff, but the Marlins are exceptional
(not that) James
9:19
Are there any players for whom it wouldn’t make sense to try hitting with more of an uppercut? The easy answer would seem to be fast guys with no power, but I’m thinking players more like Dansby Swanson. He’s projected for maybe 15 HR per year during his peak. I’m wondering if most players like that could theoretically benefit from altering their swing to try and hit for more power. Like, do they all have untapped power? Is someone like Justin Turner a prime example, or is he one of a few genuine outliers in the game who maybe had untapped power and a swing change just helped them reach it?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I think that, generally, the majority of baseball players would be better if they swung with more of an uppercut. Exceptions would be the lightest hitters around, like Billy Hamilton, Jose Iglesias, Billy Burns, etc. Air balls do them no good.
9:20
Now, with major leaguers, you get into an issue of adaptability. These players have been swinging like they've swung forever, and some guys can't change as easily as others. And so when you have, say, Giancarlo Stanton swinging flat and destroying every other pitch, there's no reason to try to change that
9:21
I think Gregory Polanco said he has trouble when he tries to hit the ball in the air. Although, on the other hand, he just dramatically improved his fly-ball rate, so I don't know what to do with that
Peter Griffin
9:21
Amir Garrett or Skaggs in a 12-team? Where are they in your OD pitcher rankings?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
I don't have OD pitcher rankings
I like all pitchers
9:22
I would trust Tyler Skaggs more because he has actually been a good pitcher in the major leagues
Glasnow Half Full
9:23
Am I the Pirates 5th starter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
I don't know if you'll break camp as such, and there are some service-time issues as usual, but I like the 25% spring K-BB%
9:24
You'll see plenty of action in the bigs this year
CaptainPeanutbutter
9:24
The braves are projected to be terrible. Why does the media and some people keep commenting about them being possible contenders? Do people really think they are much better than their projections and why?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
They were a .500 team in the second half and they added a few recognizable veterans. But more importantly, the front office has been selling this Braves team as much improved, and a lot of people who do the coverage don't bother to think any deeper than that
Wright
9:25
Are you concerned about Nola's spring so far? 18 runs ins 19 innings is still alarming even in ST
Load More Messages
Connecting...