Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/31/17
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Sonny
10:45
Pick any player in the league and you can move one of his tool grades up 10 but reduce another by 10. Would this even matter for someone like Trout?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Stanton hit tool up 10, throwing arm down 10. Superstar!
soaktherich
10:45
Re: spying on Mike Hazen, I once sat next to Andie Macdowell on a transatlantic flight and used the same technique to talk to her (wasn't interested in anything more than talk but it was interesting to talk to a bona fide movie star). Started with "So, what do you do for a living?" Had a nice chat. She owns a forest in Montana. It was amazingly awkward when the young stewardess fawned all over her.
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Always go after the famous types by pretending you don't know that they're famous!
Josh R
10:46
Are you particularly surprised at any player that has been sent down for the start of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
Nothing so far has stopped me in my tracks, but I think that's mostly because I've realized in the last few years that opening-day assignments don't really matter. You can miss an opening-day roster and be up within a week and a half
Neel
10:47
How long would you expect smyly to be out?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
I don't know anything about his injury but given the timing, even something fairly minor would require him to build his arm back up
Bert Campaneris
10:48
Loved the Pruitt article. I was aware of his pinpoint command based on my OOTP experience. Anyways, how soon until other teams begin adopting the trend? Tampa did it with Erasmo; Detroit did similar with Smyly, and so on but it's never caught on. There are so many starters that should be developed just for that role, every org has one. What would be your timetable? AND what sort of attained success would push teams to heavily consider it? Thanks for chatting, Jeff.
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
I think it's already underway. The Astros really have something enviable in Devenski/Feliz. The Marlins have Phelps, the Rays had Erasmo last year, the Pirates have Nicasio, and so on. Teams are going to need more innings from relievers and this is a really useful compromise between keeping a guy as a starter or moving him to one-inning bullpen use
Erik
10:49
Any idea why August's current employer is unknown? The team thinks it would be a competitive disadvantage if competing teams went back an read his old articles or something? That's pretty cool if that's the reason, I guess.
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
There is a good reason, but from the sounds of things, you could expect official word fairly shortly
Dan
10:50
How would you view Steven Matz going forward? Is he a top 25 pitcher when healthy?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
That feels too aggressive, given he's been pitching in the NL East
Brandon
10:50
Not even one FanGraphs writer picked the A's as a potential sneaky playoff candidate, and understandably so. But what would have to happen for the A's to compete for a playoff spot with their current roster?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
I'm actually really interested in the A's and I think they'll be a lot better than the community. Their pitching staff is a lot of fun. But I think they're more like an 81-win team than an 88-win team
Give 'em a healthy Gray and Doolittle and they're dangerous
Wright
10:51
Messi doesn't do his taxes, do I have to?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Do your taxes!
Samwise
10:52
Is there any potential 70+ hit tool player with a raw/game power 70+ out there in the minors now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Eric has Moncada at 60/60. Benintendi at 70/55...Meadows at 70/60...that about covers it
E
10:53
What are the odds that Shelby Miller’s new found velocity and k% continue in to the regular season and he puts a 5 WAR season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Remarkably low
But he's going to be one of those guys where you'll want to keep a close eye on his first month
10:54
Ditto Kendall Graveman. There have been reports that he's touched 97-98 this spring
I've been waiting to write an article about him
SpicyBoy
10:54
Why aren't park factors calculated on a cumulative basis rather than year-by-year? barring significant park renovations, I can't see any reason why a park would play differently offensively one year that it would the next. It seems to me that having park factors be cumulative would eliminate noise in the data by increasing the sample size we#re evaluating the park on.
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
FanGraphs park factors are calculated based on several years of information
10:55
Just because you can see park factors for every individual year doesn't mean they're actually different
Now, some other places *do* calculate single-season park factors, but they're wrong
Wes
10:56
Max Fried is 23 years old and still hasn't pitched above A ball. Is that something to worry about or do you believe the Braves will push him aggressively?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Before this past year, Dylan Bundy had hardly pitched against advanced competition. Injuries ruin traditional timelines
10:57
Fried will rise quickly if he's worth it
DTH
10:57
what does a post-Harper Nationals team look like? can they still be perennial contenders with Turner as their star, or does the aging core drag them back to the middle of the pack for a few years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
In 2014, Harper was not very good, and the Nats won 96 games. Last year, Harper was just fine, and the Nats won 95 games. When Harper flipped out and had a season for the ages, the Nats won just 83 games!
This doesn't say anything about the Nationals' future, and they have some issues to watch out for, but they are so much more than just Bryce Harper. They can survive the loss of Bryce Harper
Fred, Man
10:59
Rating out 10 on Manfred's rein so far?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
7 or 8? Don't agree with everything but I appreciate his open-mindedness
Kimball
11:00
Do you think Manfred (or people he listens to) 1) read Brisbee's piece, and 2) see past the humor to the truth of it? And/or, do you think they already knew it, despite all the other crap they talk about/mess with?
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