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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/20/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:29
I don't know, but that's for them, not for you
9:30
You wouldn't even notice if the camera didn't cut to the player when he's making whatever gesture he makes
Ern
9:31
Worried about Edwin Encarnacion's start? Looks like he's chasing more pitches out of the zone.
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
We've seen this one before. Didn't start out well last season either, with elevated strikeouts. He gets the benefit of the doubt from me for another month or so
Davy
9:31
SSS but Meg Rowley seems like the real deal.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
She's great, and she's been great for years. Couldn't have been happier when I found out she was hired
Charlie
9:32
I've never heard your GIF pronunciation rant and I'm interested to hear it.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
I am never engaging in this again in my life
This is my solemn swear
Bob Dobalina
9:33
Is Gsellman too valuable out of the pen, or is it worth giving him a spot start or two to see what he's capable of? The Mets' back-end is a mess and I feel like he's not far off from being better than a few of them.
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
I wouldn't necessarily close the door on his ever being a starter again, but it's easy to see how he could be a guy who's really benefited from the bullpen switch. No need to do anything soon. Let Vargas mix in a few times and see how bullpen Gsellman holds up. I'd be just fine with him throwing 70 innings or whatever of quality relief
Henry Rowengartner
9:36
Nola finished 2017 strong and has had his underlying numbers trend positively.  Is he going to right the ship or are we looking at a different Nola right now?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I don't know why he would be fundamentally different. He's throwing the same stuff and he ought to end up missing more bats
Side note: it's a sign of the times that we're saying "right the ship" about a starter with a 2.22 ERA
9:38
There was an early stretch last year where Nola didn't miss bats like he usually does. He's going to come around, I'm confident
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:39
Why don't we use xwOBA more to evaluate hitters over wRC+? We use input-based stats like FIP for pitchers.
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I think we're seeing xwOBA more and more often, but it's also not perfect, because there are certain types of hitters who are just consistently going to overperform or underperform their Statcast numbers
9:40
For example, last year Dee Gordon had a 92 wRC+, and the tenth-worst xwOBA in the game
9:41
There's a speed and batted-ball-distribution aspect, and xwOBA doesn't tackle that
Bored Employee
9:42
Are you holding out any hope for Amed Rosario to be an above-average offensive player?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Not much. Maybe he's Orlando Arcia
Bork
9:42
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Hello friend
Sorry, that was a delayed one
CamdenWarehouse
9:44
So what did the Reds learn about Price that they didn't know last October?  I never understand early seasoning firings on teams that expected to be bad.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
They didn't expect to be this bad
Of course it's not Price's fault, but in a way it's surprising he lasted as long as he did, because rebuilding teams generally experience a lot of managerial churn. Price wasn't going to be the manager if/when the Reds got good again anyhow
Jake
9:47
What to make of Rich Hill? His O-Swing% and Z-Swing% are trending in worrying directions.
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
He's only made three starts, and just one of those has been particularly bad. It appears he made that start while dealing with some kind of discomfort in his middle finger, which would stand to have a definite effect on his command and ability to spin consistently
9:50
Hill last year through eight starts: 20% O-Swing. Final 17 starts: 32% O-Swing
Give him a longer leash
Eyevee4
9:52
The braves have been beating good teams convincingly, and have prospect reinforcements on the way later this year. Are they ready to compete a year earlier than expected or are they a mirage.
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
I was on board with the Phillies as a dark-horse WC contender, and the Braves and Phillies, overall, aren't too dissimilar
9:53
I'm not sure how much I believe that Foltynewicz and Newcomb will remain so successful, but definitely, if Swanson has bounced back, there's more and more to like here
9:54
A rebuild that, from the beginning, was designed to build around pitching is likely to benefit most strongly from production on the position-player side
Henry Rowengartner
9:55
Who finishes the season with more Cy Young votes: McCullers or Verlander?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Verlander. Voters love innings thrown, and Verlander always racks those up, while McCullers will mix in short starts and probably a DL stint somewhere
jim
9:56
even though the normal service time date has passed, are some teams likely to keep their top prospects down past the super 2 deadline as well
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Some, definitely, although this one is always more tricky because there is no set date on a yearly basis. It's always changing so that makes it harder to predict
Bored Employee
9:57
Domingo German has some pedigree and good performance sprinkled between the injuries. Do you think he has a chance at a rotation spot?
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