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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/20/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Throws four pitches with regularity, and last year between Double- and Triple-A, he maintained very strong peripherals. He deserves a look
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:58
Does Mallex Smith need more reps, or is he just a bad defender?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
DRS actually loves him. UZR thinks he's fine. No questioning the range, but he'll lose points on a regular basis because of his arm
Can't imagine it's a matter of reps at this point
Palardelphia
10:00
Currently flying under the radar - Victor Arano has pitched 10.1 perfect innings going back to September 30th of last season.
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
I was just looking at him briefly this morning. I think he's a fine reliever, all things considered, but his 2018 success has come in super low-leverage roles. That's always at least a yellow flag to me
10:01
This year, the Phillies are going to have a very deep bullpen. They're also going to make plenty of use of the bullpen. So Arano will get plenty of opportunities
Manga
10:03
What's your take on the Astros closer situation? Will Giles settle into the role eventually? Has he lost Hinch's trust indelibly? Will Devenski be the full-time guy at some point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Giles seems to have been dealing with a back issue. I'll buy that as the explanation here. There's more freedom to move guys around in the bullpen since it's got both Devenski and Peacock now, but I imagine if/when Giles is healthy, he'll get the most saves
Henry Rowengartner
10:04
End of season, which pitcher will we look back at and say, "Maybe we should have seen this coming."  Hitter?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Seems plenty reasonable now to suggest that Chris Tillman didn't deserve another guaranteed job
10:06
On the hitting side, I don't know -- there are so many options. But if Aaron Judge is amazing again, that shouldn't be too much of a shock. He's an amazingly talented hitter
Loge Mezzanine
10:07
Is it too early to worry about Domingo Santana's power outage? He's making contact at a similar rate as last year but has just 1 XBH in 81 PA.
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
As I recall he had a lousy spring and that appears to have carried over. He's going to hit the ball hard -- he is a power hitter -- but there's always been something missing there in terms of consistency and fulfilling expectations
CamdenWarehouse
10:09
It looks like Javy Baez's approach at the plate might have matured.  Do you see anything that suggests he could raise his game this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Not really
10:10
He's always been able to hit the ball really hard. Maybe there's something to his early-season increase in zone swings. But if anything, he's swinging *more* than he has. His aggressiveness will continue to be exploited fairly often
Johnny
10:11
How is WAR calculated for multi-position players (eg Jose Ramirez, Ben Zobrist) when the replacement pool varies at different positions?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
We have fielding numbers and playing time at each individual position, so it's not very complicated in reality. Nothing about the offense changes; positional adjustments consider defensive position only
10:12
So if a guy spends half the time at shortstop and half the time at second base, his positional adjustment is just the average of those two
Albie up all night
10:12
It's past start time. Are you celebrating 420 or something?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
I'm late literally every single week
Guilt related to that is essentially why I always chat for twice as long as I'm obligated to
Dan
10:14
Is Manny Machado a good defensive shortstop?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
I think he should be a fine defensive shortstop, but probably not much above average
Calvin
10:15
Now that the Red Sox are projected to match the Astros at 100 wins, do you still view Houston as the best team in baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Yep
Big G
10:16
What’s up with Hoskins’ BB rate? Even higher than last year, but all the projections still show a rate lower than what he did in the minors? What do you think of him going forward?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I think he's a very good hitter. He also doesn't swing very much, and he's dropped his swing rate by another seven percentage points in the early going. I think this'll be cyclical -- pitchers will start trying to exploit his patience, so in response, Hoskins will swing more, lowering his walk and strikeout rates during that stretch
Ultimately, he should fluctuate around a nice and high wRC+
So good!
10:17
Fun fact: as a rookie, in three times the exposure, Hoskins had five hits to the opposite field. This year he has six
10:18
Including four doubles. Last year he had just one extra-base hit the other way
Not Finnigan
10:18
What is your favourite pitch to watch? Ex: Kluber’s breaking ball
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
A perfectly-executed changeup
Or actually, maybe a perfectly executed inside two-seamer from a righty to a lefty
The latter is more dependent on the feed having a center-field camera angle
10:19
The former is beautiful from any angle
Erik
10:19
Will the Marlins have real competition for the #1 pick or do you expect them to pull away soon?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
It'll be a tight race
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