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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/27/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Not particularly accurate for individual players in individual seasons, but accurate enough over large samples
It's based on play-by-play data, without modern-day granular details
The further back you go, obviously, the less reliable the information
Willie Calhoun
9:54
FREE WILLIE!
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Willie Calhoun is slugging .413 in Triple-A
Nicky
9:55
Do you think any outside companies can set some sort of statcast/trackman at every stadium, and make all the raw data available for public (I guess not for free) in the  future?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
What's the incentive? Where's the money? There aren't enough people in the public sphere who would pay much for this
9:56
Plus, the raw data on its own is super hard to interpret, and the existing structure wouldn't welcome a threat
stever20
9:57
how much of a thing is starting for the first time at Coors Field?  I know Darvish struggled some there last weekend.  Thinking Ohtani may start there in a couple of weeks so just was wondering- may be a fun topic for an article coinciding with Ohtani's 1st start there....
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Even worse than ending up in Coors Field for the first time -- Eric Lauer was just asked to make his *major-league debut* in Coors Field
It did not go well
9:58
I'm not sure how easily this could be researched. And honestly, I bet the first time isn't too different from the second time. Between times, you probably forget what it's like to pitch in thin air
Marc
9:59
Each season there are players that overperform and underperform according to woba and xwoba- this season as of the end of April we have star players underperforming (Santana, Lindor) and overperforming (Albies, Gregious).  Is there any statistic out there that shows a correlation between early season and end-of-season stats- that is, whether a player's slump/hot streak "sticks"?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
It's always going to end up a case-by-case basis. Is someone just getting better batted-ball results, or are there also signs of an adjusted approach? Like, with Gregorius, he just looks like a different, more mature hitter
And then there's the matter of pitcher adjustments, or future batter slumps. For last year's first half, Manny Machado dramatically underperformed his xwOBA. Then he just plain got worse
10:01
I don't think any analysis is very clean here. My advice would be to just look at the updated player projections, and then bump or subtract from there based on your own gut feeling
10:02
Before the year, Gregorius was projected for a .316 wOBA. Now that's up to .331, the rest of the way
Guest
10:02
Do you ever wonder what happened
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Every night, the instant I close my eyes
Turgid
10:05
Does statcast actually measure the spin of pitches? Or is spin inferred from movement?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Just had to take a few minutes for Googling
10:07
Almost certain it is direct measurement
As opposed to the old PITCHf/x system, where spin rate was inferred
Marcus Stroman
10:09
What's my deal? Fundamentals look OK but I'm getting lit up. Should I be worried?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Not all that much is different about Stroman in the early going
But his slider seems to be giving him fits
10:11
Last year, batters swung at the slider 52% of the time. This year, that rate is down to a paltry 35%
10:13
Since Stroman is mostly a sinker/slider pitcher, he needs the slider to be more tempting if he's going to get by. Otherwise batters can just look for sinkers and that isn't very hard to do
I figure Stroman will pull himself out of this, but either he needs the slider to improve, or he needs to broaden his repertoire
Vegan Man!
10:13
Think Jesus Aguilar can be a decent fill in for Thames? Seems like he's dropped his k% substantially, albeit in a SSS. Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
I like Aguilar just fine. Before the year, I wasn't sure he'd get a job, which was too bad, because he's good enough. Now the Brewers' misfortune will also get to show off their depth
They also have Ji-Man Choi in the system. I like Ji-Man Choi!
Pine Needles
10:15
Andrelton Simmons has maintained his power “surge” from last year while flipping his walk and strikeout rates, which seems to be supported by his plate discipline numbers. Is a legitimate good hitter now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
I think he is. 110-120 wRC+ territory
Ben Lindbergh has an article up today about Gregorius and Simmons. There are so many good shortstops
Jack
10:15
Why haven’t you written about Daniel Robertson yet?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Because there are several more interesting players and a man can write only so much
Dunt
10:16
Yoan Moncada is going to be scary once he irons things out from the right side
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Yoan Moncada is already scary
He's a 23-year-old with a 152 wRC+
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