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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/27/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:17
It's possible he just won't become a good hitter from both sides. But his lefty swing is already so productive
Ross
10:17
Have you accepted Joey Wendle as your lord and savior?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Weird chat today
Weird Obsession
10:18
Is Miguel Rojas this year's Chris Taylor?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
See what I mean
Miguel Rojas hit a homer against Clayton Kershaw, which is great. Miguel Rojas is also slugging .380, after slugging .375 last season
sayward
10:19
Hey Jeff, we have team and pitcher home runs rates with HR/9 but is there a a way to get the number of runs given up by a pitcher or team from HRs either in total or as a percentage of total runs? Or for that matter driven in by a team or batter?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
This refers to something called the Guillen Number, which pops up every now and again
10:20
Baseball Prospectus tracks it for team hitting https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1819118
10:21
The Giants have scored 55% of their runs on homers. The Rays are at just 27%
10:22
But if you want more than this, you have to take the time to plow through the Baseball Reference Play Index --> Event Finder. You have to isolate home runs, and then see how many runs have scored on those
Takes a while. But, unsurprisingly, league-wide Guillen Numbers have been on the rise
Ben Aflac
10:23
Is Jason Heyward back?  The peripherals generally back up his line so far.
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
I don't think Jason Heyward is *back*, but I do think he's had a very promising start to his season, and it wouldn't surprise me very much at all if he were a, say, 105-110 wRC+ kind of hitter at this point
10:24
Heyward's xwOBA marks:

2015: .319
2016: .303
2017: .321
2018: .389!
Gotta give him more time, but this looks good for now
Morning Phase
10:25
When judging if a player has 5 tools, is a tool considered a 50 on the 20-80 scale? 55, 60?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Generally speaking, I don't think you're looking for a guy who has five average tools. You're looking for someone with five above-average tools, so, yeah, that would be a 55 or 60, at least
Davy
10:26
Why do teams immediately minimize injuries in the press?Every time someone gets hurt, it's, "Well, he might've bruised his hand. He'll be back tomorrow." And then after a few days on the bench they'll admit that it's really a broken wrist. I'm a Nats fan, and I was talking to a Mets fan who had the same complaint. Both teams recently replaced their entire training staffs, so it seems to be the team, not the doctors, who are misleading us. Don't they realize that constantly having to admit that they were either wrong or dishonest makes them look bad?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I have a note written down here to research how Tommy John cases are initially reported. So many times, I feel like the early word is "no structural damage" and "day to day" or whatever
10:27
I don't think anyone has any sinister intentions and I think, a lot of the time, teams will say what's going on. But players don't love to own up to injuries, because those can be perceived as excuses. And if teams kind of gloss over injury significance, then in theory that same injury can't be so easily exploited by a current or future opponent
10:28
It's complicated, but at least we still get more information about injuries in baseball than they do in hockey
Davy
10:28
I refuse to have great days, Jeff. I refuse on general principle.
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
It's not up to you. It is an instruction
A different Matt
10:28
So where are the articles on our current WAR leader?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
The Ringer
The Man With No Name
10:29
Is your boy Wilmer Font gonna right the ship in Oakland?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
If nothing else he'll sure as shit stop giving up a home run every other inning
10:30
I'm glad to see him get what should be a better chance than he got in LA. Might even end up starting at some point, depending on how the A's rotation fares. Kendall Graveman is down in Triple-A now, after all
Font hasn't made it easy to keep supporting him, but there's no sense dumping on a guy after only ten innings
Vegan Man!
10:31
Any thoughts on Trevor Cahill? Underlying numbers look pretty promising... Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
He was really interesting last season too. I think he's a good pitcher until or unless his shoulder starts barking
But, his shoulder has this nasty tendency to bark
Shawn
10:31
Mac Williamson=the next JD Martinez with his swing transformation?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Justin Turner is the more obvious comparison, given the swing coach
Too early to say that Williamson *is* good. Not too early to say that Williamson *looks* good. All the early signs are outstanding
Limmy
10:33
You buying Ring's Baez argument?  Or is this just SSS peak performance by a boom or bust guy that wouldn't move the needle if it was happening in mid-June.
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
It's very, very hard for me to believe in a guy with that blend of whiffs and aggressiveness
Play Ball
10:33
Sean Newcomb showed both his potential and the problems, with two of the four runs he allowed getting on to base with 4 pitch walks. If he can get himself to average (or slightly below average) command, how good of a pitcher can he be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
That would be a No. 2 starter. He is not, of course, a No. 2 starter right now
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