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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/27/18
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Stuafoo
10:34
Would you be in favor of the Ms shipping out guys like Cruz and Diaz if they’re hovering around .500 at the break? Seems like their path to the playoffs is so narrow that they should jump on moving their best assets if given the chance to give a boost to the farm.
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
You saw how little J.D. Martinez got around the deadline last year. Nelson Cruz is a free agent in November and even if he were made available, he wouldn't bring back that much
With Diaz, there's more of an argument, but that depends on how close the team is to the second wild card. Might be better to instead think about trading him in December, if the second half brings some chance of making the postseason
Turgid
10:37
Can Tim Anderson sustain his improved plate discipline?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Probably not, but I hope so
And for him, even a modest improvement would be useful
zach
10:38
think the astros could feasibly make their "5th starter" McCullers twice through the order and Peacock twice through the order? with lenience on either side depending on how the outing is going, of course
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
The option is there, but I don't think the Astros would want to limit Peacock's versatility like that
10:39
He's too good to make unavailable for that many days
Vegan Man!
10:39
Which metric do you prefer for predicting future performance - xfip or SIERA? Thank you!
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
I don't think I have ever once used SIERA
manny
10:40
are you concerned about Ohtani's recent struggles?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
"Concerned" is too strong a word. I'll forgive him for the blister start. And then he went up against the Astros, who are outstanding. His slider was better but his splitter was worse. He hasn't yet had a start where he had a good feel for all three of his pitches
Healthy Ohtani *will* be a good starting pitcher
10:42
And on the batting side, he just hasn't had a chance to do much lately
3 for his last 8, I guess
Fowl Balls
10:43
Still think Ketel Marte breaks out this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
His contact rate has surged...too much. He's making too much contact out of the zone, and it's costing him production
Not the start I was looking for, but the skills are still there
Fred Pants
10:44
Which rookie starting pitcher excites you the most for 2018?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
I assume you don't want me to say Ohtani
Because the obvious answer would be Ohtani
The answer I want to give you is Ohtani
10:45
But now you're forcing me to say Tyler Mahle
I'm saying Tyler Mahle, but what I want to say is Shohei Ohtani
Turgid
10:45
Is there any indication yet if the humidor is having an effect in Arizona?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Let me find out!
10:48
Yes!
Last season, Diamondbacks home games had average exit velocities about 1.5mph higher than Diamondbacks road games
10:49
This season -- very early going -- Diamondbacks home games have average exit velocities about 1.3mph *lower* than Diamondbacks road games
That's more or less exactly what we'd be looking for
10:50
Diamondbacks hitters have twice as many homers on the road
Early samples aren't conclusive, but they are suggestive
Red Sox fan
10:51
Is it possible to get information on individual defensive plays for fielders? Trying to figure out how Jackie Bradley Jr. has a -2.3 defensive WAR for the year, as I haven't watched anything out of the norm in regards to his range.
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
It's not easy at all. You'd probably have to send some emails to people you've never emailed. For whatever it's worth, Statcast doesn't think Bradley has been bad. And I wouldn't much care about one month of UZR or DRS
barves
10:52
If you have a kid who's a promising ball player, would you put any limits in place in their development?  No curve balls till X age?  No year round ball? No long toss in the off season? Ect.
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
I am not a parent or a coach, so I don't have many strong opinions here, but I definitely wouldn't want to make a kid play baseball all year round
I don't care if it would give him more reps or exposure. Give the kid a damn break
Duffy
10:53
What are reasonable expectations for Didi going forward? Would you say his true talent level has changed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
I think he's definitely better. Starting to wonder now if he's basically become a left-handed Brian Dozier
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