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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/11/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Which, personally, I'd find delightful
Belted
10:19
Mike Petriello recently suggested a benchmark counting stat of 5k 'overall bases' rather than 3k hits, for considering all-time great hitters.
https://www.mlb.com/news/the-new-3000-hits-is-5000-overall-bases/c-275...
What are your thoughts on this? Do you have any other suggestions for more valid counting stats to measure career greatness?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
I'm going to be honest with you: I really don't care. Maybe it's because I won't have a Hall of Fame vote for another seven years or something, but I don't care about big round career counting-stat thresholds
10:20
I like rate stats. Rate stats tell you so much more. I don't need cutoffs to know whether or not a player was good
Dan
10:22
Do you think Jose Berrios will get together this season?  4 bad outings in a row and the angels really teed off on him
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
I'll forgive him for the start against the Yankees. That wasn't terrible, considering the Yankees are amazing
10:23
But the last three times out, Berrios has thrown 14.1 innings, with six walks and four strikeouts
Most importantly, his breaking ball has generated just three whiffs over those three starts combined
10:24
The velocity is there, and the movement is there
10:25
I think it's just been an execution problem. He'll straighten it out, but without the curveball working, Berrios just has his fastballs. I don't think the changeup is much
10:26
Still quite a distance to go before Jose Berrios is the next Jose Fernandez
Yu
10:27
Is it possible Fangraphs ever starts showing some of the statcast batted ball data (launch angle, etc.) on a player's page?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Yeah, probably. I believe it's somewhere in the database
Phaithful
10:27
Matt Adams, swinging at less pitches, better/harder contact in the zone, pulling more balls. As long as he keeps it up, the production continues right? The BABIP isnt out of control
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Adams has always been able to make very good contact. The issue is that he just swung too much -- his career chase rate is almost 40%. This year it's 33%. Down ten points from last season. Don't know if he can maintain this discipline, but if he can, he's a dangerous hitter
sveum
10:29
What are Steven Duggar's chances of getting to SF in the near future?  What would need to happen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Duggar needs to play better, first of all. Slugging .278 in May
10:30
But it's not like Blanco/Hernandez/Jackson present much of a collective obstacle. The Giants have already signaled that they're big Duggar believers. He'll get his chance after he catches fire in Triple-A
CamdenWarehouse
10:30
Quite a winning streak the Orioles are on.  They're going to show all of the doubters now!
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Chris Tillman just super bums me out
2-D
10:32
The Phillies currently have zero left handed pitchers on their active roster. How much of a disadvantage are they putting themselves in?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Well, they've allowed a .324 wOBA to lefties, and a .258 wOBA to righties
That's No. 1 in baseball against righties, and No. 19 in baseball against lefties
10:33
It's a disadvantage in some cases. It's not crippling, especially when Adam Morgan is back, but if the Phillies hang around, they'll look for a lefty in July
Ox
10:33
Should the Twins be more concerned about Berrios or excited about Romero?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Excited about Romero
Dude throws a changeup at 91 miles per hour
GraphsFan
10:34
Jeff, I really enjoy your sign off at the end of Friday baseball chat. Do you type it out longform or do you have it at the ready to be copy-pasted when you're all wrapped up?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
It's not long enough to bother saving, copying, and pasting
But I've thought about it!
Panik Button
10:34
Has Jeremy Jeffress really gotten this good? Or is there a fair bit of luck in there?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Well, the .184 BABIP tells you something
10:35
But it does seem like the American League just didn't agree with him
10:36
Worth noting that last year, when Jeffress returned to the Brewers, he started heavily featuring a changeup he used to use sparingly. That's carried over. So he has a new weapon that's helped him out
Parts + Gleyber
10:36
Tillman's last two starts: 2 1/3, 12 ER. Who would you start in that slot next time it comes up?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Almost literally anyone else
For the 2018 Orioles, honestly, does it even matter?
If they had good solutions, they wouldn't have signed Tillman in the first place
scott kingery's twin brother
10:38
Scott Kingery: do you think he gets sent down at some point or is his d/flexibilty enough to keep him up, even if he is hitting like this.  THe projections on him are no bueno
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
According to the Statcast stuff, Kingery is pretty significantly underperforming where he "should" be. As long as he maintains decent expected statistics, I assume he'll stick around
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