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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/18/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I love it
Although, on the one hand, this doesn't teach them the right lesson about not investing more in the major-league product
10:19
Those grievances remain very much legitimate. But when the front office said it wasn't rebuilding -- they did mean that, sincerely
So it's still not good that the Pirates don't spend a lot, but, *given* that the Pirates don't spend a lot, this reflects well on the decision-makers
joe
10:20
JD Davis hits for cycle yet Houston calls up Kemp.  Can he be an everyday player for the Astros or more a trade chip
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Nowhere for him to be an everyday player, but he could probably play pretty often until Kyle Tucker arrives
They haven't otherwise figured out a left-field solution
GraphsFan
10:22
Jeff, I noticed some weird patterns in overall Batted Ball data... Have the Medium% and Hard% contact thresholds changed? It seems like Soft% is staying relatively constant, but Medium% is traded for Hard% in 2018... It's even more pronounced for C and DHs, specifically. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0...
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
A couple conflicting things, here
Whenever you have a metric that's in any way subjective, by way of binning, you can be vulnerable to these year-to-year shifts
10:23
It's not like soft, medium, and hard are being recorded via scientific instrumentation alone
Because of that, it's always good to look at a player in context, instead of just looking at hard-hit rate alone
But then, at least according to Baseball Savant, this year average exit velocity is up 1.6 miles per hour!
10:24
The rate of barrels or solid contact is up 1.9 percentage points
10:25
Meanwhile, the rate of poor contact is down 1.1 percentage points
It really could be that more decent hits are turning into quality hits. It requires further examination
v2micca
10:26
Toronto is treading water at .500 right now, but in the Brutal AL East, their path to the post-season is unlikely.  When do you think they become serious about moving Donaldson?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
If and when they're worse than they are right now
10:27
You can assume they're worse than the Yankees and Red Sox, but that still leaves one wild-card slot open. Who out there is significantly better than the Jays? The Angels? The Angels have their own issues, and for now they're only three games ahead
Jays won't be too worried about the Twins, Mariners, A's, or the rest of them
Donaldson only gets traded if the Jays fall apart. Otherwise, Machado will demand the most attention, and the Jays will try to *improve* when they call up Vlad Jr.
PTBNL
10:29
Can't imagine whoever trades for machado keeps him at short, his defense has been almost as bad as his hair cut.
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Indeed, among qualified shortstops, Machado is second-worst in DRS and worst in UZR
In 2016, though, Machado was a perfectly fine shortstop
10:30
Let's just say trading teams will have options
Like, if Machado went to the Braves, he'd obviously be the third baseman. But if Machado went to the Cubs, he'd obviously be the shortstop
Chapultepec Audiorama
10:31
Due to April weather, the Brewers have played 3 more games than STL and PHI, 4 more than CHC and 5 more than NYM. Is there a measurable benefit to getting days off when playoff competitors are playing doubleheaders and on off days in the middle of summer?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
Nothing easily measurable at all, but you can assume it's a good thing
10:32
It's like with the west-coast teams that have to fly so many extra miles. Especially the Mariners. Virtually impossible to measure the impact, but all that travel can't be more good than bad
Vegan Man!
10:33
Is Marwin Gonzalez this bad? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
No, he's better than this, but he was also one of 2017's biggest overachievers, so he was due to come back down to earth. I think he's an average hitter, more or less. Makes him fairly valuable because of his versatility
zurzles
10:34
Teo's xwOBA just isn't going down. Does this say more about Teo or xwOBA?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
He hits the ball super hard a lot
That's good!
10:35
231 plate appearances since arriving with the Jays. 133 wRC+. Slugging .577
This is him. Another corner outfielder the Astros probably wish they hadn't lost
Not that the Astros have anything to complain about
BJOGC
10:36
Given how little teams are valuing "average" players, what should a team in a deep rebuild do with their young, cost controlled but low upside players? A guy like Jeimer Candelario won't be good by the time the tigers are good again but he is young and good now but teams don't seem interested in trading for these types of players unless they have superstar upside. it seems like a bit of a waste
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
It's not a waste, because it benefits the Tigers to have decent players today
We're a quarter of the way through the season and the Tigers, who were supposed to be a disaster, are 1.5 games out of first place
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