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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/18/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Of course they're likely to drop away from the Indians any week now. But, there's that glimmer! It's so much easier on a fan to lose 85 games instead of 105
And I haven't even touched on the fact that we really don't understand "upside" at all
10:38
How good could Jeimer Candelario become? In theory he could become extremely good. Even right now, this year, he has a wRC+ of 131!
So if you're the Tigers, you just keep a player like this and find out what happens
Vegan Man!
10:39
Jose Pirela is hitting everything on the ground this year. Think he'll reach 10HR again, or are we seeing a new approach? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
I don't think this is intentional. I think he's slumping
10:40
He's got five infield flies and zero home runs
He's not doing much to keep Luis Urias away
TJ
10:40
Did none of Eric Hosmer's prestige value rub off on Brian Mitchell and Chase Headley?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Boy did that move go sour in a hurry
I liked it fine at the time, but, boy howdy
Mark
10:41
When I ask questions about Tatis Jr's strikeout rate the answer always seems to be "he's 19 in double A give him a break", but at what point is it ok to ask whether there is really an issue there?  I get it he is super young for the level, but his strikeouts, it seems, will only increase from here, and were high last year too.
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Two things are true here, I think. One, it's totally valid to point out his age, because he *does* have time to improve, and he *is* extremely young for his context. No one figures that Tatis Jr. is a finished product
But two, Tatis Jr. is also one of the most hyped prospects in the world, and the people who do that hyping don't want to entertain anything that suggests the player won't become a superstar. That's not how the prospect-hype world works
10:44
And so no one was openly too concerned about Yoan Moncada's strikeouts, and now he's in the majors and he's striking out a third of the time he comes up
10:45
This is what makes Guerrero Jr. so sensational. More walks than strikeouts. More doubles than walks. Guerrero, incidentally, is also young in Double-A
Zonk
10:46
Jeff, please explain one more time how Bartolo Colon can keep getting outs throwing nothing but high-80s fastballs.  Oh, and he's 45
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
The main purpose of pitching is to confuse the hitter. How we usually interpret that is by suggesting a pitcher can be more effective if he has more pitches. Wow, this guy has two fastballs, a slider, a curveball, AND a changeup! Who could guess what's coming!
10:48
Colon just adds and subtracts with his fastball, for the most part. He throws it where he wants. And the difference between a good hit and a bad one -- or a missed one -- is a matter of a few millimeters
10:49
Colon confuses his opponents because they can't tell exactly where his fastballs are going to end up. It's beautifully simple, and a valuable lesson for any pitcher who's struggling to, say, figure out a changeup in Double-A
Bork
10:49
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Hello friend
Kristen
10:50
What would be a fair asking price for Hamels at the deadline?  Not going to fetch another team's top SP prospect like DET got from TOR for a half-season of David Price.  I'm thinking along the lines of Ross Stripling + an A-level SP prospect.
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
So, a team would be picking up about half of $22.5 million, and then for next year there's a $20-million club option with a $6-million buyout. That means Hamels just has to be more valuable than a $14-million pitcher
10:51
Since Hamels has limited no-trade protection, he might demand that his 2019 option be immediately picked up in order for him to waive it
10:52
You're right that this wouldn't be a blockbuster, but I could see Hamels getting one young pitcher who's close to major-league ready, and a low-level flier with big upside
TJ
10:52
If Kershaw is this iffy all year does he not opt out?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Entirely going to depend on his health. If he's healthy, he'll opt out. If it's obvious that he's going into the offseason with some kind of medical red flag, then, not so much
Rusty Staubach
10:54
How many of the Astros' AAA guys would have a place on an MLB roster right now? Seems like a lot of good talent is stuck there right now.
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Davis, Kemp, Tucker, White, Hoyt -- these are big-leaguers
10:55
I guess Kemp just came up
Vegan Man!
10:55
Thoughts on Joe Musgrove? Solid SP option, or is he better suited for a high leverage relief role? Thank you!
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
I think he could be a fine starter. I also don't love that he's been bothered by all these shoulder issues
10:56
But I don't doubt his ability to get through a lineup two or three times
TJ
10:56
How good does Newcomb need to be for Braves to win the Andrelton trade
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Better than he is
Maddoning
10:57
Javy Baez hits the ball hard.  Javy Baez hasn't taken a walk since April 12th.  Why does anyone even throw him strikes?  Seriously, the worst thing that can happen is a walk, and you can get hurt worse throwing it in the zone
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Since the last time Baez drew a walk, he has a .275 OBP. His wRC+ in May is 81
10:59
Over the past month, he has baseball's third-lowest rate of fastballs seen, and he has baseball's second-highest chase rate
11:00
Pitchers could probably get away with throwing Baez even fewer strikes than they already do. But for the moment it's not as if Baez is winning. He's cooled off dramatically, because he's over-aggressive
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