Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/27/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I don't think you ever assume complete and total health.
But Urias would be an option there
Zonk
10:28
Jeff, why is the bat of Justin Upton striking baseballs with much reduced frequency when compared to last year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Weirdly, his contact rate is actually about the same
It's hung between 69% - 73% for like four or five years
10:30
But I see a pretty substantial increase in his rate of inside fastballs seen. Kind of like a right-handed Jason Heyward in that way. Going to assume it's a simple timing issue. Upton needs to get quicker to the ball, and I think based on his track record you have to figure he'll get there soon
Sam
10:31
Astros with 24 of their next 31 against teams under .500. You think they can make a run to get back in it?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I don't not think that. They're still good, to me. Just with more questions than they had two months ago
John
10:32
Who are the three players most likely to hit .300 for each of the next 10 years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Altuve, Trout, Polanco?
Guys like Machado and Betts also get consideration
Harper might put too many balls too high in the air
Joey bats got rocked!
10:34
How early is too early to crack your first beer today to start the 3-day weekend?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Depends entirely on work context but last weekend I had a beer at 10:30 in the morning and it was fantastic
Scott Servais
10:34
What is the aspect of the Mariners which should worry me the most, or should I just go outside and enjoy the nice weather?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Bullpen
For most teams it's usually the bullpen
10:35
Aside from that, Felix's health? That's been the case for like a decade now
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
10:35
Barring injuries, is the Mariners' success sustainable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
The 99-win pace isn't, but an 89-win pace would be
Andrew
10:35
Your Andrew Miller fun fact reminded me of another fun fact: he broke his wrist just days before the season started. Sure it was his non-throwing hand, but he's still raised his level of performance (which was already amazing) with a broken bone! I can barely function at my own job with a common cold...
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Remember when people worried he might not be able to play??
10:36
He could play! And he's better than ever!
Only a matter of time before high-school parents take their kids in to the doctor to see if they can get a pre-emptive broken non-throwing wrist
Scootsmahgoots
10:36
Continue spinning the Mike Moustakas news.
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
My centrifuge broke
Q-Ball
10:36
Carlos Correa has been......kinda OK. Not great. Is this what he is? What is your take?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
I think most players who bust onto the scene like he did have a rough secondary transition. As a comp, Lindor's power has evaporated. But this is what it looks like when the league has the edge. Correa has yet to adjust back to how he's being pitched, and still he's a good shortstop
FreeBee
10:38
What are the characteristics of hitters that do well against ace pitchers like Kershaw and Arrieta? Are there any examples of hitters that may not be elite over the course of the season, but do significantly better then average players when matched up with top tier pitchers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Sorry about that hiccup, just had my connection drop
10:41
The only thing I could imagine is contact. It would be a slight advantage, relatively speaking, but it's the best I've got. If you can put the ball in play, then those pitchers are less able to get ahead and reach two strikes
Alternatively, if you want to be successful against Clayton Kershaw, you could consider being Madison Bumgarner
j3rown
10:42
Why do the Dodgers want Urias' first start to be on the road, at Citi Field, on the day the Mets celebrate the 30th anniversary of their 1986 World Series champion team. Thoughts? I figured they'd want his first start to be at home with a friendly crowd behind him.
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Maybe it would actually be more pressure to debut at home. Felix debuted on the road
And maybe it's just because this is the slot that opened up when Alex Wood needed a break
Paul
10:43
With the potential of Bautista and Encarnacion leaving and Tulowitzski and Martin continuing to be terrible, could you see a scenario where Toronto are a really bad team next year. As a pessimistic Jays fan, I could do with some reassuring!
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I mean, Tulo can't be this bad, and Martin can't be this bad. Does that do it for you?
It does seem to be a shorter-term window
John
10:44
Do you think baseballs best player 10 years from now is currently a pro or is it someone who hasn't been drafted yet?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
10 years is such a long time. 10 years ago, the best position players by WAR were Pujols, Sizemore, Beltran, Utley, and Cabrera
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