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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/4/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Far lower than a few weeks ago
Put me in coach
9:53
The Braves offense has 2.4 more WAR than the second most team in baseball. Please put into context.
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
You already did
9:54
Now, the Braves are also No. 1 in BABIP, so, you know, of course they're *somewhat* overachieving. Weird to see them 26th in hard-hit rate
9:55
By expected wOBA, the Braves rank 15th
That's actually big! I didn't expect to find them so low
9:56
The Braves have baseball's greatest difference between wOBA and expected wOBA. the Rays are next, and they also have a high BABIP
Dylan
9:56
Jason Vargas........woof
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Wilmer Font territory!
Michael Conforto
9:58
What do you make of Conforto's slow start? Is he still hurt? Not as good as we thought based on last year? Or just having a lot of bad luck?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
I don't think this needs to be overthought. Conforto went through a major procedure. He's probably still getting used to how his shoulder feels. He hasn't fully recovered last year's peak power, and from the looks of things his timing is probably off, which is not uncommon for someone fresh out of the rehab path
10:00
Likely to be a year of fits and starts, but Conforto is too talented to stay down for long
Rock Kickass
10:01
Any idea what the next big adjustment will be for pitchers and hitters?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
It might not be *next*, but since everything is cyclical, you're going to see more guys trying to hit for lower launch angles. Players who find they can get exposed against pitches up will adjust to try to hit those pitches, re-opening the lower half, etc
Sonny
10:02
If the first 6 weeks are illustrative of the whole season I'm very excited to watch the Red Sox and Yankees win 85% of their games for a stretch then cool off to 50% and watch the other shoot by over and over
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
I feel so bad for the other teams in that division
10:03
Like, it's no wonder why the Rays started off so poorly
cuee
10:03
Is having a 200 wRC+ and a 0 wRC+ hitter in your lineup the same as having two 100 wRC+ hitters, assuming equivalent playing time? If not what level hitters would it be comparable to?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I think it would put you at a slight disadvantage, because the great hitter could be worked around, and the terrible hitter could be exploited in high-leverage situations
But in the long run it would be less damaging than you might think
Jake
10:04
I’m always a bit confused whenever a position player needs Tommy John. How does that happen? These guys aren’t throwing breaking balls. Can you really blow out your elbow just by throwing the ball from shortstop to first base?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I think we know the answer to that
10:06
Some infielders and outfielders put a lot of gas on their throws. They don't always get to use consistent mechanics, situation to situation, and of course they build up reps over time, even if not at the same pace as pitchers
10:07
Wear and tear doesn't develop at the same rate, but a ligament will bust if it's pushed past its max. It can happen to anyone
cuee
10:09
What are your thoughts on Scott Kingery?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Good player. Going to improve. I think I'd like to see him be more aggressive earlier in counts
10:10
He has a very low swing rate with zero strikes. That's not terrible by itself, because so does, say, Mike Trout, but I'm worried Kingery might be too passive for his own good
He'll figure it out. He's very talented
Bork
10:11
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Hello friend
Vegan Man!
10:12
Solarte is off to a great start, but his exit velo and avg FB distance don't jive with his current power numbers. Is he a 30 HR guy now, or is some power regression coming? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I'll say this for Solarte: easily his two highest exit velocities on record came this April
He might very well have gotten stronger. He's not *this* good a hitter but I can buy that he's improved
10:14
He also just plain looks bigger. I don't know if that means anything
Vegan Man!
10:16
Brett Gardner is really struggling with the bat, should the Yankees be concerned, or still too early? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
I don't think he's too far off. I know the strikeouts are up, but his contact rate is actually somewhat *improved*
He's probably due for one of those weeks where he hits like four home runs
Pie Eaton Contest
10:17
Vlad Jr, MiLB Level and wRC+
Rookie ball, 122
Low A, 151
High A, 179
AA, 199
Seems only reasonable that he'll be around a 220 wRC+ at AAA and a 240 wRC+ upon arrival to the majors, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
We call that pulling an Acuna
Ben
10:19
Last year we wondered if Albies possibly had 15hr power. Now it's like....damn....is he gonna hit 30+??
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