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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/4/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:19
In this day and age, you probably shouldn't sleep on the power potential for anyone who's demonstrated pretty solid bat control
10:20
As a 20-year-old in the major leagues, Albies made an above-average rate of contact. Should've known there could be more power in there
Matt
10:21
What's the deal with Josh Bell? Not to split the all-too-young-season into smaller bits, but started HOT and is now quite cold over the last 2-3 weeks. Not even getting on base.
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
It's not just him. The Pirates overall got off to a better start and have since cooled down
10:22
A big part of that is just a consequence of recently facing better pitching
Someone like Bell isn't good enough to avoid this cycle of streaks and slumps. He'll probably forever fluctuate around a wRC+ of like 110
Colin
10:22
Has your perception of Ketel Marte changed since the start of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Take that article I wrote about Marte and replace every usage of his name with Nick Ahmed
There. I'm a genius!
10:24
Marte has a very weird profile right now. Hitting far more grounders, but also hitting for far more contact. His contact rate is 92%! He's doing what 2017 Jonathan Lucroy did (which was bad)
10:25
I can't imagine Marte keeps this up much longer. It's not working
Southern Bleacher Bum
10:26
What is wrong with Carlos Carrasco and will he turn it around this season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I don't think anything is wrong
Sometimes a guy just has a bad game or two
Doctor Parrot
10:26
Re: the Paxton article. Can some changes really be that simple?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Some. Not many
10:28
Pitchers will often tell you that throwing good high fastballs isn't as simple as just aiming the fastballs higher. No reason not to believe them. But Paxton makes pitching look so...easy, so smooth. His adjustment to a lower arm slot was simple, and that made so much of the difference a few years back
Vegan Man!
10:29
Luis Castillo looked better the other day (kept the walks down), optimistic about him going forward? Thank you!
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Yeah, he'll get there. I think he's just had a few minor mechanical kinks
Turgid
10:31
What is going on with Goldschmidt? He's striking out far worse than ever in his career. Can't hit righties at all. Contact is slightly down. First pitch strike percentage is way up. The humidor is having some weird effects
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Last year, Goldschmidt struck out looking 28 times. This year, he's already up to 15
10:33
As you mentioned, his contact rate isn't down by very much. And his overall batting line remains quite comfortably better than average. Guessing this is just going to look like a minor strikeout slump that evens out in time
Sean
10:34
Is there  a formula for xBABIP using not only batted-ball profile but speed/sprint score as an input?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Not a public one to my knowledge
At least not using Statcast data
But it probably wouldn't be too hard to put a decent one together
Vegan Man!
10:36
Stroman reintroduced his cutter the other day and had his best outing of the year. Sign of better days to come? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
It's a good step, especially since his slider hadn't really been working that well for him in the early going. One of the hardest things to do when you have a broad repertoire is to know what to use when. Stroman's too good not to eventually settle on the right mix
Assuming Stroman isn't in some way injured, he's too good to be bad, if that makes any sense
Southern Bleacher Bum
10:38
Which player is the better long term asset for the Rays? Daniel Robertson or Jose Alvarado?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
You should pretty much always take the position player over the relief pitcher
Kawasaki Home Run
10:38
With Munenori Kawasaki retiring a couple of months ago, and Ichiro pseudo-retiring this week, what does this mean for us and humanity
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
We fade and we die
10:39
And if we accomplish enough before we retreat from public view, someone will honor us with a 25-second viral video
Concerned
10:41
What's up with Matt Carpenter? He supposedly fixed his swing to be less power oriented because he didn't want to hit .240 again, but here we are in May and he's hitting below .200 with a ton of whiffs. What's the deal?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Lately he's made a lot more quality contact and the results just haven't reflected his performance. He's still putting almost everything in the air, which, welp. But I think we have Matt Carpenter again, even if he's just the guy with the .240 average
Zip-a-dee-doo-da
10:43
Good afternoon Jeff!  Please rank breakouts from most to least sustainable: Haniger, Teoscar, and Soler.
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Ehhhhhhh Haniger, Hernandez, Soler
But I think they're all above-average hitters
Brian
10:43
I'm bummed that the Ichiro era is over.
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