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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/1/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Pele's hair hired a good PR firm
Bort
9:56
I was SO excited for Alex Reyes's return. Now I am despondent. Nothing matters and everything is terrible.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I don't want to sit here and exaggerate before a broad public audience but there is an argument to be made that it should be illegal to pitch
Whenever a pitcher you like is on the mound, appreciate it. Appreciate the shit out of it. Because you never know if it'll ever happen again
Caps in 567
9:58
How much of a priority should starting pitching be for the Brewers at the deadline? Does it make sense to pay through the nose for an “ace” or would they be better off sticking with their crop of back-end starters and adding even more bullpen help?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
I'll point to Jimmy Nelson again, but even besides him, I bet the Brewers poke around for someone kind of in the Happ tier. With that bullpen, they probably don't need anyone to pitch a third time through the order
Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs
9:59
In a world where Acuna comes back from the 10 day DL healthy, and Vlad Jr is called up at the same time, who do you take ROS?  Long term?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Guerrero as a hitter, Acuna as a player
It's almost impossible for a 19-year-old to be a better hitter than Guerrero is, but he has other limitations that Acuna probably doesn't
Bernie
10:01
Jesus Aguilar gets 600 at bats. What do his final numbers look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Good news. He already has 534 career plate appearances! And he has a 112 wRC+
10:02
I think on present talent he's better than that, but I don't buy him as an MVP candidate or anything
It's like he's the Brewers' answer to Jose Martinez
Sirras
10:04
David Wright threw a baseball! He played catch! Am I wrong to be exuberant even knowing he is unlikely to make it into a professional (even minor league) game?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
No
All anyone's ever looking for is the perpetuation of hope
10:05
As long as there exists any inkling of a chance, the flame burns sufficiently bright
Reality can't hurt you until it's official
Al
10:05
What's your outlook on Musgrove?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
I like him! I don't like shoulder problems for pitchers. I especially don't like when they pop up more than once. So he's going to make me nervous for a while
Kristen
10:07
What's up with P. Goldschmidt?  O-swing% way up from last season, Z-contact% and hard-hit rate down, K% at a career-high - indicative of decline in bat speed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
It was easy to assume his April K% wasn't too big a deal because he also had a 145 wRC+
But in May, that K% stayed elevated, and his wRC+ dropped all the way to 48
10:09
I have it written down here to take a closer look at some point soon. I don't know exactly what the issue is. But it's not good when a player experiences two months of elevated strikeouts, and in May, Goldschmidt got himself stuck in chase mode
One idea: it's a timing problem, and he's cheating on fastballs, leaving him increasingly vulnerable to softer stuff
Consider that unconfirmed
Rhys Lightening
10:12
Hoskins' freak injury was weird. He hit a double with a broken jaw! Do you think the version of Rhys we're seeing this year is the real one, or is his true talent level somewhere between this year and last?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
That's nothing -- on April 24, Mac Williamson apparently sustained a concussion while attempting a catch in the fifth inning. In the sixth inning, he homered! Then he was sidelined for a month
10:14
I think this is close to the "real" Hoskins, but over a greater period of time, he'll strike out less, and he'll hit for a little more power
So instead of a 116 wRC+, I'd look for something more like 125-130
Brad
10:16
Given the randomness of injuries, lack of consensus on pitcher mechanics, how much should we take into account durability issues when recognizing which pitcher is best? How long of a period does a pitcher require to be considred the outright best? Kershaw has his durability issues. Since 2017, he's been more like the second best pitcher during his 2014-2016 reign of sheer dominance. Is that enough to conclude he's no longer the defacto number 1?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Durability is important. Now, if you're going to go down this road, you need to establish which question you're asking -- is it about the most valuable pitcher, or the pitcher who you'd most want to take the ball in a one-game playoff, given 100% health?
10:17
If Kershaw were obviously 100%, I think you still take him. But the reality these days is simply that you can't count on that as often as you used to
10:18
It's kind of like Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera, when he's feeling good, remains an elite-level hitter. But he's increasingly nagged by these injuries that take a toll on his performance, even when he's still able to play
10:19
Can't easily separate a player from his own physical limitations
carrotjuice
10:19
Is Devin Mesoraco back, or is this just a fluke?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
It's not a fluke that he's hitting for power. But durability is the major concern. Mesoraco can be good for weeks at a time. Hard to count on him to be good for months at a time
Grant
10:21
On your Dbacks article, I noticed the Angels were fifth in May for wRC+, but Trout is the only player who hit significantly well. Is he that good that he can prop up the team's batting line?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
I don't think I understand
Yeah, Trout was the only guy with a wRC+ over 150 (or 200), but Simmons, Maldonado, Upton, and Ohtani were all over 120
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