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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/1/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Maybe the real point is how much damage can be done by someone like Kole Calhoun spending an entire month with a wRC+ of -8
Patrick
10:24
Thumbs up or down on the mariners trade for Denard Span and Alex Colome?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I think the trade is fine from the Mariners' end, but it's also their own fault they didn't have sufficient minor-league depth to just address those vacancies internally
Dom
10:26
What a would a reasonable trade package for Machado to the Braves look like? Riley, Allard and a dart throw prospect?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
If I'm the Braves, I'm trying like hell not to include Riley, since I'd want him taking over the position after Machado leaves
10:27
The Orioles don't have to worry about that -- they need help everywhere. Given that Machado is both very good but also very short-term, this feels like a trade where the Braves could get away with dealing exclusively young pitchers
Bill
10:28
Will Jesus Aguilar receive the bulk of the playing time when Thames returns and is his pace sustainable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
No, no. As good as Aguilar has been, Thames also will return to a 153 wRC+
Makes for a pretty easy platoon to operate
got ker back
10:29
as a dodger fan, i'm just skeptical that this front office re-signs kershaw.  not sure i have a question, just interested in your take.
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
I think it helps a great deal that the Dodgers can afford to spend so much damn money. So in a circumstances as extraordinary as this one, they could pay a little extra for legacy and not worry about it
10:31
That being said, Kershaw appears like he might be headed back to the DL. Is this really the season you have before you opt out of two years and $65 million?
So the Dodgers might be spared that decision anyway
10:34
One other thing to be aware of is a predatory team in the market willing to blow the Dodgers out of the water. Say Kershaw does opt out. I've heard about a surprising team that's considered offering upward of $50 million a year
Smith
10:34
When can we expect a Christian Stewart promotion? Dude is raking in Triple-A.
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Seems like it shouldn't be far off, with JaCoby Jones falling back down to earth
Chapultepec Audiorama
10:36
Where does Orlando Arcia’s defense rate on a scale of 0 to Andrelton Simmons?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Since 2016, among shortstops, Arcia is eighth in DRS and rather surprisingly 17th in UZR
Simmons is first in DRS and first in UZR
So, um, 6?
Sirras
10:37
Unsurprisingly, Kershaw is good using his breaking pitches even without the fastball. Also unsurprisingly, he may be slightly broken. If Kershaw is unable to continue as an elite pitcher, do you see him as a HoF candidate based on his career so far?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Yes
10:38
I mean, if his career were suddenly over, maybe there's an argument against him. But even if he's done being an ace, that doesn't mean he's done being good, and he's already had a Hall-of-Fame peak
Trevor Bauer
10:40
I am an ace.  Do you wish to argue that Jeff
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
No. 2
10:41
Bauer has faced a relatively easy schedule. As have or will all of the Indians pitchers
Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs
10:41
Verlander's been great but has a 90.9% strand rate.  There's no way he sustains that, right?  Or is it actually a function of him pitching so well that, on the off chance someone does make it on base, the following hitters have almost no chance of driving them in?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Nah -- just about every tiny ERA is dependent in some part on luck. Opponents so far have hit .164 against Verlander with the bases empty, but that drops to .057 with runners in scoring position
That'll turn around, but it doesn't mean Verlander will actually be any worse than he is right now
Jeremy
10:43
If the Mariners played in the wild card game next week and had to start Felix or LeBlanc, who do you think they should/would?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Felix would probably start, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if LeBlanc were warming at the same time
Not Finnigan
10:44
Scooter Gennet, huh?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
The .399 BABIP ain't real, but if Gennett played in Boston or New York, he'd have a few magazine covers by now
Since the start of last season, Gennett has a 133 wRC+. Betts is at 132
Ethan
10:46
Jeff can you tell me anything to make me feel better about Felix?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
I just answered a question about the improbably valuable Scooter Gennett
If Scooter Gennett can figure it out, so can a broken-down Felix Hernandez
Brendan H.
10:47
Are Matt Davidson's massive batting  improvements sustainable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
Not to this degree, but I can buy him as an above-average hitter now
10:48
Not much evidence on the record of a hitter actually being able to trim his chase rate by 12 points season to season
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