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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/2/17
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Erik
9:31
Would you take the over or under on the Cubs playoff odds, currently sitting at 80.2%? They look every part the .500 team they've played as so far, but the division is weak, and essentially the same crop of players was easily the best team in baseball just last year.
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Over. They should win that division by several games
Sim
9:32
Everyone says Nola has elite stuff but he has yet to really put it all together. What do you think has been his issue? Health? Command?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Health, with cascading effects on command. If Nola can ever get back to pitching at 100%, he's going to be terrific
For the record I would advise stopping short of claiming his stuff is "elite." It's good
Jason Vargas
9:33
Love me
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
6.32 ERA over your last three starts with 7 walks and 12 strikeouts
Will
9:34
Aaron Hicks: Discuss
Jeff Sullivan
Jiminy cricket
9:35
How does a team's division vs. WC playoff odds impact their trade deadline acquisitions? If teams A and B have similarly constructed rosters but team A has an 80% chance at the division and team B has an 80% chance at a WC, is team A more likely to prioritize looking for a dominant SP to help in the playoffs while team B is more likely to just upgrade wherever?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
It kind of always depends on the specific circumstances, but teams will be less likely to swing a blockbuster if the potential benefit is just one single playoff game. Teams want some certainty that a big deadline acquisition will get more than one postseason chance
Billy
9:36
Albert Pujols had a 24.5 UZR in 2007
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Used to be really good at basically everything
Reginald Denton III
9:36
What do the Cubs do with Addison Russell?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Keep him and be happy that he is valuable
Cistulli Chat
9:37
12:00 Carson: Hello Everyone and welcome to the chat

12:01 Fangraphs Reader: What do you think about my favorite team?

1:05 Carson:
(2000 carefully chosen words on ‘Fangraphs Readers’ favorite team, life, and how it’s all meaningless or maybe not meaningless)

1:06 Carson: And that’s all I’ve got time for today I have to go garden. Thanks for chatting
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I do love that Carson ends up getting activated for our postseason live-blogs
Moltar
9:38
In your Insider piece today you talk about how Harvey still has the stuff to be successful, but no longer generates swings and misses. Is it reasonable to think that Harvey is still less than %100? If the Mets' injury prevention program wasn't a dumpster fire, would he have been better served starting the year on the DL and pitching a full compliment of rehab starts?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
Well, that's impossible for us to know and be any kind of certain. My hunch is that Harvey had his delivery kind of screwed up when he made that emergency start against Atlanta, but that's just uninformed speculation
9:39
I have yet to do a real Harvey deep dive. But it's instantly clear that his O-Swing even from last year has dropped 10 percentage points. That's a problem with his secondary stuff, and not his fastball
9:40
...which then becomes a problem for his fastball, since hitters can look for it
I'm sure I'll put together a Harvey analysis before too much longer
Hank
9:40
Will the Braves be able to flip Jaime Garcia for a solid return?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Contract year, long history of health problems, extremely mediocre performance. Nothing much going to happen here
Jack
9:42
What are the chances we see anyone trade international cap space at the trade deadline? Will teams wait until the offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
High, right? We've seen these trades happen midseason before.
The Professor
9:43
The park factor for Wrigley seems extremely unfavorable this year. Do you think this will continue? Would you rather have me or Gerrit Cole RoS?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
The Cubs have played 25 home games. That isn't enough to tell you anything
There's a good reason why park factors are calculated based on several years of data
Front Office
9:45
Will teams continue to hire more analytics personnel or have we hit a glass ceiling?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
more more more
Zeke
9:45
On the one hand, it's remarkable that am 80% depleted, Gallardo-led rotation should have been able to go .500 in May. On the other, Dipoto traded for Smyly (an injury risk), signed Iwakuma (who didn't pass his Dodgers physical), has Felix (with more miles on his arm than, I don't know, a really old car), and Paxton (who is so damn good and also gets hurt all the time). What did he expect? I admire the depth Dipoto built but also wonder about the initial construction.
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Easy to ask the question after the fact. Dipoto made no secret of the fact he was assembling a bunch of rotation depth over the winter. It's not weird that so many pitchers have gotten hurt. It's weird that they've all gotten hurt at the same time
That's where teams *really* get killed
Zonk
9:46
Runners have been successful vs. Jon Lester only 6 times in 14 attempts (43%!), despite his very well documented inability to throw to first. Is that attributable to a fast delivery? Willson Contreras? Baserunners STILL not geting a big lead? What's up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
I took a quick look at this a little while ago and it's a combination of things, but there's a big chunk of almost randomness. A handful of strikeout-throwout double plays. Lester has actually achieved a pickoff or two, throwing to second and starting a pickle
9:48
Runners continue to mess themselves up, but it should be clear by now that, in reality, Lester just isn't as exploitable as it seems like he should be
PF
9:48
I don't know if you are a "prospect guy", but if so, are Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette the future of the Blue Jays offensive core?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
I am not a prospect guy, but I am a guy who will tell you that you probably shouldn't expect too much from a couple of teenagers in A-ball
9:49
Which is not to suggest that they aren't good prospects. Or even great prospects! They're very talented. But there are so, so many forks in the road in front of both of them
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