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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/3/16
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J
10:48
What would it take for the Dodgers to be sellers at the trade deadline, and what would they have to sell? Also, is it to soon to be so pessimistic about the Dodgers? Help me Jeff!
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Nothing wrong with being kind of disappointed by a .500 team that was supposed to be more like a .600 team but they'd have to go in a deep deep slump to sell pieces off. In a theoretical sale, Jansen would go. Maybe they'd finally cut bait on Puig. Not a ton else
The Noid
10:50
Where does last night's mariners game rank for you, in terms of gratifying regular season wins?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Top 1%. Only thing that could make it better would be it happening in September instead
or against the Rangers or something
Not that Ben
10:50
After James Shields getting shelled by the Mariners, is he still a hot commodity on the trade market?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Everyone knows he's diminished, and not worth his salary, but he's one of those proven workhorses and the pitching market blows.
Belted
10:51
Have the Giants built enough of a cushion in the west (5.5 games) to keep the division against your ROS projections?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Mathematically, yes!
Brown
10:52
Miami Marlins. What?
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
They always had the core talent. Now they've been filled out a little more. Dietrich has been fantastic in stepping in for Gordon. They're having the year the Diamondbacks wanted to have
earlsghost
10:53
Jeff: there's been talk that the Orioles will pursue another decent starter at the trade deadline. Shields is the name most commonly heard but there will obviously be competition for his services. What other teams could you see as possible sellers and what might be the names of alternatives? Thanks.
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Might I be able to sell you on one Jeremy Hellickson?
10:54
Or perhaps a very underwhelming Andrew Cashner!
JC
10:55
Let's say the Mariners win the world World Series this year, but Felix never puts up another season over +1 WAR... Do you make that deal with the devil?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Yes, because I'm a Mariners fan more than I'm a Felix fan, but I prefer the reality in which I don't have to try to make any bargains at all
mtsw
10:56
Estimate the number of MLB pitchers who are currently better than NPB wunderkind Shohei Otani right now.
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
20?
Hopeful Texas Fan
10:56
Does Jurickson stick in the majors or get traded? Part of just hopes they stick him at short. Also, what's the use in leaving Gallo in AAA with an 1.100 OPS?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
I don't think Profar sticks without an injury. Just not enough playing time to go around. As for Gallo, I'm sure they'd like for his attempted adjustments in Triple-A to stick. You don't want to rush a guy like that. But he has a big-league future this season if Moreland/Fielder continue to blow
Chris
11:00
Nomar Mazara is hitting ~300/350/475 on a ~30 home run pace as a 21 year old. Conventional wisdom says he'll get better with age. Where does he improve? What do his best years look like, offensively?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
He could stand to refine his discipline, and he could stand to learn to do more to the opposite field. I mean, that's what would allow him to be a complete hitter. As is, he'd kind of like Odor
He's doing more than I expected him to do in this initial cup of coffee. Very encouraging.
Max
11:02
Do you see anything from Folty that says he has a good chance of reaching a #2 starter?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Good chance? No
11:03
I do like that he's a strike-thrower, though, who keeps swings at strikes down. There's some sort of deception there that's improved from last season
Chris
11:05
What would Clayton Kershaw's numbers look like if opposing batters knew his pitch sequencing (not location) ahead of time? EG he tells them he'll throw first pitch fastball, second pitch curve, etc
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
The last few years Kershaw has thrown a ton of first-pitch fastballs and it's not like that's hurt him at all
11:06
But if I'm going to be honest his numbers would be a lot worse. Hitters wouldn't chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone. They'd key up on the fastball. Sequencing is a huge, huge part of his and anyone's success
Mitchell
11:06
With the new aging curve showing that players only decline, how do you account for players adjusting to the major league level? Is it 1 or 2 years in the majors and then they probably just won't get any better at all?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
Some players adjust, some players don't, and general aging curves don't apply to every player in particular
Bryan
11:07
Talk me off the ledge with Votto
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
If you're on a ledge because of Joey Votto's underwhelming offensive statistics you've got bigger problems
Maybe that's not very helpful
11:09
Since April 27, Votto has a 125 wRC+ and an extremely high hard-hit rate. Also, there's his entire history. There's no player in baseball I would worry about less
in Votto's age group
Bryan
11:09
Can Brad Miller put it all together?
Jeff Sullivan
11:11
He's always going to have his defensive questions, but his wRC+ is back up into the triple digits. He's a 3-win player, probably
Just saw a rumor that the Cubs "will look at" Andrew Miller as a trade target. I'll be damned. I will be damned.
Stu Martin
11:12
Is Adam Duvall for real or just a hot player?
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