Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/1/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Promising!
In June, 196 hitters had at least 50 batted balls tracked by Statcast
Kepler was 15th in average exit velocity, at 93.3mph. Tied with David Ortiz. Hair in front of Corey Seager
9:38
Problem: so far, Kepler has hit grounders a little harder than non-grounders. Those are mostly wasted. But the strength is legitimate
Mike
9:39
Happy Canada day! Is there a stat or chart that best shows a pitchers control of each individual pitch they throw?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
There's not really any one good presentation. My proxy: look at a pitcher's overall control, and then look at how often he throws his various pitches. Any pitch with a low frequency tends to be un-trusted
Dae-Ho Lee
9:40
Any chance David Ortiz pulls a flip-a-roo and signs up for another season? What a year to go out on.
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
I'd put the chances at like 2%
John
9:41
What do you think Ian Desmond gets in Free Agency? He has to be top 5 players available now right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Because he's in his 30s, I think you'll see a limited term, but it's been such a wonderful year for him I could see him getting something like the Alex Gordon contract
9:42
Gordon hit free agency as the more reliable player, but he was also older, and he took a discount
JTT
9:43
How did the legend of "Ichiro could hit home runs he just doesn't feel like it" get started. Can't basically every MLB caliber player rip homers during BP?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I'm not sure how it actually started but I do assume it had to do with his consistent shows in BP. And, yeah, most hitters can go deep regularly in BP, but Ichiro made a habit of it. He'd hit almost every pitch out sometimes, and he said in some interviews that he could be a power hitter if he were willing to suffer through a reduced average
If you watch some old Ichiro clips, there's definitely a power swing, along with the slap swing. But I do figure the power-swing capability wound up exaggerated, mostly because we never saw it consistently deployed
9:45
Because nothing was ever proven wrong, we're allowed to live with our fantasies
Erik
9:45
Jeremy Hellickson is having a career year, at least according to xFIP (3.84) and is on pace for about 2 WAR. In a thin starter market, what might he be worth?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Probably around whatever Bud Norris just got
K-Man
9:46
What is going on with the FanGraphs App? It is utterly useless :( I bought it in the hope that I could access all your stats pages and the articles quickly, but it only shows career #s and the tables are not extensive or sortable. Is there an update or a new App coming anytime soon?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I don't think anyone has worked on the app in a couple of years
As far as I know there are zero plans to change that
Sorry!
JD
9:47
Why do teams that are out of it wait so long to sell? Ex. A's. Since they knew they were not going to contend players they will be trading (Rich Hill, Doolittlte) have been hurt. How much bigger payoff can they get by waiting?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
There's not much of an incentive to sell early since prices remain elevated through the deadline. And nobody *wants* to sell and it sends a bad message to the fans and the players. The Indians have won, what, 13 games in a row? Everyone thinks they can go on a hot streak. Everyone *can* go on a hot streak. And then one hot streak changes the whole complexion of the standings
9:49
Going with your example, the A's can wait this out a bit longer. They're 35-44. They have 20 games between now and July 24. If they win...14 of those, they're just about .500, and being just about .500 opens up the wild-card possibility. And the A's can probably only get healthier
9:50
Think of it kind of like pitchers and Tommy John surgery. From the outside, we hear about a damaged UCL and we think "just have the surgery already." You know what sucks? Going through surgery! Pitchers want to do anything else.
Dae-Ho Lee
9:50
Any plans on hiking The Greater Yellowstone or Glacier soon?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Next summer. This summer is dedicated to OR/WA/ID
JD
9:51
Who is the best player dealt at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Thinking Sonny Gray or Rich Hill?
gcarter
9:51
Could the strategy of having pitchers play the field be used more often? It seems like it could be used more often in the last few innings with relief pitchers.
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Yeah, I've long been amazed we haven't seen that sort of thing done more
mtsw
9:52
Fangraphs now has the Orioles as favorites for the AL East. Do you agree with this projection? Even with the banked games, hard to see how they stay on top with that pitching staff.
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Even though I'm literally looking right at the numbers my gut tells me the Blue Jays take this, in the end
gee
9:54
More likey to produce this season: Bregman, Margot, Benintendi?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
A few weeks ago I would've said Bregman, but now that Valbuena is hitting, and with the Astros working out Gurriel, I'm going to say Benintendi instead
JD
9:55
Will cubs upgrade anything other than bullpen? Seems like they have so much depth even after all the injuries.
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
The Cubs don't really need any upgrades. Of course they'll search, and they could improve the relief, but they're the least desperate of anyone
NatsFan
9:57
Got any thoughts on Gio Gonzalez? He's becoming more of a TTO pitcher, with a K/9 rate over 9, a BB/9 rate over 3, and an HR/FB rate that more than doubled from last year. Anything going on here that won't be fixed by regression?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
The home-run problems were really just in May, and then there was one game where he allowed three of them. Hasn't allowed multiple homers in any other start. He seems mostly normal to me, and with each passing start he's re-gaining some velocity. It's worth noting that, on average, he's still down almost 2 ticks from last season, and that's meaningful -- you'd assume, based on that, he's a worse pitcher. But I still like him fine
Dock Ellis
9:59
I had a dream that Joe Morgan (yes that Joe Morgan) was in a park and he picked up a ball, threw it in the air and hit it with a bat. The ball proceeded to hit me in my groin. What the hell does that mean?
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