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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/13/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:33
(poor Orioles)
Kevin
9:34
Hello friend. Who do you think was the biggest All-Star snub?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
If I can be completely honest with you for a moment, I don't care
So many players get inserted and replaced I can't keep track of who has actually made the team
I guess Jed Lowrie is on the team now? That's good
I'd point to Eddie Rosario then
9:36
3.4 WAR this season, 5.0 WAR over the past calendar year. That goes with a 132 wRC+ (679 plate appearances)
9:37
Oh, Anthony Rendon too
9:38
3.1 WAR this season, 5.9 WAR over the past calendar year. That goes with a 133 wRC+ (581 plate appearances)
Bryce Harper career WAR/600: 4.7
Anthony Rendon career WAR/600: 4.6
9:39
And you'd never know it from reading the internet or watching TV
Simba Snubbed
9:39
Is the baseball world ready for JRam to catch up to Trout in WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
Even if he does, it's temporary. It's always temporary
9:40
And of course Ramirez gets to hit against much, much easier opponents
According to BP, Jose Ramirez has faced the second-worst average opponent for any regular hitter in baseball
9:41
Ramirez is great! Trout is far better
Dystiopian Future
9:41
Will there be a fresh new wave of disappointment or will it just be perceived as more of the same if the A's catch the Mariners in September and pass them for WC2?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Kind of depends how it happens. Do the A's stay white-hot, or do the Mariners just collapse?
I'm thankful that at least the WC2 race in the AL is becoming a little more interesting. No one wants to have the playoff picture settled in early July
9:44
Less than a month ago, the A's were 11 games behind the Mariners. Now the difference is five. Over that stretch, the A's have outscored their opponents by 34, while the Mariners have been outscored by 22
If the Angels were going to fade, at least someone has stepped into their place
Furious Brosius
9:45
What's thoughts on Tony Kemp?  Whats he doing next year?  Do you believe he will every be an everyday hitter?  Thank you
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
So the thing about Kemp is that he makes very weak contact
He's hit exactly two balls this season at 100+ miles per hour. They both clocked in at 100.2
9:49
Out of the 303 players with at least 100 batted balls, Kemp ranks 298th in average exit velocity, and 303rd -- last -- in peak exit velocity
9:50
He runs well, but he doesn't run *so* well that he can beat out every grounder
9:51
In this day and age, I think it's important to recognize the upside in guys who can walk as often as they strike out. Kemp's approach is just fine. But given his extremely limited power profile, I think he's most likely to end up as a supersub
Mike
9:51
Hi Jeff, Theoretical question: What would a player's OBP have to be to justify a spot on a major league roster if they had a .000 average and played average defense at their position?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
This is where the Guts page comes in https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn
Let's just say we want this guy to have a league-average wOBA even though he literally never gets a hit
9:53
The league-average wOBA is .314. The walk value you see there is .689
So he'd need a walk every 2.19 plate appearances
9:54
That's an OBP of .456
That's actually a little lower than I would've guessed
9:55
But remember the current league-average OBP is .318
9:56
How this guy walks so often without ever getting a hit, I haven't the foggiest
Johnny
9:58
Is it feasible Ohtani could finish this season as only a hitter, get TJ surgery this winter, play next season as only a hitter, then both pitch and hit the following year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
When Shin-Soo Choo had Tommy John surgery at the end of September 2007, he wasn't playing again until the middle of the following May
10:00
T.J. Rivera had Tommy John surgery last September, and he's still rehabbing
10:01
Now, Choo and Rivera both needed to get to the point where they could hit *and* play defense. Ohtani, presumably, wouldn't have to worry about the second part
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