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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/13/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Maybe he could be ready to hit by next May. But obviously the Angels are going to have to chart their own course here -- not much precedent for a rehabbing pitcher who is simultaneously a semi-regular DH
10:02
TJ rehab is grueling and draining, and Ohtani might not always have the mental energy needed to play in a live game
Nick
10:05
Is there a compelling reason to keep post-deadline waiver trades? For a sport that wants more attention, wouldn't it be better to say "This is the trade deadline! Now or never!" Watch MLB Network all day!"?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I think they should just abolish the distinction and have one single set deadline around the middle or end of August
Dave wrote about this years ago!
Zihuatanejo
10:06
Re: your Machado article, how does the value of keeping such a player off a competitor affect the trade price?  I.e., should the Dodgers or Diamondbacks be willing to pay more for Machado just to keep him off the rival team?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
In theory this is kind of baked into every trade. Every time you trade for a good player, you're keeping that good player from going to a rival
10:07
Now, rivals aren't always in position to want the same upgrades, but it's not like as far as this deadline is concerned, it's Machado or bust. Even if someone loses out on Machado, that team can go get somebody else and improve
10:08
So to me it's more or less a non-factor. I mean, it does matter a little bit to keep someone away from your competition, but that's always been true, so the precedent holds
Reg Mowley
10:09
Who would you rather have long term: Albert Almora or Ian Happ?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Happ
10:11
Almora is the better defender, and he makes more contact, but I prefer Happ's discipline, and Happ's *quality* of contact is far superior
Consider, for example, expected wOBA on contact
10:12
Happ ranks 15th in baseball. Almora ranks 280th
.....
10:13
A few chats back (and I don’t even know if it was yours) someone said they just finished watching The Office and have determined that Jim and Pam are terrible people; if that person is here can he/she please expand on this cause its interesting.
Jeff Sullivan
That's just Jim, but still
Erik
10:14
I know you don't care about the Hall of Fame, but Willians Astudillo is a first-ballot shoo-in, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
He struck out :(
Reg Mowley
10:14
Who are you most excited to see in the home run derby?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
A good book
10:15
Let's be honest -- they're all perfectly adequate home-run hitters
And in a contest like this, it's impossible to predict who could get hot. I mean, Todd Frazier won the damn thing!
10:17
Harper and Schwarber are likely to hit the most impressive home runs, if that's your thing
It's sad there will be no Stanton or Judge
10:18
I couldn't give a shit about watching Bregman try to go deep
Quietly the most interesting part might be Baez, because everything is going to be in the zone. He never gets to do that on TV!
Poised
10:19
Is Trevor Story actually really good? Potential 5 win player down the road?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Pretty easy to figure this one out -- Story has cut down on his strikeouts
10:20
His chase rate is down, his in-zone swing rate is up, and his contact is up
I don't think he's really going to be a 5-win player, but he is the best version of himself at the moment
Eric
10:22
Will the Mets get more for Familia than the Royals got for Herrera?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
By a little bit, yeah, I think so
It'll be within the margin of error, because the Mets aren't going to get a blockbuster, but they can do better and even besides that, the trading team will owe Familia less money than the Nationals were poised to owe Herrera, since they got him so early
Jerry DiPoto
10:23
Am I right in thinking that adding Seth Lugo makes most sense for our pitching needs? Can be an effective multi-inning reliever while also stepping up as a SP if needed and at least able to give SP's a break if needed, assuming everyone stays healthy. I am thinking I should add Marco Estrada and Seth Lugo, thoughts? Or do I add Zach Britton and Seth Lugo? Also, Guillermo Heredia has been exposed, what do I do there? Add Asdrubal Cabrera to play 2b and move Dee to CF right now and then Cabrera to UT when Cano returns? Or I can maybe talk Scott into just playing Haniger in CF, Gamel in RF and Span in LF more often.
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
This is way too much of a question
Which is probably actually an accurate portrayal of the man himself
10:24
Yes, Seth Lugo would make sense for the Mariners. No, I don't think the Mariners have what it would take to acquire Seth Lugo, because the farm system is a catastrophe
10:25
Maybe if they took on some bad money, but it's not like the Mariners should include Jay Bruce
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