Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/15/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Lindor, perhaps, and then...I don't know, is Jay Bruce overrated? Does anyone care?
Carlos Gonzalez feels a little overrated-y
Seth
9:59
least likely to be traded: lucroy, bruce, reddick--or are they all packing bags?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
I guess Lucroy might be the least likely, but I'd still say he's likely
Reginald Denton III
10:00
The Ranger have a poor run differential, given their record. They've had some very lopsided losses. Couldn't I make the argument that they've managed games differently when they've gotten down (in order to rest their better bullpen arms), and those big losses really aren't an accurate reflection of their team?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
The biggest driver in the Rangers' success has been clutch hitting. I don't think that has anything to do with bullpen management
10:03
Every team loses blowouts and every team manages blowouts differently. It would be hard to convince me that the Rangers are somehow something historically special
Jack
10:05
Does it make sense for the Phillies to hold on to Hellickson and give him a QO? They either end up with a comp pick or a year of an average-ish pitcher. Has to be better than what they would get in a trade, no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Well that depends entirely on the market. I don't know what teams would be offering for Hellickson. That would also provide insight into what his FA market would look like in a few months. As a rule of thumb, I don't think you want to get too protective of a Hellickson type
10:07
Hellickson against good teams: 4.70 ERA
Hellickson against worse teams: 2.03 ERA
Reginald Denton III
10:07
Will the Yankees wait a week or two before making any trades just to see where they're sitting and if they have a realistic shot at the WC?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
That's my guess. Their players aren't going to get less valuable within a week or two
Maxamuz
10:07
Tell me good things about Julio Teheran
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
His slider is better and he's more effective against lefties
Erik
10:09
I was arguing with a friend about where Koufax ranks in the best pitcher of all time conversation. I said he'd be fighting for a spot in the back of the top ten, due to his complete lack of longevity, but he said he'd be in contention for the top spot, due to his dominant peak. I know it's ultimately subjective and pointless, but could you agree with me so I can screenshot your response and send it to him? (Or give an honest opinion, I guess.)
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Depends entirely on the question. By best career, no, Koufax isn't in contention for the top spot. But if you're just arguing the pitcher who's at some point been the most talented? Then, sure.
10:11
Like, if the question is which peak pitcher do you want starting Game 7, I can see Koufax. The right answer is still Pedro Martinez, but
Mike
10:11
Hill for Dietrich, who says no
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Ooh, good question. Dietrich is a total Oakland type
10:12
I think the Marlins say no because they could use Dietrich next season
Mike
10:12
Does someone give up a Shelby Miller-type package for Gray? Or is Miller himself enough of a dissuasion now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Everyone in the industry already hated that trade
10:13
But Gray himself has turned away enough suitors
2-D
10:14
At the beginning of the year you compared Cody Anderson to Matt Harvey. So who starts to resemble pre-2016 Matt Harvey first, Harvey or Anderson?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
Harvey gets the inside track on account of being Matt Harvey, but his surgery is a big deal. Really don't know how well he'll come back from that
And in fairness, Anderson got a lot better by K-BB%! And his velocity was up. But he has an issue with secondary pitches...
Ronnie
10:15
Is Kal Daniels the most unknown great hitter of recent vintage? His 140 career wRC+ is tied with the likes of Mike Piazza, Larry Walker, Josh Donaldson, Jason Giambi, Buster Posey & David Ortiz for the 30th best of the last 30 years.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
One point in support: I've never heard of him before
J
10:16
Looking at his career numbers, is Giancarlo the perfect example of a 50 hit 80 power guy? Even his walk rate seems to be more from zone% and fewer first pitch strikes than O-swing. Is it fair to say his power alone was worth so much it allowed him to have a 142 career wRC+?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Seems like a fair assessment. No one in the majors has Stanton's power. No one, not with that consistency. And that covers up almost all his other flaws
10:17
It also means his decline could be ugly. And he'd be particularly ravaged by a bad hip or oblique. But for now, good god, he's something else
NYTT
10:18
Do you think the Braves might get better value for Vizcaino in the offseason? It'd be risky, but if he can hold up over a full season and gets back to his early season form his value would be higher I'd assume.
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
If Vizcaino strings together a few dominant outings, you move him now. If he keeps struggling to throw strikes, then you wait
His stuff still looks good, though, so suitors shouldn't need much convincing
J
10:19
Sustainably by how much would you say the limit is for over/under performing FIP? Estrada is really reaching a new level to me it seems.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Chris Young for his career has a gap of 72 points. That's about as much as I'd bank on. Now, Estrada has the additional benefit of Kevin Pillar
10:21
And also, Young has had a way bigger stolen-base issue. So maybe the max would be around 80 or 90 points
Paul
10:22
Disappointed to see MLB not coming to London next year. Would it not have made more sense to go to Italy or Netherlands where baseball has more presence than in the UK? I'm not sure Wembley, or any soccer ground, has the right dimensions. The only place I can think of is the Oval cricket ground but the capacity is far too small.
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a significant MLB presence in Europe in the next few years. Italy, Germany, Netherlands, so on. It's a Manfred priority
If they can play big-league baseball in Australia, they can play big-league baseball in a lot of places
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