Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/15/16
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Erik
10:23
Does the Pomeranz trade "set the market" in any meaningful way? Will teams justify their demands based on how good the pitcher they're selling is compared to Pomeranz? Or is the only affect of this trade on other trades the fact that one more pitcher is now off the market?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I think the market was already unofficially set. This is the sort of trade that was just going to happen. Everyone knew Boston would get an arm, and everyone basically knew it would take Espinoza or Devers
Jay
10:25
Nomar Mazara has to be the leading AL ROY contender, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Keep your eye on Michael Fulmer and Tyler Naquin. Mazara is still in the lead but he's gotten worse with every passing month
10:26
Hasn't been good since, what, May?
person
10:26
So, of the 50 most highly valued assets in baseball, plus the honorable mentions, there's not a Mariner even close. What a bummer.
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
With big second halves, Walker and Paxton could make their cases. But this has been a known issue. Dipoto inherited a team without a long-term young core
kris
10:27
Who now makes the most sense for Teheran? Rangers? Could do a Teheran+Viz deal to them, as well
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Yeah, Rangers are probably the answer
person
10:28
Star Trek or Star Wars?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
I don't care about either
Buddy Holly Ben Hur Space Monkey
10:28
TB Staff 2016 (ERA-/FIP-) -->> Archer(113/101); Smyly(132/106); Odorizzi(108/104); Moore(108/109)
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Remember when the Rays were known for their defense? Now it's basically all about Kiermaier, and Kiermaier's been hurt
10:29
Fun fact: in Kiermaier's last game, the Rays were 20-20. Since then, they've been the worst team in baseball
10:31
Running some quick BABIP calculations...
10:32
Rays pre-Kiermaier injury: .266
Rays post-Kiermaier injury: .343
Very obviously, it hasn't been all Kiermaier. That would be insane. But talk about a difference-maker. The Mariners had a similar slump when they lost Leonys Martin
Buddy Holly Ben Hur Space Monkey
10:33
Thoughts on the Rays? What happened to their rotation this year? Where are they as an organization? Will they be sellers at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
They're going to sell. They have a starter or two to move. Odorizzi or Moore could fetch something decent. I think the Rays still have the capacity to be a decent contender in 2017 but they need to be healthier
I think their margin of error over time is diminishing. They'd probably agree with the assessment. They need a catcher
Kevin
10:34
How surprised were you by the return for Pomeranz? What kind of return were you expecting?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Not to repeat myself but I basically expected something a lot like this
10:35
Now, in the bigger picture, to go from Alonso/Rzepczynski to Espinoza in a few months -- that's beautiful
egon
10:35
i was doing research and figured out that mike trout is a good player.
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Come work for FanGraphs!
_David_
10:35
What would you estimate Brad Miller's true talent defensive ability is?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
-10 as a shortstop
Shortstops gotta be able to throw
Matt
10:36
Will we actually see the Yankees seel this season? Maybe just not buy?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I think they ultimately sell one reliever
mike
10:36
does the pom trade increase teherans value?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
nah
Kelly
10:36
Crazy to think Dylan Bundy will just keep pitching if they have no other chance to win?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
As long as Bundy looks good, Bundy will pitch
Junior
10:37
Would you rather have 1 elite prospect or 2-3 middle tier prospects in a trade like the Padres and Sox?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
I'd generally take quantity over one really good low-level pitching prospect
person
10:38
Odds that the Mariners make it to 20 years without a playoff appearance?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
15%?
Kyle
10:39
Hey, Jeff! Do you get the sense that the Mets have a systemic issue dealing with young arms, or is the daunting wave of health problems with their potential aces something that is more heavily linked to poor practices in youth baseball and abuse at the college level?
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