Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/19/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:36
There's showmanship everywhere
Mark
10:36
Who is the next big name to get dealt?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I don't know where the "big name" cutoff is, but Sonny Gray is going to go
10:38
He's supposed to start in a couple hours
I wonder what the chances are that he's suddenly scratched
Geoff
10:39
Willson Contreras is 10th in MLB (1st among Catchers) in WAR for the trailing 30 days and has a 161 wRC+. YTD he trails only Buster Posey in WAR. How much longer until this guy becomes a household name?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
His challenge is standing out among the deep crop of star players in Chicago. Anthony Rendon still isn't a household name. It's not his fault. It's Bryce Harper's fault
Tarik
10:40
How do you assess Sonny Gray's value? Can he return 2 top-50 prospects?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Depends on the top-50 prospects. He can return two in the 26-50 range, but he's less valuable than Quintana, who brought back two guys in the top 100
Gray can't get two top-50 types if one of them is about as good as Eloy Jimenez
Chris
10:41
If the Indians were at least in discussions about JD Martinez, is it safe to assume they've inquired about Cutch, too?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
That would be a safe assumption
mike
10:41
with their mew found depth what could the yankees get if they decided to trade betantces
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Less now than a few months ago
vimarkings
10:42
Why does Fangraphs think the Blue Jays still a playoff possible? They need to play 667 just to reach 89 wins!
Jeff Sullivan
Our current odds don't think making the playoffs will require 89 wins
Dan
10:43
FYI: Brewers, losers of 3 straight; Cubs, winners of 5 straight
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Would anyone be surprised if the magic were ending?
On the other hand, you don't want to overreact, just because it conforms to expectations; the Brewers do still have a multi-game lead
RK
10:44
Perhaps a better question for Dave, but I'll ask you anyway: if you had a comprehensive database of contract situations (with buyouts, options, etc) and used Zips or some other projection system, what would be the biggest obstacle to creating a continuously updating productionalized/simple version of the trade value list for every player ranked in terms of excess win value over contract?  Is that something that has been considered?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
In theory, something like this is doable. In fact, I know of companies out there that offer information much like the above. They basically track full organizational surplus value. It's something that could be built, even here, but it would probably be too complicated, and it would require near-constant attention. You'd have to build in ways of estimating future earnings, that change along with the projections, and...well, look, I don't know what it's like to code stuff like this, but I can see why Dave just puts this together once or twice a year
We'd all probably love to have a feature like that, but it's overwhelming to think about building it
Kirk
10:47
The Red Sox have played 58 innings in 4 days. How much do you think something like this affects a team, both in the short-term and the long-term?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
And they don't get a day off for more than another week. Long-term, I don't think it really matters, but short-term, you'll probably need some roster shuffling because the pitchers will get exhausted
Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs
10:48
Rumors about that Swanson may be demoted.  Is there any logic to this?  Why play Camargo instead?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
Because Camargo has somehow been good, and Swanson has been bad
Jeff
10:48
Can you say something nice about the Blue Jays?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I like their home run goal horn
Amy
10:49
Billy Beane said that the A's are entering a full rebuild in advance of the new stadium. How would you go about the rebuild if you were running the A's?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
A lot like this, plus a Sonny Gray trade
klof
10:50
Do the Cubs consider trading away Arrieta while trading for a more cost controlled starter? Has something like that occurred before? What AL teams would be a fit for Arrieta?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Don't think it makes sense. His value is too far down, and the Cubs could still use him
FGFan
10:50
Which was the last team as good as these Dodgers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
The 2016 Chicago Cubs
Alec Asher Wojciechowski
10:50
What do the Astros do when Keuchel is back? 6 man rotation? Or whi of Peacock/Fiers/Morton goes to the pen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
You'll probably see some shuffling to give different starters days off, but I wouldn't be shocked if Peacock went into a swingman role
A person
10:51
Is J.D. Martinez's defense so bad that the Dodgers just simply weren't interested in upgrading their bat in LF of
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Probably
jon
10:51
Would the Pirates trade Felipe Rivero so soon? What kind of return would he get if he's traded?
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