You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/20/18
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
I think he'll be a little better in the second half, but he's still not a guy I'd want to be playing every day
Mac Gwire
9:27
Should the Nationals trade Harper if they fall 10 games back by the end of the month?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
They should at least entertain it. But I can see why there might not be a blockbuster available, if his numbers were to stay down
Slew
9:28
Hi, Jeff! Agree with the 1-2 trade value ranking for Ramirez and Lindor?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Really hard not to. Even if I wanted to move them, I couldn't do it by more than a couple of spots. They're just such a fantastic duo
Bo
9:29
How does Acuna project in CF? Inciarte's struggles at the plate are getting tough to swallow.
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
It's all just BABIP stuff. I think Inciarte is still really a 90-100 wRC+ kind of guy, and with his defense, you want to have him in there
For his career, Inciarte's WAR/600 stands at 2.6, and he's 27 years old. He's just fine
Fail son
9:32
In two years do you think the braves or the Phillies has the better rotation (exclude hypothetical free agents)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
I guess I'm at about 55% Braves/45% Phillies, but it also doesn't make sense to exclude hypothetical free agents since one of the Phillies' big selling points is their spending power
9:34
The Phillies have the better rotation right now, but the Braves appear to have more high-level guys coming, for however predictable that might or might not be
Jack
9:34
Has James Shields had a decent enough year that a contender could look at him to slide in as a 4 or 5 in their rotation if the ChiSox eat some money? He’s in the last year of his deal and I feel like this could be the last year of his career, and it’s kind of a bummer to see him spending it on a team like the White Sox
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
I expect that Shields will end up somewhere else, yeah. Maybe in August. Obviously, the White Sox wouldn't be receiving very much in return
Kiner's Disembodied Hands
9:36
Gregory Polanco has gotten his wRC+ up to 120.  If he can maintain that and if his defense regresses to career norms, he can still be a stud.  But what the heck has happened to his defense?  is it mostly noise?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Outs above average, according to Statcast:

2016: +4
2017: -1
2018: -1
9:38
Our numbers make it look like Polanco has gotten worse in 2018; those numbers make it look like he got worse in 2017. I'd think of him as simply an average defensive corner outfielder, for now. Neither a plus nor a minus
Derek in Little Rock
9:39
Thoughts on FanGraphs being the outlier (versus Baseball Prospectus and 538) in favoring the Nationals to win the NL East?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
BaseRuns actually thinks the Nationals have been a little better than the Phillies, and the Nats, of course, have been really banged up. It feels like our projections are a little too down on the Braves, so I'd knock the Nationals' chances down some points, but I still think of them as being very strong
9:41
Instead of having the Nationals at 46%, I might have them at...30-35%
Bo
9:43
Do the Braves really need to trade for bullpen depth? Why can't they use some of their prospects in AAA out of the 'pen down the stretch?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
They need help, especially with Vizcaino sidelined again, and while in theory they could promote any number of their young talented arms, shoving them in a stretch-run bullpen could easily be disruptive
9:45
Not that it shouldn't be considered as an option, but there are enough relievers available that they should be able to acquire an upgrade without giving up entirely too much
Mattyb
9:46
Do you see Seattle acquiring any offensive upgrades at the deadline or do they just wait for Cano to come back?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I wonder if they might be somewhat interested in a short-term Leonys Martin reunion
Guillermo Heredia has been exposed as a nearly everyday player. They could also bring up Vogelbach to play more often at first
Stop Sliding Head First
9:49
Hi Jeff. Trout, Correa,Bryant last year. Several players this year and last night Tatis Jr hurt Sliding Head first. It is a dumb injury in a game that is hard enough already. Do you ever see a Team banning their players from Sliding Head First?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
"Video analysis of half of the games played in the major leagues in 2015, prorated for the entire season, estimated the rate of injury to be one for every 249 headfirst slides, compared with one for every 413 feet-first slides."
"Managers generally discourage players from sliding headfirst at first base and home plate, but there are exceptions depending on the particular play. The widespread feeling is that major leaguers should make their own decisions in the moment and that injuries are an inevitable part of the game.

“A lot of what we do on the field is instinctual, not instructional,” said A. J. Hinch, the Astros’ manager."
9:52
I don't think a team will ever outright *ban* the headfirst slide, because some players think it's faster, and you get a little more control over where you're making contact with the bag. But the headfirst slide can be and is being strongly discouraged
Rick
9:53
Hey Jeff. Since doubtful Dodgers will sign Machado, what does your crystal ball say for next year and beyond? Any favorites like Phillies or Cubs, or think he jumps back to AL with Yankees? Thanks and have a great weekend.
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Strongly believe it'll be the Phillies
9:54
It's not like I have in-depth intel to fall back on, but that's the sense I've gotten from looking at the landscape and from having a few conversations. The Phillies have everything Machado could want, and vice versa
Matt
9:55
If you're the Cardinals, what do you do with Jose Martinez? Play him at 1B, Carpenter at 3B and live with terrible infield defense? Play him in the outfield, where he's even worse, and sit Fowler/Bader? Trade him to an AL team where he can, and should, DH (maybe to the Mariners for a Kyle Lewis + package)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Just saw a report pre-chat that the Cardinals acknowledged they'll probably need to trade Martinez at some point to the AL
9:56
Now, his first-base numbers aren't so dreadful that he's unplayable. Granted, I haven't watched him as often as, say, the Cardinals have, so their impression deserves more weight. They seem to think he sucks. I can see him as a 1B/DH splitting time with another similar player
9:57
The Mariners would make for one obvious destination down the road if they don't re-sign Nelson Cruz. Could also see the Rays going there
9:58
Although that might require a lot more Jake Bauers in the outfield
Lilith
9:59
Does Raisel Iglesias have similar value to Brad Hand? Can the Reds expect a top 25 or so prospect in return for his services?
Connecting…