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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/24/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Carpenter in April: .265 wOBA
Carpenter since: .457
Carpenter in April: .404 expected wOBA
Carpenter since: .445
9:34
It's clear that expected wOBA doesn't accurately capture every single thing we would like it to. But when you see something like Carpenter's April, in terms of both of those numbers, the xwOBA really helps to take the edge off. Carpenter was likely always going to be fine
9:35
Regardless of whether he had any salsa
CamdenWarehouse
9:35
I thoroughly enjoyed the Hardball Times moment on last week's EW. Has Meg had words with you yet?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
She very courteously has not
adam
9:36
Would the Dodgers be willing to include Beuhler in a trade for DeGrom?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Can't imagine them getting to that point, assuming the Mets ask for Buehler+
That's one of those additions and subtractions. Hate those
Bo
9:37
Latest reports are that the Braves are looking for controllable talent... But is there really anyone who fits the bill that's available at the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Not very much. This deadline sucks. But they could target, say, Adam Conley! I think I might write about him after the chat. He looks pretty good
Tyler
9:38
This year Jake Ordorizzi is ranked first among A.L. pitcher in Def.  He also ranks 101st overall in M.L. for pitcher Def.  There is no way that the N.L. has the 100 best Def pitchers in baseball is there?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
Def for pitchers is a function of playing time as a hitter. AL pitchers, obviously, seldom get to hit
You'd be better off looking at pitcher DRS, if you just want to know about defensive performance instead of positional adjustment for offensive WAR
Anthony
9:41
Any reason to believe that Archer's run prevention won't positively regress? I keep waiting for his ERA to match his FIP, but it's not happening.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Archer has a pretty long history of allowing slightly harder contact than average
It might come from the fact that he's so good at getting whiffs out of the zone that a lot of the contact he allows is *in* the zone
9:45
Still, this is a guy whose career ERA- is only five points worse than his FIP-. And he's been pitching in the AL East, where he's had to face tougher opposing lineups than most everyone else for a while
9:46
Archer might be a true-talent .310 BABIP guy or something. But I still like him a lot as a No. 2 who can look like a No. 1
Warren
9:46
As a padres fan, there's obviously lots of exciting young talent on the farm, but with the Hosmer contract appearing worse by the day and Hedges/Margot not taking any promising steps forward, is there anyone on the current roster who will be part of the Next Good Padres Team?  Should that be concerning?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Lucchesi is pretty talented
9:47
And Hosmer will be there, whether he deserves to be or not!
Kev
9:47
Jeff, thanks for making our Tuesdays much better. We appreciate all the time and effort into answering all of our questions!
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Sometimes the effort is minimal!
Billy Beane
9:47
Jeff, if you are chatting today does that mean I don't have to work tomorrow?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
I don't see why it wouldn't
Curtis
9:48
Why are the A's so successful this season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Deep lineup, improved defense, dominant back of the bullpen
9:49
Matt Chapman is becoming a legitimate star, and Blake Treinen is everything he was always supposed to be
9:50
By record, the A's are somewhat overachieving, but relative to the Mariners it's nothing
Brett
9:50
What would an A's trade with the Royals look like for Duffy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
It's hard for me to see the Royals going there now, with Duffy's stock low. Very difficult for the Royals and A's to agree on what, exactly, Duffy is right now
Mac Gwire
9:53
Every Britton stat seems like it's going in the wrong direction, but all the smart teams want him. What do they know that we don't?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
What they're offering
9:54
Britton is still getting whiffs, and he's still throwing hard. It's obvious the sinker is still in there somewhere. But it's one thing to find a pitcher interesting and it's quite another to get him in exchange for a couple quality prospects. I doubt the Orioles are looking at a blockbuster here
9:55
It's always weird to answer these questions during a chat when I don't know if a trade has happened without me noticing
So far, nope!
CrashedDavis
9:56
1) Getting chats with only a 1 work day gap is amazing, though we miss Meg and 2) i've seen Trumbo to Seattle rumors. is there any reason the Mariners want to do this? and do the Os get a return? and how much do they have to pay down?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
The Mariners already have Mark Trumbo. His name is Ryon Healy
Trev
9:57
Fill in the blank:   _______number of PA's Dan Vogelbach gets with the 2018 Mariners, _______ number of PA's Dan Vogelbach gets with the 2019 Mariners
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