JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/1/18

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/1/18

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Jeff Sullivan

9:55

Maybe they hope he can see some talent appearing around him in the bigs

9:56

For another thing, catchers are particularly hard to move for good value midseason. The Lucroy trade a few years ago was exceptional. Catchers are so important to a pitching staff and ideally you'd want to have that relationship beginning in spring. Realmuto is a better offseason trade candidate, if the Marlins' extension overtures are turned away

HappyFunBall

9:57

So the Nats trade deadline was more interesting that I initially thought. They basically stood pat, sure, but the Kintzler trade seems to have been a disciplinary measure. Today Shawn Kelley was DFA for his little temper tantrum last night over being too good to pitch with a 24 run lead.

Do you suppose Davey Martinez is done being a nice guy? Or is Rizzo being the hard ass for him?

Also LOLMets.

Jeff Sullivan

9:58

This is one of those cases where it's probably the smart move to defer to authority. The Nationals have particular knowledge about what Kintzler and Kelley were like, and if they believe those players were bad influences, it makes sense to subtract

It's not a coincidence this happened right after the Jeff Passan article at Yahoo; the Nationals might be trying to send a message to a number of people. We'll see if it's received!

v2micca

9:59

Most surprising player that will be put on waivers in the next month?

Jeff Sullivan

9:59

Almost everyone gets put on waivers in August

Few of the good ones actually clear

Purple Mays Haze

10:00

Saw a stat that BABIPs (or is it BAsBIP)? in the shift are actually higher than BABIPs into the...um, 'non-shifts'. Any ideas why that would be?

Jeff Sullivan

10:01

League BABIP without a shift: .295

League BABIP with a traditional shift: .292

10:02

The no-shift number goes up to .297 if you exclude pitchers

The important thing to remember here is selective sampling; it's not the same pool of players in either split. Certain types of guys get shifted, and certain types of guys don't, and those groups have different abilities

Wopaseft

10:03

Brewers SPs have the 3rd lowest GB% in baseball. How significant is this in terms of their newly-configured infield?

Jeff Sullivan

10:03

The Brewers overall have a ground-ball rate that's only about one point lower than average

Their strikeout rate is about one point higher than average

10:04

I think this is more about defensive shifting, and about the small positional adjustment between second base and third

10:05

Now, we'll see who actually ends up handling the bulk of the load at short

Mason

10:05

How good is Marco Gonzales? Can he emerge as the Mariners best player with the most trade value?

Jeff Sullivan

10:05

Gonzales is pretty good. 83 ERA-, 81 FIP-, 83 xFIP-

10:06

He's also controlled through 2023

But James Paxton has the most trade value. Even though he's only controlled through 2020, Paxton is an ace, and those guys are ever so hard to find

Guest

10:07

Do you listen to your own podcast episodes?

Jeff Sullivan

10:07

I cannot imagine wanting to do that

Ryan

10:07

How bad is the Brewer's defense going to be?

Jeff Sullivan

10:07

Well, the Brewers currently lead baseball in both DRS and UZR

So it's going to be worse, but it's still going to be good

Factory of Sadness

10:09

Willi Castro is in FG's top 10 on the list of prospects that moved around, even given the fact that he is probably multiple years from the majors. Obviously CF has been a black hole for the Cleveland Stereotypes, but for a Leonys Martin rental, that strikes me as an overpay (especially given just how many trades were made this year). Does this feel the same way to you?

Jeff Sullivan

10:09

Willi Castro has an 82 wRC+ in Double-A

Leonys Martin has been a two-win player in the majors

10:10

I get being kind of skeptical about Martin going forward, and I get why some people think the Indians should've gone for Pham instead, but I don't think this is a bad deal

Every organization has guys like Castro. He needs to hit if he wants to be a regular

Bort

10:12

Which flukey player is most likely to provide value into 2019 and beyond: Nick Martini or Dereck Rodriguez?

Jeff Sullivan

10:12

Is it cheating if I say they're both useful?

10:13

Martini has a good eye, and plus contact skills. Rodriguez has five pitches he throws at least 10% of the time, and a league-average contact rate in the bigs

10:14

Rodriguez could be a roughly average starting pitcher. Martini could be a fine fourth outfielder, or even fringe starter in the short-term

Dann

10:14

Tampa Bay's SP depth charts is, officially, (1) Glasnow. For a moment last night, it was empty. This is both interesting and wacky.

Jeff Sullivan

10:14

I love the image, and I love that they don't care

Dylan

10:15

Defend the Mets for hanging on to Zack Wheeler

Jeff Sullivan