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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/10/18
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Phil
10:35
As someone who has struggled with arrthymia, I can't imagine Jensen being able to handle that along with the physical stress of pitching and the emotional weight of being in the highest leverage situations. Best of luck to him.
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I don't think it makes it "better," but Jansen has dealt with something like this before. So at least it isn't coming out of nowhere
randplaty
10:36
Where is catcher framing value going? Any updates? Does fangraphs ever plan on including it in WAR? Should we be adding it in when evaluating catchers right now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I think there's some kind of framing component that's included in catcher DRS
10:37
As for when FanGraphs will fold it into WAR, I don't have a good answer for that right now, because it's not that simple. If you add it into catcher value, you have to remove the effect from pitcher value, and good luck sussing that out very cleanly
Daniel Carroll
10:37
My big concern about the M's is if they don't make it in this year, they may not make it for another 5. The Astros are gonna keep being impossibly good for a while, Oakland has a young core that could get stronger, the Angels are always a threat so long as Trout plays for them. Is there anything you can say to talk me down from the ledge beyond invoking the power of randomness?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
All I can say is you shouldn't be up on a ledge over the Mariners in the first place
10:39
They're a baseball team. They're a roughly average baseball team, in an unenviable short- and long-term position. Yeah, they're a little bit screwed, but have you ever just sat and watched a squirrel in a tree?
Stuafoo
10:40
Are pickoff throws actually effective when we’re talking errors vs outs? Another way to ask, why don’t pitchers fake pickoffs more often given that it achieves the same general result of keeping the runner close?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
I think the overwhelming majority of pickoff throws are of the lighter, never-going-to-work variety. It's a step off and an easy throw over, just because it might be more impactful for the runner to see a throw instead of just a look or a pump-fake
But are they effective when you zero in on the pickoffs thrown with intent? I honestly don't know! I don't have those numbers. I would sure like to
10:43
If I were a team I'd worry less about pitcher pickoffs and more about pitcher mechanical techniques to keep the runner guessing
I'm always reminded of Chris Tillman, who has only two career pickoffs, but also just 21 career steals against, with 30 caught steals
10:44
He does a great job of preventing the runner from knowing when he's about to go home
mmddyyyy
10:44
How many questions do you receive per question answered?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
Probably like 10 or 15
The queue is enormous
Harrison Bader
10:45
How did scouts whiff so hard on my speed and defense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
How did scouts whiff so hard on Aaron Judge's power?
10:46
It's funny to remember, too, how in the minors, Nolan Arenado wasn't considered a plus defender
10:47
Here's Eric from last November: "Bader has big-league tools. He’s a plus-plus runner from home to first, and that speed allows him to play center field competently. He has above-average bat speed and is able to turn on good velocity on the inner half, generating reliable power to his pull side."
Bader, of course, now appears even more than competent in CF
Liam
10:48
Are you sold on the new and improved gregory polanco?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I mean, he's basically 2016 Gregory Polanco, right?
10:49
He's improved, but we've also seen this before. He's like his 2016 self, plus 5% or whatever
Poised
10:49
Will the rise of park adjusted statistics ever bring the Rockies to an even playing field when signing free agent pitchers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
I don't think the pitchers care about the statistics so much as they care about what it's like to actually pitch in Colorado
No pitcher can really know how his stuff will be affected in thinner air. Makes for a nerve-wracking experience
That's never going away
Grover
10:51
What's your gut telling you Kershaw does this offseason?  Opt in?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
Really hard for me to see him opting out at this point
cowdisciple
10:51
Should the Nationals think about approaching Soto with an extension?  What would that look like?  Something like, say, 10 years/150 million would be a lot of money for a teenager to turn down...
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
The Nationals should absolutely be trying to get Soto signed ASAP. Soto's agent, whoever that is, should not make it easy
10:53
Soto signed with the Nationals in the first place for $1.5 million, so maybe he's not quite so hard up for money. The Nationals are going to float numbers anyone would find hard to resist
10:54
Soto is better than what Scott Kingery was when he signed his deal
10:55
He's better than Tim Anderson, Paul DeJong, early Salvador Perez...
brood550
10:56
Reynaldo Lopez looks like he's working with 2 new pitches.  Is he primed for a breakout next year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
Right now I don't see a compelling reason to believe that he is
Billy Beane
10:57
Hey Jeff, obviously writing about baseball makes you experience it in a different way than the average fan, so are you as upset about the Mariner's fall in the wildcard standings as Editor of the Hardball Times/shark that attacks Jason Statham Meg Rowley is?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
No, I think the fandom is more or less dead. It's not so much that I don't care about the Mariners -- it's more that, over time, I've come to form relationships with different people who work for different teams, and at a certain point you just want your friends to be successful
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