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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/17/18
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Dosh Jonaldson
10:26
Though it's not nearly as good as it was expected to be 12 months ago, the quality of the upcoming free agent class, plus the imminent arrival of Vlad Jr and Co has me wondering if the Blue Jays will try to execute a quick turnaround this offseason by bringing in 2-3 mid-tier FAs. They do have a lot of money coming off the books. Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I do think the Jays will enter the 2019 season thinking of themselves as a potential WC team
10:27
It's going to take some work, but with the high-level players already in the organization, there's no need to tear it all down to the studs. They can win more than half of their ballgames
Pity the poor 2019 Orioles. They're going to get obliterated
Conner from AZ
10:28
Great piece on the Diamondbacks. I'm curious what type of offsetting effect there is in relation to the Diamondbacks catchers and their offense/defense. Sure they may be the best game-callers and pitch framers around. But, John Ryan Murphy and Jeff Mathis are running wRC+ of 70 and 53 respectively. Feels like most of the good they are doing behind the plate is negated by the fact that they are black holes in the lineup, no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
The median team's catchers this year have been about 5 runs below average, offensively. The Diamondbacks' catchers have been 16 runs below average, offensively. So the Diamondbacks' catchers have been about 11 runs worse at the plate than the benchmark
10:30
The Diamondbacks would definitely tell you their catchers are more than 11 runs above average, *defensively*
They appear to be there on framing alone, to say nothing of the presently-unquantifiable game-calling and leadership aspects
Perennial Ballboy Tryout
10:30
Ever been to Rocky Mountain National Park? It's amazing.
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
Not for nearly long enough. There are so many beautiful places
I'm kind of a completionist. There are so many natural areas I still have yet to visit, but then, I've made it my goal to become familiar with like every last inch of Mount Hood
Mac Gwire
10:31
If you were the Yankees in the WC game, would you rather play Oakland, a better overall team, or Seattle and Paxton?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I'd rather play Oakland. If you play Seattle, you face the prospect of maybe getting Paxton and Diaz for seven or eight of nine innings
10:33
Oakland has a strong bullpen, but nothing remotely comparable up front. And Paxton might even work to negate that RF short porch
John
10:34
Is Greg Bird ever going to happen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Admittedly, I'm losing faith, but I still lean a little toward yes
Luke
10:35
Which team would you say is the best in the National League right now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Dodgers, if they get a healthy Jansen back
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
10:35
So are we just not going to do anything about headhunting until someone gets killed? We go through this multiple times every year.
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
In fairness, Urena was more bodyhunting than headhunting. But, yes, it's all very tired
Vslyke
10:36
The Pirates direction baffles me - they went out and traded a ton to add controllable pitching but even still they project as the third best team (at best) in their division over the next couple of years. Are they going to finally have to do a full rebuild in a couple of years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
It depends a little on how they continue to operate. If they continue to try to concentrate their assets, then yeah, at some point it'll come crumbling down. But maybe the Archer move was more of a one-off. And given that the Pirates haven't gained any real WC ground, it already doesn't look great
10:38
I feel like, a year or two down the road, there's a good chance that trade is going to look like a disaster
carrotjuice
10:38
If the Tigers were willing to eat the entirety of Jordan Zimmermann's salary, would kind of prospects would they get back?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
A month ago, I would've said a solid B prospect. Now I'm more around a couple of C prospects, because Zimmermann has slumped again
Conner from AZ
10:40
Why don't we see more holdouts in baseball like we do in football? Seems like the most justified holdouts would be baseball players on pre-arb deals tearing up the league
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
In football, players are incentivized to try to get as much money as possible whenever they can, because they're forever on the verge of some kind of career-ending injury
The average football career is incredibly short. Baseball players aren't doing so much damage to their bodies, plus their contracts are also guaranteed
10:43
This isn't a full explanation, and I don't know if we've seen the last of the MLB holdouts. I don't know what would happen if, say, the next Mike Trout held out before his last pre-arb year
10:44
The owners would do everything in their power to make sure that guy didn't get what he wants, because think of the precedent that would set for all other talented young players in the league to follow
10:45
But this is the balance they have to strike, keeping the players happy enough with initial salaries to avoid further problem. Ideally, down the road, more money is shifted toward the start of a player's career, when that amount of money matters the most
Mike Fish
10:45
How many wins does Boston finish with?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
109 or something. Far enough away from the record that they don't hesitate to use the last week or two for rest
Will
10:46
Michael Perez has been raking for the Rays so far. What's his outlook next year - is he a legit starting catcher?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
His Triple-A wRC+ was 99
10:47
If he's as good as they say in the field, he'll get an opportunity to play as a semi-regular, but the Rays would at least want to pair him with someone else who can handle a big workload
Rod
10:48
What would Ender Inciarte bring back in a trade in the offseason?  Possible the Braves could try to move him instead of trading a bunch of the pitching prospects?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Inciarte would bring a pretty good return, because he's got another 3-4 years of affordable club control, and he remains one of the best defensive outfielders on the planet
For the same reasons, I don't think the Braves should deal him away. He's important to them, even without him hitting like he used to
Guest
10:49
Thoughts about the AL West?
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