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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/17/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:50
More interesting than I expected it to be
But I refuse to even consider the possibility that the Astros won't finish in first
They are so much better than the other teams are
Mac Gwire
10:51
Which NL team do you most want to see in the playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
I want the Brewers to make it, because I want FanGraphs product August Fagerstrom to make it. Outside of them, I don't really care
stever20
10:52
at what game point would the Dodgers get really concerned?  2 down with 40 to go right now.
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
Considering they were eight back three months ago, I don't think they're panicking yet. They know they're the most talented team in the division
10:53
Now, it would be something if the Dodgers really did end up on the outside looking in. That would be a fascinating outcome. Not there yet
Mike
10:54
By BaseRuns/Pythagorean records, the Nats would be in a wild card spot. Just bad luck for the Nats or is there more to it?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
Some of it is bad luck -- they're 12-21 in one-run games. And some of it is because they beat the Mets 25-4
10:55
The recent bullpen problems haven't helped. Injuries have really dealt a blow to what the Nationals were hoping to accomplish all year long
Cardinals.Network
10:57
Thoughts on Harrison Bader’s long term potential?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
The approaches are different, so this doesn't work as a literal comp, but just because he's in my head now, I think Bader will have value similar to being a right-handed Inciarte
10:58
Enough bat to look more or less league-average. Baserunning and defense to put him over the top. Will spend several years being a tremendously underrated player
Southi
10:58
Before Moncada came up he was consistently ranked higher than Albies in most evaluations despite having a decent amount of swing and miss in his game.  Ozzie was younger but was already expected to be a more complete player just with less power potential.  I still don't understand why prospects with greater power upside yet serious concerns are usually ranked higher than guys who have a complete toolshed but sub average power tools.  I know that their limited time in the bigs doesn't mean in the long run Albies is better, but it sure looks to be a high probability of that being the case.
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
There's long been a bias in prospect circles toward favoring upside. With Moncada, you could imagine a ceiling of him being one of the best players in the world. Aside from that, we're just in an era where the ball is lively, and so many middling-power types are getting to the bigs and finding out they can hit the ball just far enough to get out
11:00
Used to be, you needed to have pretty good power to slug .450 in the majors. Not the case anymore, so the true real-world value of plus power in the minors has been reduced
mb
11:01
I'm feeling pretty down about the Brewers. Don't think they can hold onto a playoff spot. Do you have any more optimism than I do?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Probably not
But they do still have a 1.5-game lead over the next team behind them. That's enough to tilt things slightly in the Brewers' favor
Dustin
11:02
My understanding is you work almost exclusively at home ... do you go with dead silence when you write, or do you roll with some sort of music or TV for background noise?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Air conditioner sometimes, but I don't like to be distracted when I'm writing. I'll listen to music when I'm doing research or looking at video
I don't even like writing in the same room as my phone because some of my friends text me too god damn much
You know who you are
Andre
11:03
Should the Mariners try to find a pitcher via waiver wire or just ride it out till the end of the season and hope for decent production from Felix and quick return from Paxton?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
If anything half-decent is available out there, they should be pouncing on it
john cale
11:04
Are you buying Jurickson Profar as a 3-4 win player? It's nice seeing him smash that bust label with regular playing time and good health.
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
I'll buy him at 3. I've been monitoring him all season, and it's just a good and warm feeling to see him finally having health and success
Doesn't seem like he's a shortstop anymore, but he's a good hitter with defensive versatility. Glad he's back on the radar
LFC Mike
11:05
It is looking questionable if Trevor Bauer might pitch again this season. That is a HUGE blow to the Indians. He has been fantastic this year...maybe considered their ace.
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
Yes
Mac Gwire
11:05
Who is the biggest name traded before the 31st?
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
Pick a National
Daniel Murphy?
Brian
11:06
What does an extension\new contract for Nelson Cruz look like? Should Seattle try to keep him?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
He's 38 years old and he hasn't slowed down, so if I'm Seattle I try to keep him for two years or, even better than that, one year with some kind of vesting option
11:07
He'll have a limited FA market as an old DH. The Mariners shouldn't have to end up committing something stupid
Will
11:08
If you could only afford to spend big on FA on one position, what would it be?
Jeff Sullivan
11:08
Center field or something, because defense is *still* underrated
Fat Matt
11:08
Who would you rather be forced to talk baseball with...Keith Hernandez or Goose Gossage?
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