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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/24/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
[REDACTED]
9:04
Ronald Acuna Jr. for the entire Mariners Farm System, who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Let's check in on The Board! https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx
The Mariners don't have a single top-100 prospect https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018updated&type=0&pos...
9:06
Their best prospect currently has an FV estimation of 45
9:07
The most recent numbers I've seen value a 45 FV prospect around $11-13 million https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/
Acuna is probably already worth $150-200 million or more
9:08
Let me just simplify this -- the Braves say no
9:09
I mean, you could eventually sum up enough prospects to equal Acuna's estimated value, but that's like trading one 10-WAR player for 20 0.5-WAR players
9:10
Nevermind the logistical headache
James
9:10
The Royals are 17-60 outside of their division. If they were in the west, might we be looking at the worst team ever?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Although the Royals suck and play in a sucky division, a major reason why it's a sucky division is because of the Royals, who never get to play against themselves
9:12
The Royals are currently at 7.9 combined team WAR
The 2003 Tigers finished at 1.7 combined team WAR
Even adjusting for schedules, those Tigers were worse. They were so bad
Ross
9:14
So the Giants are toast. Where’s McCutchen moved before the end of August? And would Denard Span have helped them more than Longoria has?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Pretty easy to say now that Span has looked better than Longoria. Don't know if the Giants should've seen that coming, but now Longoria is their burden, and their burden only
9:16
Not that Christian Arroyo has had an outstanding season with Tampa Bay
9:17
One obvious would-be destination for McCutchen is Cleveland, but with them being in the AL, McCutchen would have to clear NL waivers first
9:18
The Rockies should be somewhat interested
And there's an argument, albeit a weakening one, for the Cardinals too
9:19
McCutchen won't be in any great demand, however. Decent chance he could make it to the Indians
Will
9:19
Any idea who the Braves could add for a LH bench bat? They tried to get Matt Adams but the Cardinals' claim won out.
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
And apparently they tried to claim the right-handed Mark Reynolds!
9:22
Curtis Granderson cleared waivers, right?
I just went through a quick query of left-handed bats. If not Granderson himself, then someone around that level would presumably fit
Brian Snits
9:23
With 34 games left, the Nationals are 8.5 back of the Braves and 6.5 back of the 2nd Wild Card. They are done, right? Playoffs odds is giving them an 8% chance to make the playoffs, which seems way too high.
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
Our regular playoff odds put them at 7.7%
Using season-to-date stats mode, though, instead of the projections-based model, then the Nationals are at...7.4% instead
9:26
Don't overlook the fact that these playoff odds are still very low. The Nationals are basically screwed. But they're not *totally* screwed. Remember, their run differential is 61 runs better than the Phillies'
It's 72 runs better than the Rockies'
The Nationals have a mediocre record, but that doesn't mean they suck, or that they have sucked
Jack
9:28
Could a dark horse team to trade for J.T. Realmuto this offseason (assuming the Marlins can’t sign him and make him available) be the Rays? They have the need at catcher, depending on what you  think of Michael Perez, and the prospect depth to pull off a trade. The Pham move kind of did it, but trading for Realmuto would really be statement that they want to contend next year. Sure, there’s pretty much no chance they could sign him long term, but they’d get two years of him and he’d make them a strong contender for the second Wild Card
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
I'd be surprised, but I wouldn't be stunned, for the reasons you outline
9:30
Next year's Rays should look pretty good, and they'll probably have to do *something* at catcher. It wouldn't be like them to push some chips in for a shorter-term addition, but Realmuto is so good you can see why they'd zag in that direction
9:32
The advantage of getting Pham was that his stock was down. Realmuto is as valuable as ever. So the Rays couldn't slide in and try to pay pennies on the dollar. But maybe they decide to get bold and trade for Realmuto and one of the Marlins' cost-controlled relievers
squeeze bunt
9:32
What changed to make Aaron Nola a front line starter?  When he was drafted it was more a mid rotation back end profile, I think.
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
That's because those profiles are based so much around fastball velocity. They lack for imagination. Aaron Nola doesn't throw overwhelmingly hard, so it might've been hard to picture him as an ace
But he throws hard enough, his changeup has come around well in the past 1.5 years, and his breaking ball is as good as anyone's in the major leagues
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